Home Sales UP .4% in November, in the West UP 10.3%

Homes sales are increasing here in the West! I like that! I think we have hit a bottom in the number of homes sold, but prices still will come down. But are they coming down? Or are they down and sellers just don't know it yet!
As interest rates and prices continue to drop, buyers are stepping back into the market. I sold 3 homes to buyers this month. All three felt prices may go down further, but the home they bought was a good buy. What is a good buy? They were homes that were priced right for today's market. The buyers might be able to buy the same floor plan for less in the spring. But it won't be the same home. It won't be the same lot. It won't have the same up grades. They are all in for the long term and wanted to make a smart purchase for their family. In each case, they were the perfect home for the buyers. Ones that would be difficult to replace. This is what sellers must keep in mind. Why would a buyer write an offer on my home?

"By JEANNINE AVERSA,
AP
Posted: 2007-12-31 11:30:58
WASHINGTON (AP) - Sales of previously owned homes inched up in November but that didn't change the overall bleak picture for an ailing housing industry that has been suffering through a painful slump.The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that sales of existing single-family homes, condominiums and townhouses rose 0.4 percent in November from October, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 million units. Over the last 12 months, however, existing home sales have plunged 20 percent, underscoring the troubles in the housing sector.Economists were calling for sales to either move up slightly or hold steady for November...
...Sales were mixed across different regions of the country.Existing home sales jumped 10.3 percent in November from October in the West. They were flat in the Midwest. However, they fell by 2 percent in the South and by 3.3 percent in the Northeast"
Read the full story through the link below:
http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/home-sales-edge-up-04-percent/n20071231113009990006

Lane at Bel Esprit, SOLD, 4044 E. Anderson Drive

That is another home sold and closed by The Cameron Team. This home located in Lane at Bel Esprit, the Foothills neighborhood at Tatum and Bell in North East Phoenix. We sold this home to our own buyer. On average 2.5% of homes are sold by the listing agent, with this sale we continue our record of averaging 12-15% of our listings sold by our team. Are you interested why? Just give me a call to review!

Happy New Year!

Jeff Cameron

New-Home Sales Tumbled 9% in November from October

New home sales and New home permits dropping is a good thing. Buyers are finding better deals on the resale market. We are looking for the bottom in permits and then to see the New Home sales begin to pick up. So far this holiday season we have not seen the dramatic drop in resale home inventory. Last year inventory levels dropped around 15% from their peak in September to the first of the year. This year inventory levels have only dropped about 5%, but the year is not over yet.

In the ..."West, however, sales rose 4 percent. "

By JEANNINE AVERSA,
Associated Press
Posted: 2007-12-28 13:43:36
WASHINGTON (AP) - The housing market plunged deeper into despair last month, with sales of new homes plummeting to their lowest level in more than 12 years. The slump worsened even more than most analysts expected, heightening fears that the country might be thrust into a recession.
http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/home-sales-plunge-feed-recession-fears/n20071228134309990011

CONGRATULATIONS TO THE DECEMBER EMAIL CONTEST WINNERS!

The monthly email contest is back. We had about 30 of you respond and enter for the drawing. The prize this month was a $100 Visa gift card. Perfect timing for the Holidays. Our winner received the $100 gift card on Saturday December 22nd.
The winners are Mike and JoAnna Broady! Congratulations to Mike and JoAnna. Mike and JoAnna bought a home through The Cameron Team. They found us through our website, relocating from California.

Remember to watch for our easy to enter monthly email drawing. We have a lot of great prizes to give away. Each month we will send an email with a simple question answered by linking back to our website to find that answer. Then just email the answer along with who you are, your contact information. We don't know everyone by their email address.

RE/MAX 2000 CLOSES 13 OFFICES IN METRO PHOENIX

It's happening...the bursting real estate bubble is starting to shows signs of its terrific strength. This weekend RE/MAX 2000 shut its doors. If you have a home under contract through them, no worries, the closing will not affect your closing. Some 350 agents have to switch brokers, or, well some were probably not really in business any more. Also, 20 salaried positions were lost. This is why I was so happy to see a positive jobs report for November. I know real estate, title and mortgage companies are dropping like flies. We still created jobs, even though this industry is falling apart. Well the GOOD NEWS is the strong will survive. That is why my team is still hear, still at the office every day and STILL SELLING HOMES! We have 4 sales for December, are in contract negotiations and I was going to write an offer yesterday, but another buyer beat us to the home. Just goes to say, even in a buyer's market when you find the right home don't hesitate.
What's next? I think many more companies will close and people will loose their jobs. I heard a report last week that in California, they are expecting 40% of the real estate agents that were in the business January of 2007, to be out of business by January of 2008. We in Arizona, tend to follow the California trends.
If I were looking for a real estate agent right now, I would make sure I hired a full time, successful and experienced agent. These newbies and the churn of real estate agents is part of why we have a bubble. I can't say I am happy we are in a buyer's market, but I am pleased with some of the results. Hopefully, this will make some permanent changes to the Realtors and Loan officers. One for each would be that new real estate agents go through a period of a 2 years in apprenticeship and for lenders they need to be licensed.

ARIZONA CARDINALS 30 ATLANTA FALCONS 27

Yes, we can win a game. Even if it takes an overtime victory to beat the lowly Atlanta Falcons. With the depletion of our defense to injuries, any victory now is awesome. The Cardinals have a chance next Sunday to finish the season 8 wins and 8 losses. Nothing for most to jump up and down over, but for the Arizona Cardinals this would be their 3rd non-loosing season since moving to Arizona 19 years ago. With that in mind, you can understand how this last game is REAL important to a fan like me. Let's prove things have changed!
Next year would be great if:
1. Our franchise quarterback stays healthy and matures to success.
2. We upgrade a few positions, like defensive backs!
3. We re-sign our key player and loose none to free agency.
4. Our depth keeps the injury bug from striking so hard. Understanding there will be injuries.
5. We go from the most penalized team to one of the least penalized teams. Top 5!
6. We have double digit victories.
7. We win our division.
8. We go beyond the first round of the playoffs and have a playoff victory.
9. Our 12th player helps us win every home game.
10. We do what no Arizona Cardinals team has done before!
Just another Cardinals fan!
Has this year been fun watching the play of Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald? The first half of the season our defense was awesome. Ken, get this team healthy, add some depth, get us a shut down corner and a partner for Adrian Wilson, get Neil Rackers a shrink, re-sign our good players, get some great draft picks and continue to be a GREAT COACH. This team has so much talent, I want to see them succeed before they get old or move on to success with other teams. I have been saying all year 2008 would be our year, I meant in the playoffs. Now I understand I must have meant the 2008 regular season! We shall see, ANY GIVEN SUNDAY!

Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007

It is bad enough to loose your home to foreclosure or sell in a short sale, but then the bank comes after you for the deficiency and if you don't pay they 1099 you for the debt forgiveness. What does that mean "they 1099 you for the debt forgiveness." They send notification to the IRS that you were forgiven for tens of thousands of dollars and the IRS taxes you for that. Talk about hitting someone when they are down. The borrower can BK the debt, but with the new law, the only way is through FULL liquidation. You loose it all. However, you cannot BK the tax debt.
Let's say for example purposes, a borrower owed $400,000 in mortgage debt. The market turned and the home was sold in a short sale for $275,000. The borrower would get a deficiency judgement for all the cost of the lender; $125,0000 difference in sales price and payoff, $25,000 in closing costs, $10,000 to $30,000 in holding costs, $20,000 to $50,000 in charges related to the foreclosure process. So, the borrower could be hit will a 1099 for as much as $230,000 in deficiency. Then let's say they are in a 25% tax bracket, they would owe the IRS $57,000 in taxes. This does not go away. No BK, no nothing. The IRS is there for ever.
Friday, the president signed into law the bill, HR 3648, the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007. This law is retroactive to January 1, 2007 and last 3 years. I read it to relieve borrowers of the IRS taxes during this time for debt relief. This is a big step at helping people that the real estate bubble hurt badly. They can see light at the end of the tunnel. I look forward to more information on the bill. They are usually quite long and will have many specifications. One being this is for personal residence only. Check with your Tax advisor if this applies to you.
http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2007/12/senates-mortgag.html

One more step to helping this crisis. There are 2 more steps I believe they should take:
1. In California, the state with most of the foreclosures, the bank cannot go after the borrower for the deficiency on their principal residence. This should be the rule nation wide. You loose your home and the bank hits you with a HUGE judgement. You are now forced to BK or ride out the judgement. You just lost your largest investment of your life, why be forced to BK and loose everything else. If you loose your home, you probably are not in a position to pay $50K, $100K or even in the example above $230k back to the bank.

2. The second step I believe should be taken is to give borrowers an incentive to sell in a short sale, rather than living in the home for free until foreclosure. One may say, the short sale saves their credit. But no, banks are so strict in that after 3 30 day lates occur on your mortgage your credit is destroyed. I am told there very little difference between one borrower that had 3 30 day lates occur and got caught up versus a borrower that went all the way to foreclosure. They need to change this position. I believe they will in the future, but people need to know now. That way they will take the extra steps to sell short rather than just live for FREE and move on.

