WHERE IS OUR MARKET HEADED????

Big question, where is it headed. Well we know one thing for sure, over the long run it is headed up. We are projected to grow by 2.2 million people here in the Phoenix Metro area over the next 12 years. By 2020, our valley population is expected to exceed 6 million people. That is like added the entire city of Denver Colorado to the valley. Therefore, over the long term property values will continue to go up.



What about today??? Well today the market is weak. We have the following problems:



Too much inventory.

Demand is down.

It is more difficult to qualify for a mortgage today.

Too many upside down sellers doing short sales.

Too many foreclosure homes

Too many buyers renting, while waiting for a bottom in the market.

However, as demand returns to the market our market will improve. Right now with lower prices, lower interest rates and being in the selling season; demand is returning to the market. It will take some time to transition out of this buyer's market, but it will eventually happen.

The Cameron Team Listed Another Home For Sale!

We Have Another Wonderful Home Listed For Sale....



If You Are Looking For A Custom Home With Style...This Is It! Home Has An Artistic Touch With Taste & Creativity From The Inside Out!! One Acre+ With Awesome Landscaping Front & Back, Huge Storage Area, Plenty Of Room For Rv/Boat/Horses With 2 Car Carport In Addition To Completely Finished 2 Car Garage Plus Huge Extended Covered Patio! Great Open Floor Plan With Custom Metal Fireplace In Family Room, Custom Painted Concrete Flooring, Wood Floors To Be Done In Kitchen/Foyer To Match Laundry Room, Open Kitchen With Breakfast Bar And Huge Pantry/Laundry Room. Must See This Beautiful Home To Appreciate! Great Desert Hills Location Close To State Land With Mountain Views & Endless Trail Riding!



Click on this link to see the Virtual Tour of the home showing the property inside & out.
http://www.visualtour.com/show.asp?T=1395947



IF YOU OR SOMEONE YOU KNOW IS LOOKING TO PURCHASE IN THE DESERT HILLS AREA, PLEASE TAKE A LOOK AT THIS BEAUTIFUL HOME AND CONTACT US FOR MORE INFORMATION. WE WOULD LOVE TO HELP!

A GREAT RIDE ON SATURDAY!

Saturday was a beautiful day for a ride in the McDowell Mountains. John and I took off about 7:30 Saturday morning. The top of the mountains were in the clouds. It was AWESOME. I love riding. We started from home and road to 105th Street and McDowell Mountain Ranch Road to drop into the Quartz trail. From there we picked up the Paradise trail and road through to the Gateway loop. The Gateway Loop has an incredible downhill run that every thrill seekers loves. From there we picked up a new trail and ended up at The Village gym located in DC Ranch. Time was short and we took the road home. It was a great day for a RIDE!

Here I am on the Paradise trail. This is a little cat track on the side of the mountain before the big switchbacks. It's a fun ride. My quads are still feeling it today, Tuesday. You can see Camelback Mountain and the Butts in the back ground.

My buddy John Todaro, he is always joking around.



Close up from the earlier shot. After loosing 20 pounds for a fund raiser, I put on a winter pack. Now the weather is nice again, it's time to burn it off!

HOME SALES CONTINUE TO RISE IN PHOENIX

Prices may be down, but sales continue to rise. Last week 939 homes sold or went into a Pending status. Our next goal is to top the 1,000 mark. Last week was the best week since the week of June 11, 2007. Months of supply based on Pending home sales dropped to 9.1 months, down from 9.7 last week and 14.6 at the beginning of the year. The tide is turning, but it moves as slow as a big ship. Well a oil tanker type of ship.
My number are valley wide here in the metro Phoenix area and only count Single Family Homes, SFH. I track weekly cutting off at 3 pm on Mondays. My numbers are taken from the ARMLS.

Another Home Under Contract....

The Cameron Team has another home under contract. Our buyers, The Gribbens, have decided to purchase the home located at 18833 N. 15th Place in North Phoenix. After showing them several homes throughout Phoenix, they have narrowed down and are looking forward to the successful purchase of this home in February.

We Have Successfully SOLD Another Home....

