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ARIZONA LOOSES 6,700 JOBS IN MAY, 4.4% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

We continue to shed jobs here in the valley of the sun. Job losses are spreading from the construction industry to the rest of the economy. However some areas show strength. The housing industry is primed for recovery as we slowly go through the excess inventory. Home construction should hit a bottom this year and begin to move up next year. The question is how bad does the recession get before housing turns fully?


Arizona Department of Commerce, Research Administration
Nonfarm Employment Down by 6,700
in May; Unemployment Rate at 4.4%
Arizona’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent in May, a one-half of one percentage point increase from 3.9 percent in April. The national rate increased from 5 percent to 5.5 percent during the same time period. The civilian labor force in the state increased and employment fell, according to local area unemployment statistics. Arizona’s economy lost 6,700 nonfarm jobs in May for an over-themonth percentage change of -0.3 percent. Based on the 10-year average, a small gain was expected during May (+0.1%). http://www.workforce.az.gov/admin/uploadedPublications/2711_PrJune08.pdf

ARIZONA'S SEASONLLY ADJUSTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REMAINED AT 4%

Arizona gained 9,500 non-farm Jobs in March, for the month over month gain. However, when we look at the year over year gain, it was negative. There is a 7,500 job loss when comparing March 2007 to March 2008.
Construction pared 800 jobs in March and is now down 24,800 from its peak.
The unemployment rate remained at 4%. In March of 2007, the unemployment rate was 3.7%. Our unemployment rate is still much lower than the country as a whole. The US unemployment rate is 5.1%.
read the rest of the jobs report: http://www.workforce.az.gov/admin/uploadedPublications/2692_PrApr08.pdf

MARCH JOB LOSSES TOTAL 80,000

The nation's jobs report is out and it is a negative number. But let's face it. We know we are in a recession. Therefore, losses of 80,000 jobs is not huge. Plus they restated the numbers for the first 2 months of this year and there were 33,000 less jobs lost earlier this year. Therefore, the net loss is 47,000 jobs. Don't get me wrong, if those jobs are your job, this is serious. But overall, the number was less than expected. Maybe this recession will be milder than expected. Only time will tell.

Economy Loses 80,000 Jobs, Worse Than Expected

By Reuters 04 Apr 2008 08:32 AM ET

US employers cut payrolls for a third month in a row in March, slashing 80,000 jobs for the biggest monthly job decline in five years as the economy headed into a downturn, government data on Friday showed.
CNBC.com
The Labor Department revised the first two months of the year's job losses to a total of 52,000 from a previous estimate of 85,000. The March unemployment rate jumped to 5.1 percent from 4.8 percent, the highest since a matching rate in September 2005.
The March job report was more bleak than expected.
Economists polled ahead of the report forecast a decline of 60,000 in non-farm payrolls and a rise in the unemployment rate to 5 percent.
Read the rest of the story: http://www.cnbc.com/id/23952640

ARIZONA GAINS 25,300 JOBS IN FEBRUARY

Sounds great to gain 25,300 jobs last month, but that is a seasonal number. The big number is the year over year number which is up only 0.1%. We are only up 3,900 jobs from February of 2007. The unemployment rate is at 4%, up from 3.8% last year, but down from 4.3% last month.

Arizona’s economy gained a less than seasonally expected 25,300 non farm jobs in February to reach a level of 2,672,400 jobs. Over-the-year, non farm payroll employment increased by 3,900 in February, with seven of 11 major industries reporting employment gains. Over-the year job growth in February was 0.1 percent, compared to the 10-year average of 3.2 percent. All industries except one were below their 10-year monthly average gains. Two industries lost jobs, while the same number showed no change. Jobs declined in goods-producing industries (-1,900) and increased in service-providing industries (+27,200). Arizona’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4 percent in February, down from 4.3 percent in January, as people dropped out of the labor force and the total civilian labor force declined by 11,700. At the
national level the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.8 percent.
Read the entire article here: http://www.workforce.az.gov/admin/uploadedPublications/2685_PrMar08.pdf

SUPER BOWL BRINGS BUSINESS CONNECTIONS TO THE VALUE

I read this article today in the republic. It is a perfect example of how building the Arizona Cardinals a football stadium, not only brought us the Super Bowl, but brings oportunity for more jobs and business. Today the world will be watching the valley and many will be lured to bring their businesses here and / or do business here from the exposure. Thus creating more jobs and usually bringing better paying jobs that help disversify our economy. It was a great step in creating the future of Arizona!

Of course, the gentlemen from Dubai will be at the Super Bowl today.