WHY THE FED MUST LOWER RATES FURTHER

First of all, wow, our economy was on the verge of surging this year. Then the housing bubble burst. The bursting has not stopped the economy at this point. Can you imagine what it would have been like if another 250,000 houses were being built, furnished, landscaped and filled with new exciting toys! I believe the housing issue will take more than 1% from GDP this year, yet we grew at 4.9% last quarter, that is an economy ON FIRE!
However, we do have the housing issue and the Fed needs to act more aggressively so we can turn the corner. I hear many talking heads saying lower interest rates is what caused the problem. LOW INTEREST RATES DID NOT CAUSE THE PROBLEM. The problem was caused by widespread loan fraud by un-licensed loan officers no longer in the business. It was not only their fault, we all owe a little responsibility. Why is the loan fraud the major cause? Buyers bought homes they could not afford. People that should not be investors, became investors. Demand swelled, thus driving prices higher. Lenders then made it easier to get wacky financing. Appraiser, the supposed check and balance, gave ridiculous valuations. Even after the peak in 2005, appraiser let homes continue to appreciate. It was over but some buyers and their real estate team ignored the end, stretching the bubble even further. As it stretched into 2007, I thought wow we made it, 2006 was the slow down. "We are 18 months from the peak, supply was dropping demand was increasing," I too was fooled. Then the first sub-prime blow up in March! It was an eye opener. But most people would not fully grasp what was happening. It was hard for me to convence people, after being the naysayer through most of 2006.
Today there are new steps being taken to stop the growth of demand. Too bad this wasn't done in the peak, instead they waited till we were on the way down to make it worse. However, appraisers have stricter guidelines, lenders have new guidelines, many of the loan products available before are just gone and demand is down with supply growing.
I was talking with one of the commercial experts at the office yesterday, Tim Theiss. Our discussion was about investors and what was then and where we are today. We both heard many investors say, "let's do $0 down or very little down" for our investment property. You see, a real investor has 20-30% to put down and understands that is needed to keep the cash flow positive. The new guidelines are putting the real investors back in the saddle for investing. No more low down investor lending.
I started this blog off with the Fed needs to lower further. They do. Many talking heads are saying that was the problem, it wasn't. It was loan fraud and ridiculously eased guidelines that was the problem. You see today, we have a supply and demand imbalance. To fix that we need to decrease supply and increase demand. The way to decrease supply is to stop the foreclosures (another day), stop building new homes and rent those vacant properties. To increase demand we need to lower prices, lower interest rates and create stability in the marketplace.
By lowering prices and lowering interest rates demand will jump. Both of these will bring more buyers into the pool of available buyers for a specific product by increasing what they can buy and how much they can spend. By making those two changes, buyers will step back into the market and make purchases. As demand picks up, stability will begin to regain strength in the market place.
Why will this not restart the problem? Because these buyers will not be getting teaser rates. I believe most will opt for the 30 year mortgages, since the pricing is close to the same as 3, 5 and 7 year pricing. Thus giving them long term comfort in the loan. Now, the lending side will be more strict, also keeping buyers from getting into the wrong loan or over paying for a home.
Lower interest rates is not the problem, it is the answer!

Arizona November JOBS report HOT OFF THE PRESS

14,400 New Jobs for November! Right on! A new RECORD! However, the unemployment rate jumped to 4.1%, from the previous 3.5%. Construction continued its slide loosing 3,100 and Professional and business services lost 1,300 jobs. I have to wonder if that is all the loan officers, title agents and real estate agents that have lost their jobs. I must say I believe that number is much higher. I don't know how they could count the Realtors out of work, because they can continue to hang their license even though they are out of a job. The word I hear from all the active Realtors I talk to is their offices are morgues.
I am very happy to see we are still creating jobs. The low unemployment across the country is keeping us from recession right now. Let's hope that trend continues. Keep them employed and they will keep spending money. Keep spending money and we keep creating jobs!
OVERALL, I see this as great news for Arizona!

FROM THE REPORT:
"Arizona’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in November. While the state’s jobless rate increased six-tenths of one percent from October, the November rate is at the same level as one year ago and below the national rate, which remained at 4.7 percent for
the third consecutive month.
Arizona’s economy added 14,400 jobs in November to reach a record total of 2,753,500 nonfarm jobs. The gain was less than what is normally expected for the month of November.
But over-the-year employment growth for Arizona (1.5 percent) remains above the U.S. growth rate (1 percent)."

Read the full report through the link below:
http://www.workforce.az.gov/admin/uploadedPublications/2631_PrDec07.pdf

Morgan Stanley Post Loss on 4Q $9.4 Billion Writedown

AP
Posted: 2007-12-19 07:56:04
NEW YORK (AP) - Morgan Stanley , the No. 2 U.S. investment bank, on Wednesday reported a larger-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter loss due to a $9.4 billion write down from its exposure to sub prime and other mortgage-related investments. The company also said China's government-controlled investment vehicle, China Investment Corp., has invested $5 billion to help replenish its capital. And Chairman and Chief Executive John Mack said because of the poor performance, he would not take a bonus this year.

This will probably move the stock market lower today. Wow, writing down over $9 billion in investments. So, if their portfolio of mortgage backed securities is diversified and they are taking $9 billion in write downs for this quarter, how much do they own in mortgage backed securities. The failure rate could be as high as 25% if most are sub prime, but they don't loose all the money. When they foreclose they should recapture at least 50% of their investment, unlike investing in ENRON.

read the full story:
http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/morgan-stanley-post-loss-on-4q-writedown/n20071219075609990004

US Foreclosure Filings Up 68 Pct in November

LOS ANGELES (AP) - U.S. homeowners increasingly failed to keep up with their home loan payments in November, as the number of foreclosure filings surged 68 percent nationwide compared with the same month a year ago, according to a mortgage research company. In all, 201,950 foreclosure filings were reported last month, compared with 120,334 in November 2006, Irvine-based RealtyTrac Inc. said Wednesday.

Supply and Demand are the biggest issues affecting our housing market. The increase in foreclosures is increasing the supply of homes for sale. Thus with an imbalance this will drive prices lower.

Read the whole story below:

http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/us-foreclosure-filings-up-68-pct-in-nov/n20071219052909990002

Luminary and Asia de Cuba

It was Lisa's birthday on Friday. We spent the day together and had a grand day! We got the kids off to school and headed for a 2 hour massage. After the massage, we had lunch at White Chocolate Grill. From there we went to the Cine Capri and watched "I am Legend." I really enjoyed the movie, Lisa didn't like it as much. The running action on the screen made her stomach a little queasy.
That evening we went to the Luminary at the Botanical Gardens. It was cold, but we had fun. If you haven't been, dress warm. Even bring a blanket depending on the night. The stars were out and the chill was in the air, but it was a beautiful evening. We enjoyed some Jazz music, sipped hot chocolate and strolled along the trail. After the Luminary we went to dinner.
Dinner was at Asia de Cuba, located in the Mondrian Hotel in down town Scottsdale. It was a culinary delight. The restaurant is all white, the staff wears white cloths, the tables are white, the bar was white and the art was white. It was a very modern look. The restaurant combines elements of Asian and Cuban cuisine in a sharing style format. We went for the chef's sampler. It included calamari salad, beef spring roll, tuna tar tar, and as the main dishes we enjoyed whitefish and pork. For desert Lisa went for the Chocolate cake, she loves Chocolate. Everything was delicious and the service was perfect. My favorite was the whitefish, it was marinated and had a sweet twang to it. We started the evening with Martinis and then went into the appetizers. The tuna was fresh and tasty. I was very impressed by the Calamari salad, the chef blended some unique flavors and it was delicious. We enjoyed our evening at Asia de Cuba.

NFL Experience Tickets on sale today

If you are a football fan, then the NFL Experience is a must. It is a great family outing! Lisa and I went to the one in Pasadena and the one in San Diego. We missed the one here 12 years ago. The event is every year in the city where the Super Bowl is being played. We have had a great time at each of the events. I highly suggest attending this year in Glendale. You can get tickets and find out more about the NFL experience at the link below.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8027f91d&template=without-video&confirm=true

Another Listing Sold By The Cameron Team!

One of our past client from Scottsdale, referred a client from Texas that had a home in Mesa! This home had been on the market for over a year without selling. The Cameron Team took over the listing and got it SOLD in 28 days!!

Fed's Battle Plans For Today's Credit Crisis

The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the Fed Funds rate and Discount rate by 1/4% each yesterday. The market was not happy with that, looking for deeper cuts, and the DOW fell by nearly 300 points. Today the Federal Reserve expanded more on their plan to combat issues in our market. Mainly they are offering liquidity by making funds available for banks to borrow.
This is why so many mortgage companies failed earlier this year. Their source of funds dried up and they were forced to shut their doors overnight. The Federal Reserve along with other central banks, European Central Bank, the central banks of England, Canada and Switzerland, to confront what it called elevated pressures in the credit markets. The Fed will create a temporary auction facility to make funds available for the financial markets during this credit crisis. The market was very pleased with this plan and the DOW rallied.
It makes a lot of sense that lower rates are part of what caused this problem and won't necessarily fix the problem. This plan of making funds available to the credit markets is good. Lenders closed their doors earlier this year due to their source of funds being turned off. Now they will have a place to turn for temporary relief and not be in a do or die situation from their source investors. Only time will tell and I hope they are right.