The Cameron Team has closed escrow on the home located at 8904 N. 15th Lane Phoenix, AZ 85021 in the Central Corridor. This wonderful home was listed by The Cameron Team and we also represented the buyer in purchasing because of the call they made from our sign. These buyers will soon be listing their previous home for sale with The Cameron Team too!

DESPITE ADDICTION TO OIL, US TRADE DEFICIT IS DOWN IN 2007

The good news is the US trade deficit shrunk in 2007 by 6.2%. The bad news is we passed $711.6 Billion of our equity to the rest of the world. That is equal to giving the following companies to the rest of the world's investors:

Coke
McDonalds
Home Depot
Citigroup
Motorola
Microsoft
AT&T

Most of that deficit is due to oil imports and the price of oil today. We import 11 million barrels of oil per day. At $90 per barrel, then we are sending $990 million American dollars to other countries. That is near $1 Billion dollars a day. That is over $360 billion dollars a year, which is more than half of our trade deficit. If we lowered oil to $45 per barrel, then we could lower our deficit by $180 BILLION PER YEAR. In that case we would keep Home Depot and Citigroup as American owned.
Below is the article about the trade deficit.

Trade Deficit Eased Last Year
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER,
Associated Press
Posted: 2008-02-14 09:34:08
WASHINGTON (AP) - Despite a soaring foreign oil bill and another record deficit with China, the overall U.S. trade deficit declined in 2007 after setting records for five consecutive years. The Commerce Department reported Thursday that the deficit dropped to $711.6 billion last year, a decline of 6.2 percent. The trade deficit with China continued to rise, jumping by 10.2 percent to $256.3 billion. That was the largest gap ever recorded with a single country, as Chinese imports surged despite a string of high-profile recalls of tainted products. The Bush administration credits its free trade policies for spurring strong growth in exports while critics contend that even with the lower overall deficit, the imbalance is still nearly double what it was in 2001, the year Bush took office. For December, the deficit fell by 6.9 percent to $58.8 billion, a bigger-than-expected improvement to close out the year. Analysts said the decline in the dollar over the past two years has helped spur strong increases in U.S. exports, with American goods now cheaper and thus more competitive in many overseas markets.
Read the full article at: http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/trade-deficit-eased-last-year/n20080214093409990007

FEEDBACK ON HOMEQUEST

The Cameron Team offers this awesome home searching website that uses maps instead of lists to search the MLS. One of our clients said, "I appreciate your following up, and I really like the site. It is much easier to see everything on a map than in a list and has given me a much better idea of the market in the valley."

If you have any interest in using this product, or know anybody who may benefit from it, please email us your contact info or visit the following website to sign up: www.TCTAZHomes.com

VALLEY HOMES SALES GROW 5.1%

The numbers are out and last week 926 homes went under contract here in Metro Phoenix market place. That represents an increase of 5.1% from the previous week and the highest week since the week of June 11, 2007. On that day we registered sales of 1,024 for the week. Last week is our best week of sales since before Sup Prime II in August.
Months of supply based on Pending homes dropped to 9.7 months. That is the best reading since July of 2007.
We are moving in the right direction. It's like we started on the 1 inch line in football and have gotten a first down on the 10 yard and 1 inch line. We have a long way to go, but things are moving in a positive direction.

February Email Contest

This is going to be a tricky question and you might have to do some research for the answer.


Who is the Quarterback for the winning team of the Super Bowl XLII?? And what was the score of the game??

Because this month's question is about the Super Bowl, the winner will receive this commemorative Super Bowl plaque.

SUB PRIME I, ONE YEAR ANNIVERSARY

Today is the one year anniversary of "Sub Prime I." Our real estate market in metro Phoenix was recovering from the slow down one year ago, until the sub prime bomb went off. I was happy to see the market recovering: Inventory was at 37,906; Pending home sales were at 6,905, Supply based on Pending was 5.5 months and sales for the week were at 1,264. In contrast, today our market is: Inventory level is 45,676; Pending home sales are at 4,388; Supply based on Pending is at 10.4 months; and sales for the week are at 881. As bleak as that might sound it is much better today that we were right after Sub Prime II in August. Let me put this in a chart:

Period ---Inventory ----Pending Sales --Months Supply --Wkly sales

pre SP I --------37,906-------- 6,905------------- 5.5 ----------1,264
Post SP II ------47,406-------- 3,694 ------------12.6 -----------516
Today ----------45,676-------- 4,388 ------------10.4 -----------881

It really appeared as we had survived the slow down in February of 2007, as these numbers show. However, the hidden bomb was SP I and SP II (sub prime 1 in March of 2007 and sub prime 2 in August of 2007). The question today is are we moving out of the woods or is there a SP III on the horizon. I hope we are headed out of the woods and here is why I feel that way:

1. Interest rates are much lower today. Our real estate market is very interest rate sensitive.
2. Demand is moving back into the market. Pending home sales are up almost 50% from the beginning of the year.
3. Prices are down. In some areas prices have fallen over 50% and in many areas they are below the boom pricing.
4. Raising the Jumbo limit. If this is true for the valley, it will be the shot of adrenaline we need.

Only time will tell. One thing about finding a bottom to any market. You won't know until the market has started to recover.

FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC TO RAISE LIMIT TO $729,750

From what I am reading this morning the Economic Stimulas Package sent to Bush includes steps to help the housing market. The most important step is to raise the ceiling for FNMA and FHLM. By raising the ceiling to $729,750 from the current level of $417,000 it lowers the interest rate for those borrowers. One thing I have been trying to discover is will the limit be $729,750 everywhere. I have heard rumors of the limit going up to 125% of the average price, not to exceed $729,750. I cannot find any data regarding that specification. For us in Arizona we want the limit to go to $729,750, not 125% of the average price. Our average price is $313,000. So, to raise the limit to 125% of that does us no good, the limit is already higher.

Let's pray the limit goes to $729,750 EVERYWHERE!

Important Historical (Hysterical) Data

In The 1500's
The next time you are washing your hands and complain because the water temperature isn't just how you like it, think about how things used to be. Here are some facts about the1500s:

Most people got married in June because they took their yearly bath in May, and still smelled pretty good by June. However, they were starting to smell, so brides carried a bouquet of flowers to hide the body odor. Hence the custom today of carrying a bouquet when getting married.

Baths consisted of a big tub filled with hot water. The man of the house had the privilege of the nice clean water, then all the other sons and men, then the women and finally the children. Last of all the babies. By then the water was so dirty you could actually lose someone in it. Hence the saying, Don't throw the baby out with the Bath water..

Houses had thatched roofs-thick straw-piled high, with no wood underneath. It was the only place for animals to get warm, so all the cats and other small animals (mice, bugs) lived in the roof . When it rained it became slippery and sometimes the animals would slip and fall off the roof. Hence the saying It's raining cats and dogs.

There was nothing to stop things from falling into the house. This posed a real problem in the bedroom where bugs and other droppings could mess up your nice clean bed. Hence, a bed with big posts and a sheet hung over the top afforded some protection. That's how canopy beds came into existence.

The floor was dirt. Only the wealthy had something other than dirt. Hence the saying, Dirt poor. The wealthy had slate floors that would get slippery in the winter when wet, so they spread thresh (straw) on floor to help keep their footing. As the winter wore on, they added more thresh until, when you opened the door, it would all start slipping outside. A piece of wood was placed in the entrance way. Hence the saying a thresh hold.
(Getting quite an education, aren't you?)
In those old days, they cooked in the kitchen with a big kettle that always hung over the fire. Every day they lit the fire and added things to the pot. They ate mostly vegetables a nd did not get much meat. They would eat the stew for dinner, leaving leftovers in the pot to get cold overnight and then start over the next day. Sometimes stew had food in it that had been there for quite a while. Hence the rhyme, Peas porridge hot, peas porridge cold, peas porridge in the pot nine days old.

Sometimes they could obtain pork, which made them feel quite special. When visitors came over, they would hang up their bacon to show off. It was a sign of wealth that a man could, bring home the bacon. They would cut off a little to share with guests and would all sit around and chew the fat.

Those with money had plates made of pewter. Food with high acid content caused some of the lead to leach onto the food, causing lead poisoning death. This happened most often with tomatoes, so for the next 400 years or so, tomatoes were considered poisonous.