Dubai partnership sought
Phoenix wants to start business connections
Casey NewtonThe Arizona RepublicFeb. 3, 2008 12:00 AM
Phoenix is taking some key first steps to establishing a long-term partnership with the Middle Eastern port of Dubai, hoping ties to the wealthy emirate will result in more jobs for the Valley.The Greater Phoenix Economic Council is hosting a delegation of government and business leaders from Dubai this weekend. The delegation includes Mohammed Bin Ali Alabbar, chairman of real-estate giant Emaar Properties, and Richard Rodriguez, who oversees Emaar's developments in the United Arab Emirates.
Read the entire article at: http://www.azcentral.com/community/phoenix/articles/0203dubai0203.html

JOBS JOBS JOBS, WE CREATED JOBS IN DECEMBER

That's right, that's right. OK, can YOU feel the lift I got to see we created over 10,000 jobs in Arizona in December. Let's put this in perspective, there were only 18,000 jobs created across the whole USA in December. More than half were here in AZ. Yes! Yes! Yes! This is good news.

Arizona’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.7 percent in December, up from 4.1 percent in November. Nationally, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 5 percent from 4.7 percent. Arizona’s economy experienced continued but slowing job growth by adding 10,100 nonfarm jobs in December to reach a record total of 2,760,600. The service-providing
industries added 12,300 jobs while the goods-producing cluster lost 2,200 jobs.

Read the whole jobs report at the following link:

http://www.workforce.az.gov/admin/uploadedPublications/2647_PrJan08.pdf

December Jobs Report + 18,000 Jobs

The housing issues and liquidity crisis are starting to make their way into the rest of the market. A mere 18,000 jobs were created in December and unemployment jumped from 4.7% to 5%. I read before that it takes about 180,000 new jobs per month to keep up with the new job seekers, basically to keep unemployment steady. It seems high to me, but that is what the talking heads on CNBC reported. I hope the job frontier in Arizona bodes better. One thing the jobs report does not show is all the now unemployed Realtors and Loan officers that don't receive a regular pay check because they are on commission.

Here is the article about the jobs report.

Unemployment Up, Stoking Recession Fears
By JEANNINE AVERSA,
AP
Posted: 2008-01-04 17:15:45
WASHINGTON (AP) - Wary employers clamped down on hiring and pushed the unemployment rate to a two-year high of 5 percent in December, an ominous sign that the economy may slide into recession. President Bush explored a rescue package, including a tax cut, with his economic advisers.

http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/unemployment-up-stoking-recession-fears/n20080104171509990023

RE/MAX 2000 CLOSES 13 OFFICES IN METRO PHOENIX

It's happening...the bursting real estate bubble is starting to shows signs of its terrific strength. This weekend RE/MAX 2000 shut its doors. If you have a home under contract through them, no worries, the closing will not affect your closing. Some 350 agents have to switch brokers, or, well some were probably not really in business any more. Also, 20 salaried positions were lost. This is why I was so happy to see a positive jobs report for November. I know real estate, title and mortgage companies are dropping like flies. We still created jobs, even though this industry is falling apart. Well the GOOD NEWS is the strong will survive. That is why my team is still hear, still at the office every day and STILL SELLING HOMES! We have 4 sales for December, are in contract negotiations and I was going to write an offer yesterday, but another buyer beat us to the home. Just goes to say, even in a buyer's market when you find the right home don't hesitate.
What's next? I think many more companies will close and people will loose their jobs. I heard a report last week that in California, they are expecting 40% of the real estate agents that were in the business January of 2007, to be out of business by January of 2008. We in Arizona, tend to follow the California trends.
If I were looking for a real estate agent right now, I would make sure I hired a full time, successful and experienced agent. These newbies and the churn of real estate agents is part of why we have a bubble. I can't say I am happy we are in a buyer's market, but I am pleased with some of the results. Hopefully, this will make some permanent changes to the Realtors and Loan officers. One for each would be that new real estate agents go through a period of a 2 years in apprenticeship and for lenders they need to be licensed.

Arizona November JOBS report HOT OFF THE PRESS

14,400 New Jobs for November! Right on! A new RECORD! However, the unemployment rate jumped to 4.1%, from the previous 3.5%. Construction continued its slide loosing 3,100 and Professional and business services lost 1,300 jobs. I have to wonder if that is all the loan officers, title agents and real estate agents that have lost their jobs. I must say I believe that number is much higher. I don't know how they could count the Realtors out of work, because they can continue to hang their license even though they are out of a job. The word I hear from all the active Realtors I talk to is their offices are morgues.
I am very happy to see we are still creating jobs. The low unemployment across the country is keeping us from recession right now. Let's hope that trend continues. Keep them employed and they will keep spending money. Keep spending money and we keep creating jobs!
OVERALL, I see this as great news for Arizona!

FROM THE REPORT:
"Arizona’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in November. While the state’s jobless rate increased six-tenths of one percent from October, the November rate is at the same level as one year ago and below the national rate, which remained at 4.7 percent for
the third consecutive month.
Arizona’s economy added 14,400 jobs in November to reach a record total of 2,753,500 nonfarm jobs. The gain was less than what is normally expected for the month of November.
But over-the-year employment growth for Arizona (1.5 percent) remains above the U.S. growth rate (1 percent)."