Intercepting Iran’s Take on America by Thomas Friedman

My blog does not usually take a turn on the political side. But I read this article today by Thomas Friedman and felt compelled to share it with you! I firmly believe we must become energy independent in the reasonable future for our country to continue to be strong, competitive and safe. "Political" is such a difficult term. Both sides of the aisle have answers that need to come together to make this happen. TODAY we have the technology to build cars that get 100 mpg. But WE don't fully understand how much this kind of technology is essential to our long term growth, success, defense...they all fit.
Yes, the market will find the solution over time. However, we need to ask at what cost are we waiting for market to find its way. We need to fast forward for OUR sake!

Intercepting Iran’s Take on America
this By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Published: December 5, 2007
There are two intelligence analyses that are relevant to the balance of power between the U.S. and Iran — one is the latest U.S. assessment of Iran, which certainly gave a much more complex view of what is happening there. The other is the Iranian National Intelligence Estimate of America, which — my guess — would read something like this:

To: President Ahmadinejad
From: The Iranian Ministry of Intelligence
Subject: America
As you’ll recall, in the wake of 9/11, we were extremely concerned that the U.S. would develop a covert program to end its addiction to oil, which would be the greatest threat to Iranian national security. In fact, after Bush’s 2006 State of the Union, in which he decried America’s oil addiction, we had “high confidence” that a comprehensive U.S. clean energy policy would emerge. We were wrong.
Our fears that the U.S. was engaged in a covert “Manhattan Project” to achieve energy independence have been “assuaged.” America’s Manhattan Project turns out to be largely confined to the production of corn ethanol in Iowa, which, our analysts have confirmed from cellphone intercepts between lobbyists and Congressmen, is nothing more than a multibillion-dollar payoff to big Iowa farmers and agro-businesses.
True, thanks to Nancy Pelosi, the U.S. Congress decided to increase the miles per gallon required of U.S. car fleets by the year 2020 — which took us by surprise — but we nevertheless “strongly believe” this will not lead to any definitive breaking of America’s oil addiction, since none of the leading presidential candidates has offered an energy policy that would include a tax on oil or carbon that could trigger a truly transformational shift in America away from fossil fuels.
Therefore, it is “very likely” that Iran’s current level of high oil revenues will last for decades and insulate our regime from any decisive pressures from abroad or from our own people.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/opinion/05friedman.html?n=Top/Opinion/Editorials%20and%20Op-Ed/Op-Ed/Columnists/Thomas%20L%20Friedman

Inventory of Single Family Homes drops by 948 over the past week

OK, now that is what I want to see. Inventory levels of Single Family Homes throughout the metro Phoenix area dropped by 948, to a level of 46,320. That is good to see, but we need to see more. I would like to see a drop of 6,000 homes by the first of the year. Only time will tell, let's see what happens.

Another Home Sold By The Cameron Team!

Another listing sold in Lane at Bel Esprit. Once again The Cameron Team is the #1 Listing Agent in this neighborhood, 12 years running now!! In this case, we sold this listing to our own buyer!

Mountain Biking in McDowell Mountains

Rain or shine it's best to just ride as much as you can! I went for a quick ride Saturday morning in between the showers. I left my garage and 2 minutes later I am on the trail. One of my favorite things about living in McDowell Mountain Ranch is access to so many awesome trails. And they are great, thrilling trails! The trail was pretty trashed from the rain. There were big ruts and I rode all day over pure rock. The dirt and sand was washed away! It was beautiful on the trail, I had a great ride. Just after arriving home, the rain started again. I picked the perfect time. Any of you who like to ride, contact me. Let's GO!

Buyer's Choosing Vacant Homes

In reviewing the numbers, I am seeing a trend with buyers and vacant homes. While 41%of the homes for sale today are vacant, 51% of the Pending homes are vacant and 45% of the sold and closed homes are vacant. Thus buyers are choosing vacant homes at a greater rate than of those occupied and that trend is increasing.
Why???
In short, regardless of why the home is vacant, those sellers are more motivated than occupied property sellers. That is it, short and simple!

McDowell Mountain Ranch Annual Home Sales

It looks as though 2007 is going to end up very close to 2006, as far as home sales go in McDowell Mountain Ranch. Given all the Pending Sales as of December 1st close escrow in 2007, we will have 210 home sales for this year in McDowell Mountain Ranch. That is only slightly lower than the 216 sales of last year. However, sales have dropped more than 50% from the peak in 2003. Oh, shocked you there, huh. You expected 2004 or 2005 as a peak? Many people are unaware of the fact that the inventory of homes for sale was diminished by high sales in 2003, that sparked the run up in 2004. Then in 2005, even though price rose all year long, so did inventory levels. Looking at the graph, we see today's sales levels are 27% below the sales in 2000. Sooner or later the buyers will come back to into the market. That will increase sales, lower inventory and move this market from a buyer's market to a more neutral market. Well buyers, you have a great selection of homes, interest rates are back below 6% and you are in control. Get out there and buy a home!

Home Inventory Falls, Foothills Neighborhood at Tatum and Bell

Yes, we are off the highest level of single family homes for sale. In the "foothills," neighborhood (named due to elementary school) at Tatum and Bell in North East Phoenix, inventory levels of single family homes for sales peaked in September at 65 homes for sale. Today there are 54 homes for sale. That is a drop of 17%. This is one sign of what it will take to move from a buyer's market to a neutral market. I started tracking this neighborhood and a few others this year. I have been tracking the overall market for the past 3 years. What a great tool. I wish I was tracking back in 2003 and 2004. I would have forecast the "great sellers market" better.
For the past 11 years I have been the top agent in this neighborhood. My sales have dropped off, but I am still the top listing agent with 12% of the market share. My competition is 4 other agents with 2 sales each and then 73 one hit wonders. Not to sound rude, most of the agents are good agents. However, I get amazed at what some of the agents do. They just don't know the neighborhood very well and it can hurt their clients.

Beautiful Custom Home In Desert Hills -- Just Listed!

La Noches De Las Luminaries, LUMI is here

An evening filled with Dazzling Light Displays and Live Music, a Holiday tradition. The Lumi is put on at the Desert Botanical Garden and is now in it's 30th Year!

We have been in the past and are planning on enjoying it again this year. It is great for adults and older children, younger ones get tired of walking and cold. Parking can be a hassle so come early.

You can find out more and order tickets through the link below.

http://www.dbg.org/index.php/about/news/lumiscoming

Rocky Point Real Estate, Safe Investment?

With the real estate boom came the Mexican real estate boom. I know many people who successfully bought property in Mexico and enjoy it today. However, I always looked at the investment through a different eye, always concerned about the risk. Personally I have not heard of any of the problems I read about today. But the article I read at AZCentral.com helped me understand where that "eye" came from.

"PUERTO PEÑASCO, Sonora - U.S. investors, mostly from Arizona, have poured more than $100 million into beachfront homes, motels and land in the Sonoran vacation retreat known as Rocky Point, only to see their cash swallowed up by Mexican and U.S. developers who failed to build the projects."

read the entire article at the link below:
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/1125rockypoint1125.html

Sold and Closed by The Cameron Team in McDowell Mountain Ranch

16582 N. 104th Way closed escrow. Another success sold listing by The Cameron Team, a Presley home in The Summit at McDowell Mountain Ranch. The Cameron Team is #2 for sold listings in McDowell Mountain Ranch so far for 2007!

The sellers wrote as a testimonial:

"We had a very good experience with Jeff Cameron and The Cameron Team. They took our listing during a very serious downturn in the market, and worked with us to properly position the house in the market and achieve a good sale. The marketing work included attractive brochures, open houses, tours, timely updates on market conditions and price positions, and advice on presenting/staging the house. The team solicited and passed on good, constructive feedback from the majority of realtors who showed the house, which allowed us to improve our presentation. After we received our offer(s), Jeff advised us on their differences and counter-offer strategies, and we achieved a deal that was positive for both parties. Jeff and the team kept in close contact and worked with us to clear all the inspections and contingencies, and to finalize the deal through the escrow process. We greatly appreciate Jeff and The Cameron Team, and strongly recommend them to any prospective sellers as their listing agents"
Regards,
Cliff
Previous owner of 16582 N. 104th Way, Scottsdale, Arizona

Muddy Buddy Sponsors

Attention Sponsors:

Well we have about 1/4th of the donations collected. If you haven't yet sent your check, you can send it to our office:

Keller Williams High Desert Realty

Attn: The Cameron Team

11010 N. Tatum Blvd. Suite 101

Phoenix, AZ 85028

Also please make the check payable to: Living Without Limits

Check the chart to see what your total amount pledged is (click on the chart to enlarge it). We thank you for your sponsorship and pledge, it was a great motivation for Jeff to lose weight and be prepared for the Muddy Buddy event. Ben Comen and the Living Without Limits Foundation thanks you all too.