Bread was divided according to status. Workers got the burnt bottom of the loaf, the family got the middle, and guests got the top, or the upper crust.

Lead cups were used to drink ale or whiskey. The combination would sometimes knock the imbibers out for a couple of days. Someone walking along the road would take them for dead and prepare them for burial. They were laid out on the kitchen table for a couple of days and the family would gather around and eat and drink and wait and see if they would wake up. Hence the custom of holding a wake.

England is old and small and the local folks started running out of places to bury people. So they would dig up coffins and would take the bones to a bone-house, and reuse the grave. When reopening these coffins, 1 out of 25 coffins were found to have scratch marks on the inside and they realized they had been burying people alive. So they would tie a string on the wrist of the corpse, lead it through the coffin and up through the ground and tie it to a bell. Someone would have to sit out in the graveyard all night (the graveyard shift.) to listen for the bell; thus, someone could be, saved by the bell or was considered a dead ringer.

And that's the truth...Now, whoever said History was boring ! ! ! Educate someone. Share these facts with a friend.

JANUARY EMAIL CONTEST WINNERS

Congratulations to Lauren and Dennis Abbl for winning The Cameron Team January email contest. They won tickets to the NFL Experience.

"Hi Jeff,

I just wanted to thank you so much for holding your monthly e-mail contest.We always enter, but this month, we were the lucky winners of passes to theNFL Experience and what a great time we had!! My husband and son were infootball heaven and I had lots of fun too! It was a wonderful family day!Here are a couple of fun photos from the event. I think Dennis is stillbreathing hard from the 40 yard dash! Thanks again Jeff and I'm lookingforward to February's contest!!!

Warmest regards,

Lauren Abbl"

Super SUPER BOWL

As many of you know, we were fortunate enough to have a connection to a pair of SUPER BOWL tickets at reasonable prices. We are very thankful to John and Lori for their SUPER BOWL seats! Lisa and I had a blast.


Westgate was cool! They had all kinds of parties and a band playing prior to kick off. It was a great setting for this event. If I didn't have tickets to the game, I would have gone and watched there at Westgate.

Below are a few pictures from the day:


Lisa and I before the game at Westgate. Yes, I wore my colors. There were plenty of Cardinals jerseys outside, but I didn't see any inside the game.


The rock band "Metal Head" performs before the game at Westgate.




Westgate was a great party atmosphere.




Giant Vince Lombardi Trophy outside of The University of Phoenix Stadium.

Lisa as we got close to entering the stadium.

Can she look any HAPPIER! She was very excited that we found Howie Long and watched him do the pregame.


Lisa at our seats. The seats were almost the same as my Cardinal seats, except caddy corner.

Lisa and I before the game.

SUPER BOWL BRINGS BUSINESS CONNECTIONS TO THE VALUE

I read this article today in the republic. It is a perfect example of how building the Arizona Cardinals a football stadium, not only brought us the Super Bowl, but brings oportunity for more jobs and business. Today the world will be watching the valley and many will be lured to bring their businesses here and / or do business here from the exposure. Thus creating more jobs and usually bringing better paying jobs that help disversify our economy. It was a great step in creating the future of Arizona!

Of course, the gentlemen from Dubai will be at the Super Bowl today.

Dubai partnership sought
Phoenix wants to start business connections
Casey NewtonThe Arizona RepublicFeb. 3, 2008 12:00 AM
Phoenix is taking some key first steps to establishing a long-term partnership with the Middle Eastern port of Dubai, hoping ties to the wealthy emirate will result in more jobs for the Valley.The Greater Phoenix Economic Council is hosting a delegation of government and business leaders from Dubai this weekend. The delegation includes Mohammed Bin Ali Alabbar, chairman of real-estate giant Emaar Properties, and Richard Rodriguez, who oversees Emaar's developments in the United Arab Emirates.
Read the entire article at: http://www.azcentral.com/community/phoenix/articles/0203dubai0203.html

VALLEY PENDING HOME SALES JUMP TO 5 MONTH HIGH

Continued signs of strength for the Phoenix real estate market are shown in the Pending home sales. Pending homes sales in the metro Phoenix area are now registering a 5 month high on the Multiple Listing Service, MLS. With the increase in Pending home sales, results a drop in months of inventory based on Pending homes. Sales have increased each week as we have moved into the new year and are moving towards more normal levels. As demand increases, supply decreases. Or in our case the growth of supply decreases. You can see on the chart the down turn months of supply has taken based on the recent growth in Pending sales. This Chart goes back to 2005, when it was a seller's market.

