Home Sales UP .4% in November, in the West UP 10.3%

Homes sales are increasing here in the West! I like that! I think we have hit a bottom in the number of homes sold, but prices still will come down. But are they coming down? Or are they down and sellers just don't know it yet!
As interest rates and prices continue to drop, buyers are stepping back into the market. I sold 3 homes to buyers this month. All three felt prices may go down further, but the home they bought was a good buy. What is a good buy? They were homes that were priced right for today's market. The buyers might be able to buy the same floor plan for less in the spring. But it won't be the same home. It won't be the same lot. It won't have the same up grades. They are all in for the long term and wanted to make a smart purchase for their family. In each case, they were the perfect home for the buyers. Ones that would be difficult to replace. This is what sellers must keep in mind. Why would a buyer write an offer on my home?

"By JEANNINE AVERSA,
AP
Posted: 2007-12-31 11:30:58
WASHINGTON (AP) - Sales of previously owned homes inched up in November but that didn't change the overall bleak picture for an ailing housing industry that has been suffering through a painful slump.The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that sales of existing single-family homes, condominiums and townhouses rose 0.4 percent in November from October, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 million units. Over the last 12 months, however, existing home sales have plunged 20 percent, underscoring the troubles in the housing sector.Economists were calling for sales to either move up slightly or hold steady for November...
...Sales were mixed across different regions of the country.Existing home sales jumped 10.3 percent in November from October in the West. They were flat in the Midwest. However, they fell by 2 percent in the South and by 3.3 percent in the Northeast"
Read the full story through the link below:
http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/home-sales-edge-up-04-percent/n20071231113009990006

Lane at Bel Esprit, SOLD, 4044 E. Anderson Drive

That is another home sold and closed by The Cameron Team. This home located in Lane at Bel Esprit, the Foothills neighborhood at Tatum and Bell in North East Phoenix. We sold this home to our own buyer. On average 2.5% of homes are sold by the listing agent, with this sale we continue our record of averaging 12-15% of our listings sold by our team. Are you interested why? Just give me a call to review!

Happy New Year!

Jeff Cameron

New-Home Sales Tumbled 9% in November from October

New home sales and New home permits dropping is a good thing. Buyers are finding better deals on the resale market. We are looking for the bottom in permits and then to see the New Home sales begin to pick up. So far this holiday season we have not seen the dramatic drop in resale home inventory. Last year inventory levels dropped around 15% from their peak in September to the first of the year. This year inventory levels have only dropped about 5%, but the year is not over yet.

In the ..."West, however, sales rose 4 percent. "

By JEANNINE AVERSA,
Associated Press
Posted: 2007-12-28 13:43:36
WASHINGTON (AP) - The housing market plunged deeper into despair last month, with sales of new homes plummeting to their lowest level in more than 12 years. The slump worsened even more than most analysts expected, heightening fears that the country might be thrust into a recession.
http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/home-sales-plunge-feed-recession-fears/n20071228134309990011

CONGRATULATIONS TO THE DECEMBER EMAIL CONTEST WINNERS!

The monthly email contest is back. We had about 30 of you respond and enter for the drawing. The prize this month was a $100 Visa gift card. Perfect timing for the Holidays. Our winner received the $100 gift card on Saturday December 22nd.
The winners are Mike and JoAnna Broady! Congratulations to Mike and JoAnna. Mike and JoAnna bought a home through The Cameron Team. They found us through our website, relocating from California.

Remember to watch for our easy to enter monthly email drawing. We have a lot of great prizes to give away. Each month we will send an email with a simple question answered by linking back to our website to find that answer. Then just email the answer along with who you are, your contact information. We don't know everyone by their email address.