MUDDY BUDDY EXPERIENCE part 3 to end

Hopefully you have read part 1 and part 2 below, if not scroll down and start from the beginning! Thanks for the support.

...Ride baby ride!! The trail goes up hill. Cool I can do this! This is me, I am the "Billy Goat" as my homeys call me on the trail. The hill gets steep, I am passing bikers walking and runners. This gal pushing her bike looks over and says "good job man". Just then I spin out. I have running shoes, no clips. Normally I would pull up with my locked in shoes and continue. I spin out in the moon dust and am forced to push. I push at a run, I don't where that energy came from, but I go. It’s not far to the top, a left turn around, I remount and ride.

There is a big down hill road. This is why JT put me in this position. Down the hill I go. At first, I rest. Then I realize "why am I here" I hit the peddles and shift into the downhill gear. I peddle hard I pass bikers left and right. I am flying, probably over 30 mph. "On your left" I yell as I pass both bikers and runners again! I scream out, "I can't run, but I sure can ride." A rush of adrenalin as I use my strength. I ride down in to the park area and must slow due to congestion of people. DAMN! I can't get around. I see the next check point and obstacle.

The next obstacle is rope net climb. Probably 30+ feet. I drop the bike and head over. It is steep! Again I push the limit. I climb hand foot hand foot, go, go, go! Many others are with me and I feel proud not to be passed. I hit the top and throw myself over. It is a slide, but straight down. It was kinda scary or maybe I was loosing it. I slide down backward landing upside down. JT is laughing "You should have seen that, that was awesome" he says. Then "let's go this is the last leg". "No way," I say. "I ran first, there has to be two more segments." No, this is it. OK! I've decided right then and there, we made a mistake on positioning for the race. Next year I ride first and work to my strengths. Who cares about one crazy down hill, we need to switch next year.

This time JT stays with me, "no reason to get ahead at this point, we have to cross together." There is a rest room and I take a needed break. Normally the trails are empty. So, when I ride there is relief at any tree or bush. I've been holding it for a while. We continue, but now it's not too bad. A little rest and some flat land. JT is coaching me along. Another hill! I start up and am walking. Not AGAIN! Most bikers have to push up. JT disappears. Event people are around shouting words of support. "Your almost there", "Great Job", "keep going", it really does help. At the top of the hill, JT is waiting. It’s a down hill dirt trail. "Ooh this looks fun!" JT give me the bike, "I know you want to do this downhill, take the bike" he says. OK, so we cheated. It wasn't for times sake - our time was horrible but it was gnarly dirt downhill.

I take off cruising skidding but under control. I drop this hill, passing many bikers and runners. An awesome drop and turn emerges, 2 bikers and a runner congest the trail. I can't get around without risk to the others and myself. The trail is dirt, unlike the rocky granite trails at home. I'll take the hit. But I can't choose for them, I can't get around. So I slow and follow them around the drop and turn. Then more gradual downhill. Well to me, gradual, some bikers walk down the hill. We are entering the home stretch. Too many, the trail runs at the base of a hill, I ride up on the side of the hill to overpass a group of bikers and race for the finish. I am riding hard but we are hitting grass and the last transition to the MUD PIT! I see event guys waiving "off the bike" I slow down and dismount.

Entering the bike area I am confused on what to do next. JT - I see him back down the trail, the runners stop earlier and wait for their buddy to enter the mud pit together. I join him and some guy is taking off his camelback. I give my camelback to Kelley. I think, now this is a great service. Well, Cristy and Kelly, JT's sister and brother in law, were there to cheer us on. We gave our camelbacks and started to the finish.

JT says, "come on" and starts a full sprint. It was a couple hundred feet in the grass to the entrance of the mud pit. Exhaustion is no longer within me. Exhilaration and adrenalin are filling me with fire. We run full bore to the mud pit. JT of course beats me. I slide under the cargo net, into the MUD PIT. We have to go through about 60 feet of mud approximately 10 inches deep. This is the mud pit.

Funny thing, in the morning we went over an scoped out the MUD PIT. It looked gross. It had that foamy chocolate mike like look. It was cold at that time. I remember thinking, I don't know if I can crawl through that. At this moment, I don't even think. I just start swimming through the mud. Head first, I do a shallow dive under the ropes, swimming for the finish. I cruise quickly. I feel JT pull my back. I was smoking him through the mud pit. I hear someone yell out, "hey no pulling." I realize how far a head I am and I surge towards the end. JT grabs again and it actually gaining on me. I am covered in mud. I can barely see. I feel my body being pushed to the side. We have cleared all the ropes, you are required to go under to traversing the pit. We rise from the mud together, like Rambo. JT grabs me again and I realize we are not done. There is to be a victory dance. Wrestling to the finish line, we throw each other down into the mud again. The crowd roars at our wrestling maneuver. We get up again knowing the race is over. WE WON! Well, by finishing we won.

Our time will be easy to beat next year, but we did it. And I did my first Muddy Buddy event. We cross the finish together and headed for the hoses to rinse off our face and eyes so that we can see. Then off to another area where hundreds are showering the mud away. What a day! I am hungry. I am exhausted, I am exhilarated. It was Awesome!! I had no idea how great it would feel to be the Muddy Buddy! My first thoughts are for next year, we will be competitive next year!

I have to express a SPECIAL THANKS to CRISTY AND KELLY for their support, hospitality and most specially for capturing this awesome moment in a Kodak way. Cristy took all the pictures I have shared. It was difficult to express this journey, and without the pictures it would have been impossible.

The Cameron Family Donates to St Mary's Food Bank

Yes, we finally did the turkey thing. Don't get me wrong, we always donate money to charities especially around the holidays. Finally, we got the kids, younger ones, motivated and hit a couple of grocery stores to buy birds. We picked up 9 15 pounders and took them to the St. Mary's truck in front of Albertsons at the Desert Ridge location. It was fun. The kids enjoyed it. I hope to continue this tradition.

Valley Home Resales Jump nearly 20% from September to October

There are still a ton of homes on the market, but we are starting to see light after the mortgage melt down in August. Today we have 47,657 single family homes on the market. Last month 3,610 resale homes were sold, compared to 3,050 for September. Normally this time of year, sales are dropping. This is due to the holiday season and the fact summer is the busiest time for residential resales. It is great to see the numbers reversing to the positive.
I believe the increase in sales can be attributed to a few things. One, after the meltdown, there was a period where mortgages were in short supply and guidelines where changing. Two, interest rates have dropped pretty significantly over the past couple of months and since their highs in May. Three, and most importantly, sellers are beginning to price their homes appropriately.
I have talked to people about prices going lower, my belief is prices are lower. Now the seller needs to be priced correctly to sell. The homes selling are those priced correctly for what they are. I see homes sitting on the market that are 20 to 30% overpriced. They just don't get it.
Sellers needing a price greater than their worth, need to take their home off the market. If all the overpriced homes were taken off the market, we would see home values start to increase. This would occur because:

Inventory would decrease
Buyers sitting on the sidelines would re-enter the market
Active buyers would become more motivated as inventory decreased
Investors would re-enter the market(normally 20-25% of homes in the valley are purchased by investors)

Those activities would increase demand while decreasing inventory, thus bringing this market back in balance. ALL I WANT FOR CHRISTMAS IS THE OVERPRICED HOMES OFF THE MARKET!

5,000 New Arizona Jobs for October, New Record High

Last month the state of Arizona created an additional 5,000 jobs for a new record level. Today there are 2,737,500 jobs in the state of Arizona. The unemployment rate in Arizona increased from 3.3% to 3.5% and here in the metro Phoenix area it increased from 2.8% to 3%. Given the increase in jobs and increase in unemployment rate, this would indicate growth in the population of employable persons. Year over year the state has created 40,000 net new jobs. This is down from previous years where job growth was around 100,000 jobs. We need to look at one sector for most of this issue, that is construction. Over the past year, construction lost 19,000 jobs. Normally there was gains of approximately 15,000 jobs per year. Combined that accounts for 34,000 less jobs or 50% of the decline in job growth. The good news is the real estate market is picking up and hopefully we will see a decline in the construction job losses in the coming months. The really good news is that the rest of our economy continues to create jobs!