Reviewing 2007, the chart shows how the market began to recover from the real estate slow down of 2006. In the first couple of months of 2007 Pending home sales jumped. Then "sub prime I" happened in march of 2007. The market turned abruptly and continued on a step path to a buyer's market. Since the beginning of this year the months of supply has peaked and is moving lower. Continued growth in sales along with a decrease in supply will continue to move our market to a more balanced state.

NEW SALES NUMBERS ARE OUT, LOOKING GOOD

I track the market here in the Phoenix Metro area on a weekly basis since January 2005. I wish I had been looking at these trends prior to that time. Available homes for sale dropped by 350 over night. That is due to the listings for homes for sale expiring. Many of them will re list over the next week or so. What I see that is very encouraging is homes sales increasing. DEMAND is returning to the market. Last week, ending Monday at 3 pm, I recorded 863 Single Family Home, SFH, sales for the week. That was a 7.7% increase over the previous week and that week was up 18% over the week before. Even better, 863 SFH sales last was week was the highest week I have recorded since the week of June 18, 2007, when I recorded 893 sales.

In 2003, we averaged 1,257 sales per week all year. But in the peak months, March thru August, we averaged 1,405 sales per week. I think a return to the sales levels of 2003 is our goal. I look forward to hitting 1,000 sales per week and then moving on and hitting that average of 1,257. It will be a wonderful sign to go over 1,405 sales per week. The next 6 months are imperative to our market. We need lower interest rates, lower prices, more financial options to return(liquidity) and consumer confidence. Those factors will bring our market back into a supply and demand balance, thus stop the decline of property values. I do believe it will be years before we see price appreciation in the outlying areas like Surprise, Anthem and Maricopa. But buyers purchasing in those areas bought to get more house for the money, not to increase equity.

JOBS DROP FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2003

The consumer, due to strong job growth, has kept us from recession. That trump card may have been played out at this time. This was the first job loss for the country in nearly 5 years. The biggest declines were seen in manufacturing, losing 28,000 jobs, and construction, losing 27,000 jobs. Construction has now lost over a 1/4 million jobs since the peak in 2006.

I read this as positive for our future. We need lower interest rates to move the housing market into recovery. If the economy would have been weaker last year, lower interest rates may have pushed off "sub prime II" in August. The strong economy had sent interest rates higher in May of 2007, which pushed home sales down. As home sales declined more homes went into foreclosure. With the increase in foreclosures came "sub prime II," it hit the market like a bomb going off! "Sub prime II" made everything worse. When that bomb went off, most financing options for buyers disappeared. Buyers could not close on homes. As a matter of fact, a home we are working on selling as a "short sale"; was under contract at that time, docs signed and ready to close the day of "sub prime II". The bomb went off, the lender closed shop and the home went back on the market.

Hopefully we don't fall into a major recession, but one that keeps interest rates low long enough to bring DEMAND back in balance with the market. Our economy cannot move forward for the long term until this housing issue is fixed!

U.S. Jobs Fell Unexpectedly By 17,000 During January
Topics:Interest Rates Inflation Employment Federal Reserve Economy (Global) Economy (U.S.)
By Reuters 01 Feb 2008 08:35 AM ET

U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 17,000 non-farm jobs in January, the first time in nearly4-1/2 years that U.S. payrolls shrank as fading construction and manufacturing sectors reflected the economy's waning momentum.
The Labor Department report on Friday came in much weaker than anticipated by analysts surveyed by Reuters, who had forecast 80,000 jobs would be added last month. The department revised December's new-job total up to 82,000 from 18,000 but the hiring trend clearly was fading as 2007 ended.
The last time that jobs were cut was in August 2003 when 42,000 were lost.
Read the full story: http://www.cnbc.com/id/22948805