JOB LOSS SLOWS ACROSS AMERICA

The job loss slowed in April as the market begins its recovery. Jobs are always a lagging indicator. I believe we will be in recovery by the 4th quarter of this year. As the sales of homes continue to improve, this will add jobs. More lenders, more title reps and more Realtors. As these new home owners move in to these REO, foreclosure, homes; they will need to fix them up. They will buy paint, carpet, appliances, plants and furniture; or better yet hire contractors to do much of the work. This will continue to add to the job market and bail us out of this mess.
Just my opinion...Jeff Cameron
Article from CNBC.com below
Layoffs Slow To 539,000 in April; Jobless Rate Rises
Microsoft CorpBy: AP and CNBC 08 May 2009 09:37 AM The pace of layoffs slowed in April when employers cut 539,000 jobs, the fewest in six months.
But the unemployment rate climbed to 8.9 percent, the highest since late 1983, as many businesses remain wary of hiring given all the economic uncertainties.
The Labor Department tally released Friday wasn't nearly as deep as the 620,000 job cuts that economists were expecting, and was helped by a burst of government hiring.
The rise in the unemployment rate from 8.5 percent in March matched economists' forecasts.
See the rest of the story
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30638052

HUGE JOB LOSSES FOR NOVEMBER, NOT THE END OF THE WORLD

Don't think I am crazy, but I think we are beginning the path to recovery. I was shocked that we gained jobs a year ago. With the real estate market falling apart, how could we be gaining jobs in the first half of 2008? Realtors, lenders, title agents, home inspectors, repair people, appraisers, builders, construction workers, furniture sales people and on were out of jobs a year ago. Why were we still gaining. Most of all, the real estate flippers and others making tons of money in the hey day, stopped buying all the goodies! The reality is the jobs market is a lagging indicator. I believe things are getting better. I don't know when everything will turn around, but things will be getting better. If you are one that is or has lost your job recently, it is going to be tough. I have sympathy for you and am not meaning to disrespect your position. Everything is cyclical and some get hurt in the beginning and others at the end of a cycle.
I know one positive note, houses are selling at a much greater pace than a year ago! That is at their adjusted values, buyers are now seeing value again. A rental property with an actual down payment, will cash flow today!
Just my opinion...Jeff Cameron


Employers cut 533,000 jobs from nonfarm payrolls in November, the sharpest job loss since December 1974 and much more than the 340,000 decline economists had expected. The unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent from 6.5 percent.
The prior two months' job losses were revise to show that a total of 199,000 more jobs were lost than previously thought in September and October. That means 1.25 million jobs were lost in the last three months alone, bringing the total to nearly 2 million since the start of the year.
But unemployment is a lagging indicator, telling investors what has been more than what lies ahead.
read the rest of the article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/28067738

AUGUST JOBS DOWN, UNEMPLOYMENT UP TO 6.1%

More job losses through the summer as the economy sags. With the high level of inventory of unsold homes, this is not a dire situation. This will keep interest rates low as we continue to work through the housing inventory and move into recovery. Once inventory levels come further down and we see supply and demand in better balance, then building will pick up. When building picks up we will see more jobs. The answer right now is more buyers for homes, lower inventory, build more and create jobs.

Jobless Rate Zooms to 6.1%, Hits Five-Year High
By AP 05 Sep 2008 08:50 AM ET
The nation's unemployment rate zoomed to a five-year high of 6.1 percent in August as employers slashed 84,000 jobs, dramatic proof of the mounting damage a deeply troubled economy is inflicting on workers and businesses alike.
The Labor Department's report, released Friday, showed the increasing toll the housing, credit and financial crises are taking on the economy.
The report was sure to rattle Wall Street again. All the major stock indexes tumbled into bear territory Thursday as investors lost hope of a late-year recovery. With the employment situation deteriorating, there's growing worry that consumers will recoil, throwing the economy into a tailspin later this year or early next year.
Read the story: http://www.cnbc.com/id/26558467

PAYROLLS SHRINK BY 60,000, BUT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REMAINS AT 5.5%

Losing 60,000 jobs is a bummer, but it is better than losing 100,000 jobs. And the fact the unemployment rate remained unchanged is a plus. Jobs and the consumer have kept us from free falling, where they go from here is essential.