You can read the full jobs report for Arizona at the following link:
http://www.workforce.az.gov/?PAGEID=67&SUBID=151

San Francisco Chronicle

After mortgage meltdown, more homeowners trying to pay down debt

Homebuyers today are starting to sound a little bit more like their parents. As lenders have clamped down and price appreciation has waned, perceptions about homeownership have changed - and so have the kinds of loans that borrowers are seeking, mortgage brokers said.
New products, such as a loan called the CMG Home Ownership Accelerator that is designed to help borrowers pay down debt more quickly, are becoming popular, as the adjustable-rate mortgages that dominated the market for several years are falling out of favor, lenders and real estate agents say.
"There is a shifting perception about what owning a house means," said Catharine Bramkamp, an agent with Century 21 in Petaluma. "For the last five years, it was about buying a home and then turning around as quickly as possible and using it as a piggy bank. Now, people who are buying houses have more traditional goals, such as paying off their loans."
The CMG Home Ownership Accelerator, a mortgage modeled after an Australian program that has been around since the mid-1990s, has garnered interest from homeowners such as Tim Robison, a 39-year-old information technology manager. "My goal has always been to retire by the time I was 50," Robison said. "The only way to really do that is to have no debt.”The Danville resident, who bought a four-bedroom home with his wife two years ago, recently refinanced his mortgage to help him achieve that goal by taking out such a loan. After hearing an advertisement on the radio for the loan, offered by San Ramon's CMG Mortgage, Robison decided to refinance the $650,000 mortgage he had on the $895,000 home. Since taking out the loan in February, Robison says he has reduced his debt by almost $50,000. CMG markets the Home Ownership Accelerator, a term it has trademarked. When the housing market was strong and mortgage money was easy to come by, the loan was slow to catch on, but mortgage brokers and real estate agents say they expect that to change as stagnating home prices and the credit crunch have caused homeowners to reassess their priorities. The CMG loan is designed to help homeowners pay off their debt more quickly by tying together a homeowner's mortgage and checking account, according to Doug Nesbit, a vice president at CMG. It works like this: Each time borrowers receive a paycheck, instead of depositing it into their bank accounts, the money is put into a special account that is tied to the mortgage. As money is added to the account, the balance on the loan falls, allowing the borrower to save money on interest payments over the 30-year life of the loan. At the same time, any other expense paid out of the account increases the loan's balance. Still, Nesbit says that savings can add up to hundreds of thousands of dollars and borrowers can pay their loans off much faster. Robison says he hopes to own his home free and clear in just 10 years.
I am looking forward to discussing this loan with you in more detail. We have a 5-minute movie that explains the product in more detail, and we can run a simulation on your specific financial situation to determine how the product will work for you. Give me a call! A twenty-minute conversation could save you thousands in interest and get you free of mortgage debt twice as fast as you thought possible.
http://www.cmgfs.com/home_loans/cmghome/movie/player.html

Equipoint Financial
Mortgage Solutions
Brad Simpson
Office: 623.932.3554
BradSimpsonLoans@yahoo.com

New Listing In Surprise - Surprise Farms

New Listing In Phoenix - Estrella Village

Muddy Buddy Experience Part 2

The way the race starts is in waves. We were in the 4th wave, based on age and gender. In each wave there are riders and runners, riders go first then 2 minutes later the runners take off and then 4 minutes later the next wave begins. Our wave started and the bikers were off. I stood there at the ready line, my camelback was snug and tight so it would not bounce as I ran. I was feeling the excitement waiting for the green. Then it was time. I took off strong. Hey, I can do this, no problem! I had a pretty good pace and I looked around as I was with the leaders. They were in better shape than I. Right on, let's kick some ass. The trail went straight up a hill and then curved around and up another hill. All of the sudden I thought I was going to die; my breathing was out of control and I was dizzy. Guys were passing me. The hill was too much, I couldn't breath. I kept pushing and my pace dropped slower and slower. What is up? Are we that high, elevation wise? I can't breath. My heart was racing in the high 160's. I started to walk. What the hell am I doing, the race just started. I can do this. I caught my breath, brought my heart down and started again. A couple of hundred yards and I was dying again. I can't breath. I reached across my chest and unsnapped my camelback; my lungs increase their capacity and filled with air. What did I do? Next I reached down and unsnapped the tight strap across my belly. More Air!! I limited my ability to feed my lungs by putting the camelback on so tight. You see I hate anything on me bouncing while I run, so I had decided everything would need to be real tight - BIG MISTAKE! I was like a young boxer, going after the veteran. He showed weakness and I went for the kill, only to punch out. Like a boxer loosing the ability to raise his arms to punch, I needed a recover time and none was to be given. I continued on, I have to finish.

I started running again. But I could not regain my composure. We hit the peak and the downhill came. I couldn't help but run the downhill, but I had to be careful. Don't fall, that would be detrimental. Where is the obstacle event and when do I ride, was all I could think of. At the bottom of the hill we went around a fence that forced us slightly into the lake. Another hill?? I started up again, but it wasn't long before I was gasping for air and the dizziness returned. Then I saw it. The staging area, no jogging, RUN, get there! There was a metal frame we had to climb over, that was the obstacle event, then find my bike and I was off.

With a cool breeze in my face as I sped off. It felt great! I check my heart rate, it dropped to 160. I can rest now. NO, I can't this is my strength. I need to make up for my weak running, well my walking. I down shifted and started peddling as hard as I could. The down hill ends with another hill, no problem. This is what I do best. I can gag up a hill on a bike, unlike running. Then another down hill, "on your left" as I passed both runners and bikers, I felt great, pride began to fill me with strength and regain my competitiveness! Cool lets keep this up. What's that ahead the next staging area and event, not yet I just got on the bike! I rode like a mad man. My heart is racing and I am breathing at my max, I can't run again! There is Buddy, JT, waiting for me.

I enter the staging area, drop my bike and JT is yelling at me. In a positive way "Go Cameron, over that wall - come on, you can do it". It was one of those rock climbing walls not too high. Just an extra event, an obstacle to make the race more exciting. I took that wall with ease. Coming down the reality set in, I have to run again! So, off I go. But it wasn't long before I slowed. This was a long steady up hill climb. I was pooped. Just keep moving. Walk and get your breathing and heart rate down, then jog again. Take it easy, keep up the pace. This hill was brutal. Many bikers were pushing their bikes up this hill. I wish I had a bike, this is an easy ride for me. The mountain cures and swings around. I see the people on the higher ridge. What!?!? Still no check point. This is not fair. I am doing all the running. The self pity set in as I kept putting one foot in front of another. I am walking as fast as some are jogging, I feel better and I kept the pace.

A peak! Please give me a bike and still no check point. Dizziness! It is fazzing in and out now. I kept pushing to the top, then a short level area around and check point #3. Woo Hoo I made it!! I am not proud, but I made it. I am dizzy and the obstacle is to cross a balance beam. Another runner looks at me and says, "great now that we are all dizzy". Good, it's not just me freaking out here. I cross the beam and find my bike. Rejoice I am on a bike again.

Muddy Buddy Experience Part 1

I woke this morning to, well pain. It was a chore to lift my legs out of bed. I pushed to the shower and let the hot water wake my stiff muscles. Yesterday, I completed in my first Muddy Buddy Race. Today, I am in the beautiful vacation spot of Blythe, CA. For those unaware of Blythe, it is a border town of 10,000 on the CA and AZ border. We had a little car trouble on the return trip and found nothing open on a Sunday evening.
I was introduced to Muddy Buddy by my good buddy, JT. I have been mountain biking for the last 3 years and it is now a passion of mine. I love it! JT explained Muddy Buddy as a mountain bike and running event where one team member starts on the bike and the other team member running. At check points, the biker drops the bike does an obstacle event and becomes the new runner. As the runner approaches the check points, he does an obstacle event finds the bike left by his buddy and becomes the next rider. At the end of the race, both buddies crawl through 60' of 10" deep mud in the mud pit to the finish line. They must enter the mud pit together. That description of the event was good enough for me and I told him let's go, I am in!!

We had this great plan to train together and be in our best shape. The training lasted a week when work, family and life just put it on the back burner. I continued riding 3 days a week and running a 3 mile course along 105th St in McDowell Mountain Ranch. Until a knee injury sidelined me. In hind sight, the injury wasn't much; it was more fear of hurting my knee at 42 and exhaustion that sidelined the running. I started riding again about 3 weeks before the event and my mountain biking game was on. The goal - ride hard and make up for my weak running.

In the meantime, my dieting had paid off. I lost 20 pounds over the past 10 weeks prior to the event. That is a whole other story that can be found through by blog. Anyway, my weigh in for the weight loss was the day before Muddy Buddy and I had a lovely dinner of broth the night before my weigh in. Where am I headed, well, I was a little weak going into this event. No running and no nutrition added to my weakness. Both JT and I have been very busy. So, we decided to make a quick road trip to Cali, spend the night at his sister's, do the event and drive home. Cool, let's go!!

And so we did, we crossed the desert and went to Claremont. JT's sister and brother in law Cristy and Kelly took great care of us. In the morning we were off to Bonelli Regional Park in San Dimes. It was a rush showing up. There were 100's of people coming to compete. Costumes are big w/Muddy Buddy and many were dressed to the tune. Drag seemed to be big and we saw 3 sets of wonder women. Some guys some gals. There were 80's aerobic outfits, cows with utters, and many other funky outfits. I was wondering how you run, ride and crawl through mud in a costume, but it looked fun! Start the race!