RE/MAX 2000 CLOSES 13 OFFICES IN METRO PHOENIX

It's happening...the bursting real estate bubble is starting to shows signs of its terrific strength. This weekend RE/MAX 2000 shut its doors. If you have a home under contract through them, no worries, the closing will not affect your closing. Some 350 agents have to switch brokers, or, well some were probably not really in business any more. Also, 20 salaried positions were lost. This is why I was so happy to see a positive jobs report for November. I know real estate, title and mortgage companies are dropping like flies. We still created jobs, even though this industry is falling apart. Well the GOOD NEWS is the strong will survive. That is why my team is still hear, still at the office every day and STILL SELLING HOMES! We have 4 sales for December, are in contract negotiations and I was going to write an offer yesterday, but another buyer beat us to the home. Just goes to say, even in a buyer's market when you find the right home don't hesitate.
What's next? I think many more companies will close and people will loose their jobs. I heard a report last week that in California, they are expecting 40% of the real estate agents that were in the business January of 2007, to be out of business by January of 2008. We in Arizona, tend to follow the California trends.
If I were looking for a real estate agent right now, I would make sure I hired a full time, successful and experienced agent. These newbies and the churn of real estate agents is part of why we have a bubble. I can't say I am happy we are in a buyer's market, but I am pleased with some of the results. Hopefully, this will make some permanent changes to the Realtors and Loan officers. One for each would be that new real estate agents go through a period of a 2 years in apprenticeship and for lenders they need to be licensed.

ARIZONA CARDINALS 30 ATLANTA FALCONS 27

Yes, we can win a game. Even if it takes an overtime victory to beat the lowly Atlanta Falcons. With the depletion of our defense to injuries, any victory now is awesome. The Cardinals have a chance next Sunday to finish the season 8 wins and 8 losses. Nothing for most to jump up and down over, but for the Arizona Cardinals this would be their 3rd non-loosing season since moving to Arizona 19 years ago. With that in mind, you can understand how this last game is REAL important to a fan like me. Let's prove things have changed!
Next year would be great if:
1. Our franchise quarterback stays healthy and matures to success.
2. We upgrade a few positions, like defensive backs!
3. We re-sign our key player and loose none to free agency.
4. Our depth keeps the injury bug from striking so hard. Understanding there will be injuries.
5. We go from the most penalized team to one of the least penalized teams. Top 5!
6. We have double digit victories.
7. We win our division.
8. We go beyond the first round of the playoffs and have a playoff victory.
9. Our 12th player helps us win every home game.
10. We do what no Arizona Cardinals team has done before!
Just another Cardinals fan!
Has this year been fun watching the play of Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald? The first half of the season our defense was awesome. Ken, get this team healthy, add some depth, get us a shut down corner and a partner for Adrian Wilson, get Neil Rackers a shrink, re-sign our good players, get some great draft picks and continue to be a GREAT COACH. This team has so much talent, I want to see them succeed before they get old or move on to success with other teams. I have been saying all year 2008 would be our year, I meant in the playoffs. Now I understand I must have meant the 2008 regular season! We shall see, ANY GIVEN SUNDAY!

Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007

It is bad enough to loose your home to foreclosure or sell in a short sale, but then the bank comes after you for the deficiency and if you don't pay they 1099 you for the debt forgiveness. What does that mean "they 1099 you for the debt forgiveness." They send notification to the IRS that you were forgiven for tens of thousands of dollars and the IRS taxes you for that. Talk about hitting someone when they are down. The borrower can BK the debt, but with the new law, the only way is through FULL liquidation. You loose it all. However, you cannot BK the tax debt.
Let's say for example purposes, a borrower owed $400,000 in mortgage debt. The market turned and the home was sold in a short sale for $275,000. The borrower would get a deficiency judgement for all the cost of the lender; $125,0000 difference in sales price and payoff, $25,000 in closing costs, $10,000 to $30,000 in holding costs, $20,000 to $50,000 in charges related to the foreclosure process. So, the borrower could be hit will a 1099 for as much as $230,000 in deficiency. Then let's say they are in a 25% tax bracket, they would owe the IRS $57,000 in taxes. This does not go away. No BK, no nothing. The IRS is there for ever.
Friday, the president signed into law the bill, HR 3648, the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007. This law is retroactive to January 1, 2007 and last 3 years. I read it to relieve borrowers of the IRS taxes during this time for debt relief. This is a big step at helping people that the real estate bubble hurt badly. They can see light at the end of the tunnel. I look forward to more information on the bill. They are usually quite long and will have many specifications. One being this is for personal residence only. Check with your Tax advisor if this applies to you.
http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2007/12/senates-mortgag.html

One more step to helping this crisis. There are 2 more steps I believe they should take:
1. In California, the state with most of the foreclosures, the bank cannot go after the borrower for the deficiency on their principal residence. This should be the rule nation wide. You loose your home and the bank hits you with a HUGE judgement. You are now forced to BK or ride out the judgement. You just lost your largest investment of your life, why be forced to BK and loose everything else. If you loose your home, you probably are not in a position to pay $50K, $100K or even in the example above $230k back to the bank.