Labor Market Remains Weak as Payrolls Shrink

By Reuters 03 Jul 2008 09:39 AM ET

U.S. employers cut workers from their payrolls for the sixth straight month in June for the longest losing employment streak since 2002, government data on Thursday showed.
AP
A separate report showed new applications for jobless benefits hurdling to 404,000, suggesting further weakness ahead for employment.
Another survey reported service companies such as airlines and restaurants that make up the bulk of the economy are being pinched by soaring costs and weakening demand and have responded by slashing staff.
U.S. stock futures rallied on the news, while prices on U.S. government debt retreated as investors shifted their attention toward the equities market.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25509894

ARIZONA LOOSES 6,700 JOBS IN MAY, 4.4% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

We continue to shed jobs here in the valley of the sun. Job losses are spreading from the construction industry to the rest of the economy. However some areas show strength. The housing industry is primed for recovery as we slowly go through the excess inventory. Home construction should hit a bottom this year and begin to move up next year. The question is how bad does the recession get before housing turns fully?


Arizona Department of Commerce, Research Administration
Nonfarm Employment Down by 6,700
in May; Unemployment Rate at 4.4%
Arizona’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent in May, a one-half of one percentage point increase from 3.9 percent in April. The national rate increased from 5 percent to 5.5 percent during the same time period. The civilian labor force in the state increased and employment fell, according to local area unemployment statistics. Arizona’s economy lost 6,700 nonfarm jobs in May for an over-themonth percentage change of -0.3 percent. Based on the 10-year average, a small gain was expected during May (+0.1%). http://www.workforce.az.gov/admin/uploadedPublications/2711_PrJune08.pdf

MAY UNEMPLOYMENT REPORT, JUMPS TO 5.5% - LOSS OF 49,000 JOBS

Better than expected jobs report. Forecasts were for a loss of 60,000 jobs and the report shows a loss of 49,000. What we need to look at is any revisions. Those should be available soon.

The unemployment rate jumps to 5.5%. What is up there. Did a bunch of Americans get off the couch and decide to look for jobs last month?

The revisions are:

March from 81,000 to 88,000 job losses.
April from 20,000 to 28,000 job losses.

On top of the 49,000 job losses we had another 15,000, therefore there are 64,000 less jobs than we thought yesterday.

Let's see how the market reacts??????????????

read the jobs report here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/25000080

ARIZONA'S SEASONLLY ADJUSTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REMAINED AT 4%

Arizona gained 9,500 non-farm Jobs in March, for the month over month gain. However, when we look at the year over year gain, it was negative. There is a 7,500 job loss when comparing March 2007 to March 2008.
Construction pared 800 jobs in March and is now down 24,800 from its peak.
The unemployment rate remained at 4%. In March of 2007, the unemployment rate was 3.7%. Our unemployment rate is still much lower than the country as a whole. The US unemployment rate is 5.1%.
read the rest of the jobs report: http://www.workforce.az.gov/admin/uploadedPublications/2692_PrApr08.pdf

MARCH JOB LOSSES TOTAL 80,000

The nation's jobs report is out and it is a negative number. But let's face it. We know we are in a recession. Therefore, losses of 80,000 jobs is not huge. Plus they restated the numbers for the first 2 months of this year and there were 33,000 less jobs lost earlier this year. Therefore, the net loss is 47,000 jobs. Don't get me wrong, if those jobs are your job, this is serious. But overall, the number was less than expected. Maybe this recession will be milder than expected. Only time will tell.