Watch for the next posting of "Muddy Buddy Experience part 2"

Homes Sales Jump 10% last Week

Many of you know, I track the market on a weekly basis. Sometimes it is overwhelming, like seeing a wave come in, I know when something is up. Last March I heard a bit about sub prime issues and didn't think too much about it. However, when I registered a slide in sales for the single family homes in the metro Phoenix area during March I knew something was going on. After registering 1,264 sales for the last full week of February, March slid. 1,196, 990 and then 867; I thought what the heck is happening. It was wave one of the sub prime fall out.
Later this year we were averaging about 1,000 sales per week when wave two of the sub prime hit. Sales plunged to a mere 516 in mid September, but have slowly stabilized at 600 sales per week. Finally a jump. Last week we sold 673 homes for the week. Again this is only single family homes registered as sold in ARMLS (Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service). That is not near the 1,100 that would be normal for this time of year, but it is 9.8% jump of last week. This is a great number considering we are moving into the holiday season when sales typically slow, not increase. Buyers great deals are out there, just look and take em!

Muddy Buddy Sponsors

Thank you so much to those of you who pledged in the beginning. Knowing that Ben Comen and Living Without Limits were counting on me, made me push myself past my limits to achieve my goals and lose the weight. My goal was 20lbs, and I did it!! With your help, we raised $6,910.00 for the Living Without Limits Foundation. For those of you who donated (you should be on this list), we will be contacting you with detailed information on where you can send the check, and any other information. Again thank you for supporting me with losing the weight, as well as supporting a wonderful cause and donating to them. Think of how much help we can offer them with our donation. Every little bit counts, and we appreciate all of the sponsors.

We will keep you updated and will contact you with the info. If you need anything from us, please feel free to contact us.

Thanks again, and make it a great day!

Final Weigh In for Jeff Cameron's Weigh Loss Fund Raiser

The 4th quarter come back and Jeff hits his GOAL! I didn't think it would happen. After starting off so well, I moved into a weight loss funk for a couple of weeks. I got busy at work, football started, I had a knee injury and Halloween; all contributed to making this goal very difficult to achieve. However, achievable!
I have to put a big THANK YOU out to Ben Comen, Tom Ferry, my wife Lisa and ALL of you that sponsored me. Ben Comen gave me the "don't give up" attitude and the pressure of letting him and his foundation down. I have to give a HUGE THANK YOU to Tom Ferry, my professional business coach. He introduced me to Ben and gave me the "what are you waiting for" attitude. Funny thing, Tom is by business coach, but he has taught me a balanced life is the foundation to success. Tom was the biggest part of making this weight loss difficult. After following his advice and coaching, I got real busy at work. It does matter the market, a good Realtor can sell homes! October was my best month of the year after February. February was before the first "shoe" dropped in the sub prime fiasco in March. Lisa's support was AWESOME, she planned meals around my diet and was there to hold me accountable when I ventured off. ALL OF YOU I am indebted to. The accountability and pressure you created by sponsoring YOUR hard earned money was AWESOME! Last night I was thinking, "for every pound I miss by, Ben losses $355," that stuck in my head and helped me persevere.
OK, I lost 20 pounds. Now I have to keep it off and go for more. Unfortunately, this proved there is more to go! I am off to California for the "MUDDY BUDDY" race with my training partner JT(PS thanks to JT too). I will update you on that adventure.

With 20 pounds lost and $355 sponsored we have raised $7,100 for Ben Comen's foundation, "Living Without Limits"

THANK YOU ALL AGAIN!

October Jobs Report: Increase of 166,000 Jobs and 4.7% unemployment rate

Blow out numbers. This economy is so resilient. The huge real estate correction is being offset by the rest of the market. Buyers, it's time to step up to the plate and start buying homes! The economy created 166,000 jobs in October and there were revisions to August and September which the net effect was to lower there results by 10,000 jobs. Net net we are talking 355,000 new jobs over the last 3 months. This in a time where there is wide spread layoffs in construction, banking and Realtors. What would this economy be like had the investors not driven housing up so crazily?
The talking heads are putting a lot of caution on this number right now. Only time will tell. Right now this is good news. I look forward to the Arizona jobs report that will be released later this month.
You can read the full article from CNBC below:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/21594317

Final 2 Days for Jeff's Weigh In

Down to the wire and yesterday was the first Halloween since I got teeth that I did not eat any candy! Can you believe that. Well I hit the 230 mark today and I guess it is time to say good bye to solid food. Fast time baby! Got to hit 225 by Saturday morning. For those of you that don't know what I am writing about, I committed to loose 20 pounds by November 3rd. I started at 245, YES, 245. I was actually pushing 250 the week before I began my quest. So, to pressure myself I enlisted those I know to sponsor me. I now have 60 people sponsoring me for a commutative of $355 per pound I loose. The money I raise will go to Ben Comen's foundation, "Living without Limits." Ben was born with Cerebral Palsy. He joined his High School track team and competed in long distance running. His final year of of High School his team won State! Ben however, never won a race, yet finished every race he entered. Not only did he finish, be he did it bloodied and beaten down. See his condition makes it very difficult to run and he falls quite often. His reaction is slow and so he plunges head first at times. It is not too late to sponsor me. My goal was $400 per pound and I am short. Please, anyone can sponsor. Just shoot me an email or post on this blog. Ben is the reason I will loose 20 pounds. I feel better than I have in years and I want to be able to fulfill my commitment.

RETIRE YOUR MORTGAGE BEFORE YOU RETIRE A SURE THING IN CREATING EQUITY!

An increasing number of baby-boomers seem resigned to the fact, unlike their parents; they will be making mortgage payment well into retirement. If you look at statistics, you can see where this anxiety comes from. The average age of a person with a 30-year mortgage in California is 45 years old. Unless these people sell their home or pay off their loan early, their last mortgage payment won’t be made until they are 75 years old! And to pay off that loan early isn’t easy, because the borrower has to make significant changes to the family budget to squeeze in the extra principal payments.
Thankfully, there is now a better way to retire mortgage-free.
Use CMG’s revolutionary Home Owner Accelerator loan to accelerate paying off your home loan without changing your family budget. You simply deposit your monthly paychecks directly into this innovative line-of-credit; reduce your loan balance until you pay your bills. While you aren’t using the deposited money it keeps your principal balance lower, which can save you thousands of dollars of interest over time. The money you save remains in your account, further reducing your balance. So, just by changing where your deposit your income, you can pay off your loan years earlier with no change to the family budget. A recent article in the New York Times noted the arrival of the Accelerator as a viable financing alternative.

“For borrowers who cannot face the prospect of paying more interest than principal over the course of the loan, mortgage lenders have begun to offer alternatives more aggressively.”

If you want to further accelerate the pay-down of your loan balance without changing your family spending habits, consider parking your “rainy day” money in the account. Your rainy day fund is probably sitting in a low-interest bearing savings account or CD. Switch that money into the Home Owner Accelerator account, and the money will immediately reduce your loan balance, saving you even more interest. And you haven’t lost access to your rainy day fund: You can tap into it instantly by writing a check or using your debit card. Until that rainy day comes, however, your cash is working aggressively to help you pay down your loan faster. Which means, even if you’re a baby-boomer, you can actually retire mortgage-free! While this sounds too good to be true, this loan is for real! If this sounds intriguing enough to discuss in greater detail, watch a short videohttp://www.homeownershipaccelerator.com/consumers/promo2007-video.shtml and give me a call.

Equipoint Financial
Mortgage Solutions
Brad Simpson
Office: 623.932.3554
BradSimpsonLoans@yahoo.com

McDowell Mountain Ranch Sales in October

I noticed some interesting trends in the month of October for McDowell Mountain Ranch home sales. First of all, entering the month there were 160 homes for sale and another 27 homes were listed for sale during the month. Through October 11 homes registered as Pending, but the inventory dropped to 152 by the first of November 1st. Therefore, 24 homes sellers gave up and took their home off the market.
What interested me was that as I looked through the activity of the homes that went Pending, I found a trend. 55% of those homes that went Pending also lowered their price in October. Looking deeper, of the 11 sales, I found the following:

2 homes were new to the market, average of 19 Days on Market
2 homes were recently back on the market, average of 14 DOM
6 homes dropped their price in October
1 home dropped its price 3 days prior to October

I have been reporting that I have seen a trend of about 85% ("about" because I have not scientifically tracked it) of the Pending homes I find in any comps I do for a home are new to the market or lowered their price withing 35 days of Pending date. Here is a study of the Pending activity in McDowell Mountain Ranch and I found 100% of the homes Pended in October were either new to the market, back on the market or lowered their price in the past 35 days. I did not seek out this validation this morning, I planned on checking it and reporting what I found. It was a surprise to see the activity back my theory.
What does this mean? Buyers are out there. They are watching for the home they want at the right price. Today's market price. If a home is a new listing and priced right, it sells in 35 days or less. If a home is not sold in that time, a price reduction is required. Once the right price is placed on the property, buyers come view the home. If that is market price, the home should sell within 35 days of the price reduction.

INVENTORY LEVELS DROP BY 500 HOMES OVERNIGHT

The inventory of Single Family Homes dropped exactly 500 homes from October 31st to November 1st throughout the metro Phoenix area. We expect this type of activity as sellers take their home off the market through the slow holiday months. This drop left the level of SFH’s in the valley at 47,143, a number higher than the 46,812 on October 1st. On October 1st we recorded a drop of over 700 homes from the day before. Many Realtors write their listing contracts to expire at the end of the month, thus the large drop offs going into the 1st day of the month this time of the year. Last year we experienced a drop of inventory levels by 20% from October to the first of the year. This year that trend is following, but at a slower pace.