2. The second step I believe should be taken is to give borrowers an incentive to sell in a short sale, rather than living in the home for free until foreclosure. One may say, the short sale saves their credit. But no, banks are so strict in that after 3 30 day lates occur on your mortgage your credit is destroyed. I am told there very little difference between one borrower that had 3 30 day lates occur and got caught up versus a borrower that went all the way to foreclosure. They need to change this position. I believe they will in the future, but people need to know now. That way they will take the extra steps to sell short rather than just live for FREE and move on.

WHY THE FED MUST LOWER RATES FURTHER

First of all, wow, our economy was on the verge of surging this year. Then the housing bubble burst. The bursting has not stopped the economy at this point. Can you imagine what it would have been like if another 250,000 houses were being built, furnished, landscaped and filled with new exciting toys! I believe the housing issue will take more than 1% from GDP this year, yet we grew at 4.9% last quarter, that is an economy ON FIRE!
However, we do have the housing issue and the Fed needs to act more aggressively so we can turn the corner. I hear many talking heads saying lower interest rates is what caused the problem. LOW INTEREST RATES DID NOT CAUSE THE PROBLEM. The problem was caused by widespread loan fraud by un-licensed loan officers no longer in the business. It was not only their fault, we all owe a little responsibility. Why is the loan fraud the major cause? Buyers bought homes they could not afford. People that should not be investors, became investors. Demand swelled, thus driving prices higher. Lenders then made it easier to get wacky financing. Appraiser, the supposed check and balance, gave ridiculous valuations. Even after the peak in 2005, appraiser let homes continue to appreciate. It was over but some buyers and their real estate team ignored the end, stretching the bubble even further. As it stretched into 2007, I thought wow we made it, 2006 was the slow down. "We are 18 months from the peak, supply was dropping demand was increasing," I too was fooled. Then the first sub-prime blow up in March! It was an eye opener. But most people would not fully grasp what was happening. It was hard for me to convence people, after being the naysayer through most of 2006.
Today there are new steps being taken to stop the growth of demand. Too bad this wasn't done in the peak, instead they waited till we were on the way down to make it worse. However, appraisers have stricter guidelines, lenders have new guidelines, many of the loan products available before are just gone and demand is down with supply growing.
I was talking with one of the commercial experts at the office yesterday, Tim Theiss. Our discussion was about investors and what was then and where we are today. We both heard many investors say, "let's do $0 down or very little down" for our investment property. You see, a real investor has 20-30% to put down and understands that is needed to keep the cash flow positive. The new guidelines are putting the real investors back in the saddle for investing. No more low down investor lending.
I started this blog off with the Fed needs to lower further. They do. Many talking heads are saying that was the problem, it wasn't. It was loan fraud and ridiculously eased guidelines that was the problem. You see today, we have a supply and demand imbalance. To fix that we need to decrease supply and increase demand. The way to decrease supply is to stop the foreclosures (another day), stop building new homes and rent those vacant properties. To increase demand we need to lower prices, lower interest rates and create stability in the marketplace.
By lowering prices and lowering interest rates demand will jump. Both of these will bring more buyers into the pool of available buyers for a specific product by increasing what they can buy and how much they can spend. By making those two changes, buyers will step back into the market and make purchases. As demand picks up, stability will begin to regain strength in the market place.
Why will this not restart the problem? Because these buyers will not be getting teaser rates. I believe most will opt for the 30 year mortgages, since the pricing is close to the same as 3, 5 and 7 year pricing. Thus giving them long term comfort in the loan. Now, the lending side will be more strict, also keeping buyers from getting into the wrong loan or over paying for a home.
Lower interest rates is not the problem, it is the answer!