Read the full report through the link below:
http://www.workforce.az.gov/admin/uploadedPublications/2631_PrDec07.pdf

Intercepting Iran’s Take on America by Thomas Friedman

My blog does not usually take a turn on the political side. But I read this article today by Thomas Friedman and felt compelled to share it with you! I firmly believe we must become energy independent in the reasonable future for our country to continue to be strong, competitive and safe. "Political" is such a difficult term. Both sides of the aisle have answers that need to come together to make this happen. TODAY we have the technology to build cars that get 100 mpg. But WE don't fully understand how much this kind of technology is essential to our long term growth, success, defense...they all fit.
Yes, the market will find the solution over time. However, we need to ask at what cost are we waiting for market to find its way. We need to fast forward for OUR sake!

Intercepting Iran’s Take on America
this By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Published: December 5, 2007
There are two intelligence analyses that are relevant to the balance of power between the U.S. and Iran — one is the latest U.S. assessment of Iran, which certainly gave a much more complex view of what is happening there. The other is the Iranian National Intelligence Estimate of America, which — my guess — would read something like this:

To: President Ahmadinejad
From: The Iranian Ministry of Intelligence
Subject: America
As you’ll recall, in the wake of 9/11, we were extremely concerned that the U.S. would develop a covert program to end its addiction to oil, which would be the greatest threat to Iranian national security. In fact, after Bush’s 2006 State of the Union, in which he decried America’s oil addiction, we had “high confidence” that a comprehensive U.S. clean energy policy would emerge. We were wrong.
Our fears that the U.S. was engaged in a covert “Manhattan Project” to achieve energy independence have been “assuaged.” America’s Manhattan Project turns out to be largely confined to the production of corn ethanol in Iowa, which, our analysts have confirmed from cellphone intercepts between lobbyists and Congressmen, is nothing more than a multibillion-dollar payoff to big Iowa farmers and agro-businesses.
True, thanks to Nancy Pelosi, the U.S. Congress decided to increase the miles per gallon required of U.S. car fleets by the year 2020 — which took us by surprise — but we nevertheless “strongly believe” this will not lead to any definitive breaking of America’s oil addiction, since none of the leading presidential candidates has offered an energy policy that would include a tax on oil or carbon that could trigger a truly transformational shift in America away from fossil fuels.
Therefore, it is “very likely” that Iran’s current level of high oil revenues will last for decades and insulate our regime from any decisive pressures from abroad or from our own people.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/opinion/05friedman.html?n=Top/Opinion/Editorials%20and%20Op-Ed/Op-Ed/Columnists/Thomas%20L%20Friedman

5,000 New Arizona Jobs for October, New Record High

Last month the state of Arizona created an additional 5,000 jobs for a new record level. Today there are 2,737,500 jobs in the state of Arizona. The unemployment rate in Arizona increased from 3.3% to 3.5% and here in the metro Phoenix area it increased from 2.8% to 3%. Given the increase in jobs and increase in unemployment rate, this would indicate growth in the population of employable persons. Year over year the state has created 40,000 net new jobs. This is down from previous years where job growth was around 100,000 jobs. We need to look at one sector for most of this issue, that is construction. Over the past year, construction lost 19,000 jobs. Normally there was gains of approximately 15,000 jobs per year. Combined that accounts for 34,000 less jobs or 50% of the decline in job growth. The good news is the real estate market is picking up and hopefully we will see a decline in the construction job losses in the coming months. The really good news is that the rest of our economy continues to create jobs!

You can read the full jobs report for Arizona at the following link:
http://www.workforce.az.gov/?PAGEID=67&SUBID=151

October Jobs Report: Increase of 166,000 Jobs and 4.7% unemployment rate

Blow out numbers. This economy is so resilient. The huge real estate correction is being offset by the rest of the market. Buyers, it's time to step up to the plate and start buying homes! The economy created 166,000 jobs in October and there were revisions to August and September which the net effect was to lower there results by 10,000 jobs. Net net we are talking 355,000 new jobs over the last 3 months. This in a time where there is wide spread layoffs in construction, banking and Realtors. What would this economy be like had the investors not driven housing up so crazily?
The talking heads are putting a lot of caution on this number right now. Only time will tell. Right now this is good news. I look forward to the Arizona jobs report that will be released later this month.
You can read the full article from CNBC below:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/21594317

Real Estate Correction?? 28,500 Jobs Created in AZ for September

Can you even imagine how RED HOT our economy in Arizona would be if their was not this correction in the real estate market right now. We created 28,500 jobs in September! A great part of that is seasonal employment. But what is more important is the unemployment rate is at 2.8% in the metro Phoenix area vs 3.2% last month and 3.4% last year. Come on people move here! We have JOBS, we have HOUSES and they are much CHEAPER today than LAST YEAR!Construction, of course, gave up 2,000 jobs. Then most every other sector added jobs. The largest was in government for all the teachers going back to work. You can read the full report at:

http://www.workforce.az.gov/admin/uploadedPublications/2601_PrOct2007.pdf