Federal Reserve Lowers Again, another 25 basis pts

Shock me. With 3.9% GDP the Federal Reserve lowered rates another 25 basis points today. This can only point to a desire to try and hold off housing issues from taking the economy down. You can read the full article at :
http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/federal-reserve-text-on-interest-rates/20071031154109990001

Like Father, Like Son

Look at my boy walking in my foot steps. ARIZONA CARDINALS FAN! Yes! Hopefully his experience as a fan will be better than the last 18 years I have experienced. But that is just it, why you are a fan. It doesn't matter if you win or lose, you are a fan. B.S. I want them to win, I am sick of losing. However, even with losses, I am still a fan.

Vacant Homes across the Valley

After reading the Arizona Republic's article on vacant homes across the valley, I decided to do a little research and came up with some interesting numbers.

All properties Year To Date
Active 57,700
Pending 4,400
Sold 47,300


Vacant properties Year To Date
Active 23,500 40.7%
Pending 2,100 47.8%
Sold 21,700 45.9%

Many of you may be looking at these numbers and wondering why they are higher than what I ususally report. This is a list of all homes: single family, condo, townhome, mobile etc. When I do my monthly reporting I only use Single Family Homes, SFH. That is how I started my study 3 years ago and thus continue to report that way.

When we look at these numbers an interesting figure jumps out at me. Although, 40.7% of the homes listed are vacant; 47.8% of the Pending homes are vacant and 45.9% of the sold homes are vacant. Buyers are choosing vacant homes at a great rate the occupied homes. The stress on the owner of the vacant homes makes that seller more agressive on their price. Price sells in this market. All the experts agree! But, shush! This is a secret.

Economy headed UP or DOWN? 3rd Quarter GDP comes in at 3.9%

WOW! So much for a recession. The economy is on fire. ADP reported an expectation of 106,000 new jobs for last month and preliminary 3rd Quarter GDP comes in raging at 3.9%. Both are great numbers. How can this be with this housing "crisis?" Real Estate investment is down in the 3rd quarter by 20%, but the consumer was strong and exports are soaring! The weak dollar is putting oil at records highs, but also helping make American products cheap across the world. Exports are up 16% for the 3rd quarter. Incredible! By becoming a more Global Economy we are less exposed to local issues, because the rest of the world keeps growing. It will be very interesting to see what the FED does today. I don't see how they can lower rates, but I am not an economist. With the economy sizzling and job growth, it's time to pull out of this real estate correction. I don't think that can happen until Spring. But we are seeing great buys out there for the real estate investor. BUY LOW, SELL HIGH! Isn't that what makes people rich. Now is the time to buy real estate low. That is if you get it at the right price. There are many sellers still priced for yesterdays value. Their value is not falling, it has fallen and they are over priced.

SCOTTSDALE LONG TERM WATER SOURCES

Many people ask me questions about our water here in the valley. I received the following email from the Mayor of Scottsdale, Mary Manross. It gives a few basic answers to the question of where we get our water and what is our long term issues with water. Remember, as this article states, we are in balance today. Yet, our area is in a long term drought and we have had only about 50% of the average rain this year. So, in a year of drought and dismal rain, we still are in balance.

I hope this helps answer questions:

Scottsdale achieves a major milestone to ensure long-term sustainability of water resources

Water is the lifeblood of a community and always a top concern of mine. I would like to share Scottsdale's recent achievement which demonstrates our steadfast commitment to long-term sustainability of our water resources.

A major milestone has been achieved by Scottsdale. This past year we recharged as much water into the groundwater aquifers as was pumped out from wells. This balance is called "safe yield" and it ensures the long-term sustainability of the city's groundwater resources. Several factors contributed to this achievement, including strategic planning and the construction of the Water Campus. Scottsdale recently received the prestigious Crescordia Award for our Aquifer Sustainability Program during Valley Forward's annual Environmental Awards banquet.

"In 1980 Arizona passed the Groundwater Management Act that set the achievement of "safe yield," a balance between groundwater withdrawal and artificial/natural recharge, as a goal for Phoenix-area water providers. To achieve "safe yield" Scottsdale had to overcome several challenges - primarily its historic 100 percent dependency on groundwater to supply its drinking water, and secondly, the city's wells are located on the upper-end of the aquifer, making the community more vulnerable to water-level decline.

Scottsdale implemented an innovative set of water resource management strategies, which culminated in the city's Aquifer Sustainability Program. Its surface water acquisition program was funded by the first impact fees in the state, developed by Scottsdale, dedicated exclusively toward water supply acquisition. The city now receives approximately 75 percent of its drinking water from two surface water supplies, the Colorado River through the Central Arizona Project, and the Salt and Verde rivers through SRP.

The city then maximized its reclaimed water supply through its Scottsdale Water Campus, which delivers reclaimed water directly to 23.5 golf courses in north Scottsdale for turf irrigation. To better manage groundwater conditions, the city initiated a complex groundwater modeling effort, and helped to establish a strong water conservation ethic as one of the founding partners of the Valleywide "Water - Use It Wisely" campaign." Scottsdale achieved "safe yield" in 2006, a milestone that will help sustain groundwater resources."

Even though safe yield has been achieved, residents are still asked to conserve water and to take advantage of the tips and tools available to them from the city's Water Conservation Office. To learn more about how you can conserve water, please call the office at 480 312-5650.

Scottsdale is a leader in the Valley and the nation in conservation and in using artificial groundwater recharge to enhance the sustainability of the city's water supply. This is an important part of Scottsdale's overall water supply management strategy. Maintaining the city's safe yield balance is the city's next goal. Congratulations to Dave Mansfield and the entire Water Resources team.

Buyer's Difficulty in Today's Market

I have written several offers for homes the last couple of weeks and the sellers have been countering very strong. The offers have been fair based on the recent sales. Expecting full price on a home 6 months on the market? What are they thinking? It is difficult on buyers. They already face the pressure of so many homes to choose from, market timing (not wanting to buy now and have it be worth less in the future) and all the mortgage issues. So, we write a fair offer on a home and we get a counter that is $5,000 from full price. Come on do you want to sell or what? I have several sellers that would love the offers we are writing. I don't know what they are thinking, but it hurts the overall market. I would have 3 other sales, no the market would have 3 more sales. Plus the other sales from other buyers like mine. They don't want to over pay. The more sales that occur, the quicker the market will improve. So sellers, be realistic on your price and realistic on your counters. Let's get some homes sold!

Meghan is in the ASU Womens Choir

Lisa and I were entertained last night by the ASU Women's Choir. It was a pleasure and especially so because our daughter Meghan is a member of the Choir. What a show it was. I was the happy proud dad. As Lisa said, "this is so much better than High School." And it was. The performance was funny, entertaining and performed AWESOMELY! The reward of parenting is to see your child grow and use the God given talents positively. Thank you Meghan! You performed wonderfully!

The Last Week before Weigh in and Muddy Buddy Race

Here I go. I have one week to go. I still need to loose 8 pounds to hit my goal of 20 lost. What a procrastinator! I know I can still make it in this last week. I am off for a huge Mountain Biking Ride tomorrow. We are headed from McDowell Mountain Ranch up the Taliesin Trail to Lost Dog and then over to the SUNRISE Trail. That trail, Sunrise, alone is a killer ride. So, at some point tomorrow I should be down another 5 pounds. The trick is keeping it off.

Thank you to all the sponsors. If you have not signed up yet, please do. I am raising money for "Living Without Limits," Ben Comen's foundation. It is a great charity and you can read about it in my blog. My goal is $400 in sponsors per pound I loose. I now have 60 people committed to a total of $354.50 per pound I loose. My weigh in is next Saturday, November the 3rd. So, if you have not signed up, call or email me today.

Thank you for your support!

Jeff Cameron

We Remember...

Shari Joan Bochantin, 40, died at 7:00 am on October 18, 2007 after a
courageous battle with ovarian cancer. She was surrounded by love and
family at Sherman Hospice House. Shari is survived by her loving husband,
David, 2 fantastic daughters-Rachel, 14 and Rebecca, 12; her parents Paula
and Sam Klein of Scottsdale; sister Ellen of Scottsdale; brother Jeffrey
of Phoenix; and aunts uncles, in-laws, nieces, nephews and numerous friends.
She was an active participant in community life-Girl Scouts, Desert Canyon
Elementary School, the National Ovarian Cancer Coalition (NOCC) and other
organizations. She will be missed by all.

Contributions are suggested to the NOCC, Valley of the Sun Chapter, c/o Michele Avery, 124 W. Villa Theresa Dr., Phoenix, AZ 85023.

WARNING SYMPTOMS OF OVARIAN CANCER

Contact your MD if you develop one or more of these symptoms and they persist for 2-3 weeks:

-Abdominal Swelling/Bloating/Clothes Too Tight
-Abdominal/Pelvic Pain or Pressure or Feeling "Full"
-Gastrointestinal Symptoms (such as gas, indigestion, nausea, or changes in bowel movements)
-Vaginal Bleeding or Discharge
-Urinary Problems - Urgency, Burning, or Spasms
-Fatigue and/or Fever
-Pain During Intercourse
-Back Pain
-Difficulty Breathing

Remember, the vast majority of the time, these will not be due to cancer, but you owe it to yourself to get them checked out.