Economy Loses 80,000 Jobs, Worse Than Expected

By Reuters 04 Apr 2008 08:32 AM ET

US employers cut payrolls for a third month in a row in March, slashing 80,000 jobs for the biggest monthly job decline in five years as the economy headed into a downturn, government data on Friday showed.
CNBC.com
The Labor Department revised the first two months of the year's job losses to a total of 52,000 from a previous estimate of 85,000. The March unemployment rate jumped to 5.1 percent from 4.8 percent, the highest since a matching rate in September 2005.
The March job report was more bleak than expected.
Economists polled ahead of the report forecast a decline of 60,000 in non-farm payrolls and a rise in the unemployment rate to 5 percent.
Read the rest of the story: http://www.cnbc.com/id/23952640

ARIZONA GAINS 25,300 JOBS IN FEBRUARY

Sounds great to gain 25,300 jobs last month, but that is a seasonal number. The big number is the year over year number which is up only 0.1%. We are only up 3,900 jobs from February of 2007. The unemployment rate is at 4%, up from 3.8% last year, but down from 4.3% last month.

Arizona’s economy gained a less than seasonally expected 25,300 non farm jobs in February to reach a level of 2,672,400 jobs. Over-the-year, non farm payroll employment increased by 3,900 in February, with seven of 11 major industries reporting employment gains. Over-the year job growth in February was 0.1 percent, compared to the 10-year average of 3.2 percent. All industries except one were below their 10-year monthly average gains. Two industries lost jobs, while the same number showed no change. Jobs declined in goods-producing industries (-1,900) and increased in service-providing industries (+27,200). Arizona’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4 percent in February, down from 4.3 percent in January, as people dropped out of the labor force and the total civilian labor force declined by 11,700. At the
national level the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.8 percent.
Read the entire article here: http://www.workforce.az.gov/admin/uploadedPublications/2685_PrMar08.pdf

JOBS REPORT IS OUT, DOWN 63,000 FOR FEBRUARY

Not the news I wanted to start the day with, but it is what is. The jobs report was released by the labor department and not only did we loose 63,000 jobs in February but there were downward revisions for the last couple of months. Losses in January were increased from 17,000 to 22,000 and December job gains were cut in half from 82,000 to 41,000. As you can see, the report is very inconsistent. However, this report states there are 109,000 less jobs than we thought were there yesterday.

One of the strengths to our economy is the low unemployment. We are still in a good position, the question is "where are we headed?"

The sinking dollar is also helping our economy. It is making our goods more competitive with the rest of the world. Not the way I prefer to increase our competitiveness, but it still helps the economy.

Read the full report: http://www.cnbc.com/id/23518353

JOBS DROP FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2003

The consumer, due to strong job growth, has kept us from recession. That trump card may have been played out at this time. This was the first job loss for the country in nearly 5 years. The biggest declines were seen in manufacturing, losing 28,000 jobs, and construction, losing 27,000 jobs. Construction has now lost over a 1/4 million jobs since the peak in 2006.

I read this as positive for our future. We need lower interest rates to move the housing market into recovery. If the economy would have been weaker last year, lower interest rates may have pushed off "sub prime II" in August. The strong economy had sent interest rates higher in May of 2007, which pushed home sales down. As home sales declined more homes went into foreclosure. With the increase in foreclosures came "sub prime II," it hit the market like a bomb going off! "Sub prime II" made everything worse. When that bomb went off, most financing options for buyers disappeared. Buyers could not close on homes. As a matter of fact, a home we are working on selling as a "short sale"; was under contract at that time, docs signed and ready to close the day of "sub prime II". The bomb went off, the lender closed shop and the home went back on the market.

Hopefully we don't fall into a major recession, but one that keeps interest rates low long enough to bring DEMAND back in balance with the market. Our economy cannot move forward for the long term until this housing issue is fixed!

U.S. Jobs Fell Unexpectedly By 17,000 During January
Topics:Interest Rates Inflation Employment Federal Reserve Economy (Global) Economy (U.S.)
By Reuters 01 Feb 2008 08:35 AM ET

U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 17,000 non-farm jobs in January, the first time in nearly4-1/2 years that U.S. payrolls shrank as fading construction and manufacturing sectors reflected the economy's waning momentum.
The Labor Department report on Friday came in much weaker than anticipated by analysts surveyed by Reuters, who had forecast 80,000 jobs would be added last month. The department revised December's new-job total up to 82,000 from 18,000 but the hiring trend clearly was fading as 2007 ended.
The last time that jobs were cut was in August 2003 when 42,000 were lost.
Read the full story: http://www.cnbc.com/id/22948805