Arizona November JOBS report HOT OFF THE PRESS

14,400 New Jobs for November! Right on! A new RECORD! However, the unemployment rate jumped to 4.1%, from the previous 3.5%. Construction continued its slide loosing 3,100 and Professional and business services lost 1,300 jobs. I have to wonder if that is all the loan officers, title agents and real estate agents that have lost their jobs. I must say I believe that number is much higher. I don't know how they could count the Realtors out of work, because they can continue to hang their license even though they are out of a job. The word I hear from all the active Realtors I talk to is their offices are morgues.
I am very happy to see we are still creating jobs. The low unemployment across the country is keeping us from recession right now. Let's hope that trend continues. Keep them employed and they will keep spending money. Keep spending money and we keep creating jobs!
OVERALL, I see this as great news for Arizona!

FROM THE REPORT:
"Arizona’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in November. While the state’s jobless rate increased six-tenths of one percent from October, the November rate is at the same level as one year ago and below the national rate, which remained at 4.7 percent for
the third consecutive month.
Arizona’s economy added 14,400 jobs in November to reach a record total of 2,753,500 nonfarm jobs. The gain was less than what is normally expected for the month of November.
But over-the-year employment growth for Arizona (1.5 percent) remains above the U.S. growth rate (1 percent)."

Read the full report through the link below:
http://www.workforce.az.gov/admin/uploadedPublications/2631_PrDec07.pdf

Morgan Stanley Post Loss on 4Q $9.4 Billion Writedown

AP
Posted: 2007-12-19 07:56:04
NEW YORK (AP) - Morgan Stanley , the No. 2 U.S. investment bank, on Wednesday reported a larger-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter loss due to a $9.4 billion write down from its exposure to sub prime and other mortgage-related investments. The company also said China's government-controlled investment vehicle, China Investment Corp., has invested $5 billion to help replenish its capital. And Chairman and Chief Executive John Mack said because of the poor performance, he would not take a bonus this year.

This will probably move the stock market lower today. Wow, writing down over $9 billion in investments. So, if their portfolio of mortgage backed securities is diversified and they are taking $9 billion in write downs for this quarter, how much do they own in mortgage backed securities. The failure rate could be as high as 25% if most are sub prime, but they don't loose all the money. When they foreclose they should recapture at least 50% of their investment, unlike investing in ENRON.

read the full story:
http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/morgan-stanley-post-loss-on-4q-writedown/n20071219075609990004

US Foreclosure Filings Up 68 Pct in November

LOS ANGELES (AP) - U.S. homeowners increasingly failed to keep up with their home loan payments in November, as the number of foreclosure filings surged 68 percent nationwide compared with the same month a year ago, according to a mortgage research company. In all, 201,950 foreclosure filings were reported last month, compared with 120,334 in November 2006, Irvine-based RealtyTrac Inc. said Wednesday.

Supply and Demand are the biggest issues affecting our housing market. The increase in foreclosures is increasing the supply of homes for sale. Thus with an imbalance this will drive prices lower.

Read the whole story below:

http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/us-foreclosure-filings-up-68-pct-in-nov/n20071219052909990002

Luminary and Asia de Cuba

It was Lisa's birthday on Friday. We spent the day together and had a grand day! We got the kids off to school and headed for a 2 hour massage. After the massage, we had lunch at White Chocolate Grill. From there we went to the Cine Capri and watched "I am Legend." I really enjoyed the movie, Lisa didn't like it as much. The running action on the screen made her stomach a little queasy.
That evening we went to the Luminary at the Botanical Gardens. It was cold, but we had fun. If you haven't been, dress warm. Even bring a blanket depending on the night. The stars were out and the chill was in the air, but it was a beautiful evening. We enjoyed some Jazz music, sipped hot chocolate and strolled along the trail. After the Luminary we went to dinner.
Dinner was at Asia de Cuba, located in the Mondrian Hotel in down town Scottsdale. It was a culinary delight. The restaurant is all white, the staff wears white cloths, the tables are white, the bar was white and the art was white. It was a very modern look. The restaurant combines elements of Asian and Cuban cuisine in a sharing style format. We went for the chef's sampler. It included calamari salad, beef spring roll, tuna tar tar, and as the main dishes we enjoyed whitefish and pork. For desert Lisa went for the Chocolate cake, she loves Chocolate. Everything was delicious and the service was perfect. My favorite was the whitefish, it was marinated and had a sweet twang to it. We started the evening with Martinis and then went into the appetizers. The tuna was fresh and tasty. I was very impressed by the Calamari salad, the chef blended some unique flavors and it was delicious. We enjoyed our evening at Asia de Cuba.

NFL Experience Tickets on sale today

If you are a football fan, then the NFL Experience is a must. It is a great family outing! Lisa and I went to the one in Pasadena and the one in San Diego. We missed the one here 12 years ago. The event is every year in the city where the Super Bowl is being played. We have had a great time at each of the events. I highly suggest attending this year in Glendale. You can get tickets and find out more about the NFL experience at the link below.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8027f91d&template=without-video&confirm=true

Another Listing Sold By The Cameron Team!

One of our past client from Scottsdale, referred a client from Texas that had a home in Mesa! This home had been on the market for over a year without selling. The Cameron Team took over the listing and got it SOLD in 28 days!!

Fed's Battle Plans For Today's Credit Crisis

The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the Fed Funds rate and Discount rate by 1/4% each yesterday. The market was not happy with that, looking for deeper cuts, and the DOW fell by nearly 300 points. Today the Federal Reserve expanded more on their plan to combat issues in our market. Mainly they are offering liquidity by making funds available for banks to borrow.
This is why so many mortgage companies failed earlier this year. Their source of funds dried up and they were forced to shut their doors overnight. The Federal Reserve along with other central banks, European Central Bank, the central banks of England, Canada and Switzerland, to confront what it called elevated pressures in the credit markets. The Fed will create a temporary auction facility to make funds available for the financial markets during this credit crisis. The market was very pleased with this plan and the DOW rallied.
It makes a lot of sense that lower rates are part of what caused this problem and won't necessarily fix the problem. This plan of making funds available to the credit markets is good. Lenders closed their doors earlier this year due to their source of funds being turned off. Now they will have a place to turn for temporary relief and not be in a do or die situation from their source investors. Only time will tell and I hope they are right.

Intercepting Iran’s Take on America by Thomas Friedman

My blog does not usually take a turn on the political side. But I read this article today by Thomas Friedman and felt compelled to share it with you! I firmly believe we must become energy independent in the reasonable future for our country to continue to be strong, competitive and safe. "Political" is such a difficult term. Both sides of the aisle have answers that need to come together to make this happen. TODAY we have the technology to build cars that get 100 mpg. But WE don't fully understand how much this kind of technology is essential to our long term growth, success, defense...they all fit.
Yes, the market will find the solution over time. However, we need to ask at what cost are we waiting for market to find its way. We need to fast forward for OUR sake!

Intercepting Iran’s Take on America
this By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Published: December 5, 2007
There are two intelligence analyses that are relevant to the balance of power between the U.S. and Iran — one is the latest U.S. assessment of Iran, which certainly gave a much more complex view of what is happening there. The other is the Iranian National Intelligence Estimate of America, which — my guess — would read something like this:

To: President Ahmadinejad
From: The Iranian Ministry of Intelligence
Subject: America
As you’ll recall, in the wake of 9/11, we were extremely concerned that the U.S. would develop a covert program to end its addiction to oil, which would be the greatest threat to Iranian national security. In fact, after Bush’s 2006 State of the Union, in which he decried America’s oil addiction, we had “high confidence” that a comprehensive U.S. clean energy policy would emerge. We were wrong.
Our fears that the U.S. was engaged in a covert “Manhattan Project” to achieve energy independence have been “assuaged.” America’s Manhattan Project turns out to be largely confined to the production of corn ethanol in Iowa, which, our analysts have confirmed from cellphone intercepts between lobbyists and Congressmen, is nothing more than a multibillion-dollar payoff to big Iowa farmers and agro-businesses.
True, thanks to Nancy Pelosi, the U.S. Congress decided to increase the miles per gallon required of U.S. car fleets by the year 2020 — which took us by surprise — but we nevertheless “strongly believe” this will not lead to any definitive breaking of America’s oil addiction, since none of the leading presidential candidates has offered an energy policy that would include a tax on oil or carbon that could trigger a truly transformational shift in America away from fossil fuels.
Therefore, it is “very likely” that Iran’s current level of high oil revenues will last for decades and insulate our regime from any decisive pressures from abroad or from our own people.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/05/opinion/05friedman.html?n=Top/Opinion/Editorials%20and%20Op-Ed/Op-Ed/Columnists/Thomas%20L%20Friedman

Inventory of Single Family Homes drops by 948 over the past week

OK, now that is what I want to see. Inventory levels of Single Family Homes throughout the metro Phoenix area dropped by 948, to a level of 46,320. That is good to see, but we need to see more. I would like to see a drop of 6,000 homes by the first of the year. Only time will tell, let's see what happens.

Another Home Sold By The Cameron Team!

Another listing sold in Lane at Bel Esprit. Once again The Cameron Team is the #1 Listing Agent in this neighborhood, 12 years running now!! In this case, we sold this listing to our own buyer!

Mountain Biking in McDowell Mountains

Rain or shine it's best to just ride as much as you can! I went for a quick ride Saturday morning in between the showers. I left my garage and 2 minutes later I am on the trail. One of my favorite things about living in McDowell Mountain Ranch is access to so many awesome trails. And they are great, thrilling trails! The trail was pretty trashed from the rain. There were big ruts and I rode all day over pure rock. The dirt and sand was washed away! It was beautiful on the trail, I had a great ride. Just after arriving home, the rain started again. I picked the perfect time. Any of you who like to ride, contact me. Let's GO!

Buyer's Choosing Vacant Homes

In reviewing the numbers, I am seeing a trend with buyers and vacant homes. While 41%of the homes for sale today are vacant, 51% of the Pending homes are vacant and 45% of the sold and closed homes are vacant. Thus buyers are choosing vacant homes at a greater rate than of those occupied and that trend is increasing.
Why???
In short, regardless of why the home is vacant, those sellers are more motivated than occupied property sellers. That is it, short and simple!

McDowell Mountain Ranch Annual Home Sales

It looks as though 2007 is going to end up very close to 2006, as far as home sales go in McDowell Mountain Ranch. Given all the Pending Sales as of December 1st close escrow in 2007, we will have 210 home sales for this year in McDowell Mountain Ranch. That is only slightly lower than the 216 sales of last year. However, sales have dropped more than 50% from the peak in 2003. Oh, shocked you there, huh. You expected 2004 or 2005 as a peak? Many people are unaware of the fact that the inventory of homes for sale was diminished by high sales in 2003, that sparked the run up in 2004. Then in 2005, even though price rose all year long, so did inventory levels. Looking at the graph, we see today's sales levels are 27% below the sales in 2000. Sooner or later the buyers will come back to into the market. That will increase sales, lower inventory and move this market from a buyer's market to a more neutral market. Well buyers, you have a great selection of homes, interest rates are back below 6% and you are in control. Get out there and buy a home!

Home Inventory Falls, Foothills Neighborhood at Tatum and Bell

Yes, we are off the highest level of single family homes for sale. In the "foothills," neighborhood (named due to elementary school) at Tatum and Bell in North East Phoenix, inventory levels of single family homes for sales peaked in September at 65 homes for sale. Today there are 54 homes for sale. That is a drop of 17%. This is one sign of what it will take to move from a buyer's market to a neutral market. I started tracking this neighborhood and a few others this year. I have been tracking the overall market for the past 3 years. What a great tool. I wish I was tracking back in 2003 and 2004. I would have forecast the "great sellers market" better.
For the past 11 years I have been the top agent in this neighborhood. My sales have dropped off, but I am still the top listing agent with 12% of the market share. My competition is 4 other agents with 2 sales each and then 73 one hit wonders. Not to sound rude, most of the agents are good agents. However, I get amazed at what some of the agents do. They just don't know the neighborhood very well and it can hurt their clients.