METRO PHOENIX HOME SALES AND TRACKING

Another week and another good week of sales. Last week I recorded 1,242 homes sales. Not the best week of the year, but another in the mid 1,200's. The 4 week moving average came back above 1,200 to 1,204. It had dropped due to the Memorial Day holiday week, where sales slacked off. Again, the weekly sales are at the highest point in over 2 years. This is great news as our market moves out of the mess it is in. We are starting to see multiple offers on homes again, only those priced right. The problem is still TOO MANY SELLERS don't understand they are over priced. The BEST thing they can do for their value is take the home off the market. The quicker we get to a supply and demand balance, the sooner prices stop sliding. It is worst in Scottsdale. I have been looking for a buyer looking in the $800,000 to $1,250,000 range. I see nice homes that are not selling, then I see similar homes priced $100,000 to $200,000 more. I think, "boy if they would just get out and see what I see." If they did, then they would know their choice is to lower, take their home off the market OR sit there and hurt us all by increasing the glut of "homes that will not sell!"
Pending home sales are in the 8,000 range today. I have only recorded 5 weeks where Pending home sales has been in the 8,000's since October of 2005. Another great stat showing the market is turning to the positive.
What is selling? When I look at the market, 45% of homes are vacant. That is really the only way to track REO and SHORT SALE properties, because agents don't fill out listings properly. I know not all vacant homes are REO and SHORT SALES, but not all SHORT SALES are vacant. So, it is the best barometer. With 45% of the Active listings being vacant, 65% of the Pending and Solds are vacant properties. What does that tell us. It tells us buyers are choosing those vacant homes over owner occupied homes at a ratio close to 2 : 1. Usually the owner occupied homes are in better shape and show better than do vacant homes. Buyers must be selected the vacant homes due to value. VALUE = PRICE! We can look and study all day, we still come back to what we all know, PRICE IT RIGHT AND IT SELLS!

Just my opinion,

Jeff Cameron

This weeks Numbers:
Single Family Inventory 43,255
Months of Inventory based on Pending 5.5
Pending Home Sales 7,934
Last 7 days Sales 1,242
4 week moving average Pending Home Sales 7,815
4 week moving average Last 7 days Sales 1,204
4 week moving average Home Closings 1,147