What's in your cosmetic bag?

My friend, Melinda Bailey, tried to email this website to me and for some reason it didn't work, but now that I have found it, I'm really grateful she turned me on to it. I was just on CosmeticsDatabase.com, checking out all the products that I use on my family and on myself, and was shocked at some of the ingredients in them. I always make sure to buy products that don't test on animals, but I didn't realize the amount of harmful ingredients some things have. Please check to see that most of the products you use are in the safe range, and that they don't have any irritants or allergans, or worse.

New Listing In Arcadia

FINAL 2 WEEKS FOR JEFF'S FUND RAISER/WEIGHT LOSS

Down to the wire and luckily I am recovering. Recovering? For those who don't know, I had a big scare with my knee last week. It swelled up and I was in pain. For me it was rather scary. I have a hard enough time loosing weight when I am doing 4 to 5 hours of cardio per week. Take that away and all I have is dieting. Yuck. Last Wednesday I went on a run with Lisa down 105th St in McDowell Mountain Ranch and Thursday I woke with a pain in the knee. I rested it over the weekend and when it was not much better I went to the doctor. He told me I was a baby and to ice it down. No, he told me there was no real damage and to ice it down. I iced and iced, probably too much. But the swelling went down. I went for a 5 mile mountain biking ride today and feel great.
I only have two weeks until my weigh in for the "Living without Limits" to raise money for Ben Comen's foundation and I am back on track. I gained 5 pounds sitting on the couch last weekend. But that is gone. My weigh in this morning was 235 and my goal is 225, a loss of 20 pounds. It is time to get serious. I am glad exercise is back in the program. Ben I won't let you down! We have $353 per pound pledged, so I can raise over $7,000 when I hit my goal. If any of you want to be a sponsor please send me an email with the amount per pound. Some are just pledging a dollar amount. Send me email support!!!!

Real Estate Correction?? 28,500 Jobs Created in AZ for September

Can you even imagine how RED HOT our economy in Arizona would be if their was not this correction in the real estate market right now. We created 28,500 jobs in September! A great part of that is seasonal employment. But what is more important is the unemployment rate is at 2.8% in the metro Phoenix area vs 3.2% last month and 3.4% last year. Come on people move here! We have JOBS, we have HOUSES and they are much CHEAPER today than LAST YEAR!Construction, of course, gave up 2,000 jobs. Then most every other sector added jobs. The largest was in government for all the teachers going back to work. You can read the full report at:

http://www.workforce.az.gov/admin/uploadedPublications/2601_PrOct2007.pdf

Pulte Homes Silver Sky at White Tank Lowers Base Price $100,000

Builders are finally responding to the market and changing their pricing. Pulte homes just lowered the base price of all their homes $100,000 for Silver Sky at Whet Tank Foothills Discovery Series. Previously they were offerring incentives upto $80,000 and now they have decided to just lower the base price. Out in the Surprise area just about all the big gains of 2004 and 2005 have been given back as the market has swung from a seller's market to a buyer's market. For the resale seller, new builds are a problem. Buyers in general will pay 10 to 20% more for the base price of a new build than for a resale home. It is crazy, but I have seen it happen for years. There is a certain excitement about being the first owner and choosing all the colors and upgrades.

New Listing In Arcadia

Inventory Level of Single Family Homes in Metro Phoenix DROPS by 700

Yes, that is right! The inventory of single family homes for sale here in the valley dropped by over 700 homes from September 30th to October 1st. I track the market here on a weekly basis and that is the largest drop I have registered this year. I started a weekly tracking of the Active, Pending and Sold homes back in 2005. It is a great tool in measuring what is happening in our market.
Our inventory level of Single Family Homes (SFH) listed in the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service was at 47,476 homes on Sunday September 30th and on Monday October 1st that number dropped to 46,752. This represents a drop of over 700 homes. This is due to many home Listings expiring at the end of September. But that happens at the end of every month. This is just the largest drop I have recorded so far this year.
You will hear other numbers much higher than the 46,752 SFH that I report. Most news agencies like to make it sound as high as possible. They include all the condo, town homes and mobile homes in their number. The funny thing is they put them all together when reporting the inventory level, but most of the time, they only report the sales for SFH.
My number is actually an over statement of what is for sale here in the valley. The exaggeration is caused because of the following reasons:

1. Realtors list the same home twice.
2. Vacation homes in Flagstaff and other areas get listed in our MLS. Some 6,649 of the listings are not in Maricopa County.
3. Builder SPEC homes get listed. Even though we have a separate system for builder SPEC homes, they list their homes in the MLS too.

These listings overstate the amount of homes for sale here in the valley by nearly 10,000 SFH. If I were in charge non of them would be in our MLS system.

Jeff Cameron

Arizona Cardinals 34 St Louis Rams 31

Well it was not a pretty game. We lost Matt Leinart with a broken collar bone and he may be out the rest of the season. BUT, we won and for now are leading the NFC West. I am bummed about the loss of Matt, but am feeling great with a winning record at 3 Wins and 2 Losses. Next week is the Carolina Pathers. They are not playing as expected prior to the season opening. It would be great to continue unbeaten this year in Glendale on the home turf. PROTECT THE NEST. As they say at Cardinal games.
I thought it was funny the way the annoucers were bagging on Rod Hood. I think the quote was, "he can't cover anyone." Then he comes up with not one but two interceptions to seal the fate of this game. Congratulations to Rod Hood! Let's now pick up the coverage!
I didn't write about last weeks game. I have to tell you, the home crowd is loud! We had a blast at the game. Well, when you win it is always fun. Even the ugly win over the Rams was fun.
Let's see what Kurt Warner can do as a starter.
Last week was crazy with all the Steeler fans. The chanting and high fiving before the game. The Cardinal fans were quietly going their way to watch. We have been burned for so many years, the swagger is not there yet. I hope to get a few more wins and see the swagger begin to shape!

Newspaper is going bye bye!

Entrepreneur Magazine ranked the top 10 businesses facing Extinction over the next 10 years.
The wrote:
"Newspapers: The numbers have been falling precipitously since the 1990s when the Internet came on the scene. In the past year, the Audit Bureau of Circulations twice has posted drops averaging 2.1 and 2.8 percent over six-month periods. Newsrooms across the country have been hemorrhaging staff. Odds of Survival in 10 Years: They won't disappear; they'll be on the Internet."

The Newspaper is giving way to the Internet. That is why we no longer advertise in print advertising. All studies show, although people read the paper, most buyers do not look in the paper for a home. It is too easy to get all the information on-line. What studies do show is that sellers look at the newspaper to see what homes in their neighborhood are selling for. They are then impressed by the Realtors advertisements and hire those Realtors to list their home. Not fully understanding that they only reason the Realtor runs an add in the paper is to get more listings. Don't get me wrong, they pray the ad will bring a buyer. But they know from studies and experience newspaper ads do not bring buyers. What do they care, they get listings! The ad works as designed.
Just think of all the trees we could save. Recently, we got our new set of Yellow Pages. I immediately put them in the recycling bin. Who uses the Yellow Pages anymore? I mean the paper one, of course the on-line version is used. Why do they continue to print the Yellow Pages?

Weight Loss Update - Muddy Buddy

10/3/2007 - Weigh In

OK folks, we are down to the last 4 weeks and I have been stuck around this 235 weight. It is time for me to get serious. Yesterday I was in Las Vegas meeting with 100's of the top agents from around the country. I got several of them to sponsor me, adding another $59.25 per pound. Now we are at a total of $353.50 per pound. So, when I loose a total of 20 pounds we will raise $7,070 for "Living without Limits", Ben Comen's foundation. It is time to get serious. As Tom Ferry once said, "if there is something you want to do, why wait, just do it now. Go home and start today." So, I am saying today is the day. I am moving on to the next the level. It is time to hit it and hit it hard! You go baby! Oh, wait. I am writing to myself. Is this a sign of a problem?

Strong Jobs Report and Upward Revision to August

I don't know about you, but I still have the foggiest crystal ball that I have ever had. With all this "mortgage meltdown" and "housing slump", we are still creating JOBS. The Labor Department just released their report showing employers boosted payrolls by 110,000 and adjusted August from a loss of 4,000 to a gain of 89,000. In reality, they are saying 203,000 more jobs have been added. So much for a recession.
This is good and OK news. It is good because the more people working and the higher the wages makes home ownership more affordable. Also, the better our economy is doing the quicker we will rebound from this real estate market. The OK part is that the better the economy is doing, the less likely rates will go down. Another way of increasing affordability. Right now I would love to see lower rates and less mortgage issues. That would be the quick fix. But in the long run, a better economy and more jobs is more sustainable.
I look forward to our Arizona Job report due out September 20Th.

http://money.aol.com/marketnews/bonds/article


By the way, HOW ABOUT THOSE ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS!