JOB LOSS SLOWS ACROSS AMERICA

The job loss slowed in April as the market begins its recovery. Jobs are always a lagging indicator. I believe we will be in recovery by the 4th quarter of this year. As the sales of homes continue to improve, this will add jobs. More lenders, more title reps and more Realtors. As these new home owners move in to these REO, foreclosure, homes; they will need to fix them up. They will buy paint, carpet, appliances, plants and furniture; or better yet hire contractors to do much of the work. This will continue to add to the job market and bail us out of this mess.
Just my opinion...Jeff Cameron
Article from CNBC.com below
Layoffs Slow To 539,000 in April; Jobless Rate Rises
Microsoft CorpBy: AP and CNBC 08 May 2009 09:37 AM The pace of layoffs slowed in April when employers cut 539,000 jobs, the fewest in six months.
But the unemployment rate climbed to 8.9 percent, the highest since late 1983, as many businesses remain wary of hiring given all the economic uncertainties.
The Labor Department tally released Friday wasn't nearly as deep as the 620,000 job cuts that economists were expecting, and was helped by a burst of government hiring.
The rise in the unemployment rate from 8.5 percent in March matched economists' forecasts.
See the rest of the story
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30638052

2 More Houses Closed Today Thanks To The Cameron Team!!!

The Cameron Team closed two more houses today! We were the listing agents for Meadow and the buyers agents for Kathleen!! WOW What a crazy week its been dealing with all these escrows. These two great homes were also the rare regular listed homes and therefore we did not have to wait for the bank to approve the price! The Happy Home Owners are moving in as we speak!

Meadow~NOT A BANK OWNED HOME OR SHORT SALE. SAVE TIME AND MONEY WITH THIS HOME. No Hassle with the Bank, No waiting for approval, No needed Repairs. Home is in GREAT condition, well maintained, and completely turn-key. This 3 bedroom + loft can easily be converted to a 4 bedroom home. Backyard offers beautiful yard with pebbletech play pool, stucco and painted walls, covered patio and colorful flowering. Inside you will find faux wood floors, gas fireplace, wood blinds, custom painting and decorative lighting. The kitchen offers raised panel cabinets, microwave and gas cooking. Home is convenient to 101 & 51 Freeways plus Desert Ridge, PV Mall, Kierland and a quick jump to downtown.


Kathleen~ North Ranch! Well maintained single level home situated on nearly 1/3 acre corner lot w/desert landscaping. N/S exposure. Vaulted ceilings in liv./din. room, fam. room, kitchen & master bdrm. French doors from eat-in kitchen to cov'd patio & lovely south facing backyard w/pool. 4bdrms 2 baths w/master split. Spacious master bdrm. w/walk-in closet & arcadia doors to pool. Master bath features his & her sinks, glass block & garden tub. Light/bright kitchen w/skylight and walk-in pantry. Kitchen opens onto family room w/wood burning fireplace. Water softener & R/O system. Add'l storage in 3 car garage. A great home in a great location. Near Kierland Commons, Scottsdale 101, Desert Ridge, Fashion Square, restaurants, movies, groceries, golf & much more.

Looking for Good News for the AZ Real Estate Market?

Hello,

it is May 1st and the April numbers are out! As I have been reporting over the past weeks, sales have taken off! Below you can view several charts detailing and affirming this action in our real estate Market. Let's look at a couple of facts, shall we???? Single Family Home closings in April are up 84.9% compared to last year, how is that for a good stat? Why do news reporters not report good news? Sales rocketed in 2005, when comparing April 2009 closings to April 2005, we are only 200 lower this year. We beat 2004 April closings this year. I suspect we will be beating the 2005 numbers real quick.





The chart above shows single family home closings for the first 4 months of each of the last 9 years. 2009 is on FIRE!






Here is another look at single family home closings over the past 9 years.






This chart shows months of Inventory of available homes compared to Pending homes. You can see that we have returned to levels of 2005.





This chart shows the actual number of single family homes on the market. It goes back 3 years and we are now at lower levels than those of May 1, 2006!



Is it market turn around? What is happening in the market? Are we at a bottom? These are difficult questions to be precise with and usually can only answer with definitiveness several months after they have occurred. But let's use some common sense here, THE MARKET IS TURNING, BOTTOMING RECOVERING!

Another GREAT BANK-OWNED Home Listed By The Cameron Team

This 3 bed 2 bath home is clean and well maintained. Home has Living and Family Room. Kitchen is bright and open with gas stove, island, pantry, and breakfast area. Carpet in all the right places, wood blind, ceiling fans with lights. Private Backyard with covered patio, and cabinets in garage. Your buyer will LOVE this home.

March 25th Market update for Phoenix metro!

www.tokbox.com

The Cameron Team Just Listed A Great Home On Tatum & Bell!!

Beautiful home well cared for located on a hard to find cul de sac lot! Priced only $95K less then the same floor plan a few doors down. Realistic seller priced for today's market. Nice yard with several fruit trees, full length covered patio and easy to care for desert landscaping. Recently the owner has replaced the water heater, quiet garage door opener and faucets in both bathrooms/kitchen have been replaced.

NEW Weekly Video Update From Jeff Cameron!

We are getting a lot of calls from people asking about the real estate market. Since the news is unable to report good news, I will. This is the first of weekly market reports for the Metro Phoenix area. Please don't hesitate to send me questions or call.

www.tokbox.com

McDowell Mountain Ranch Property for SALE OR RENT Just Reduced In Price!

Location, Condition, Upgrades & Amenities ~ This House Has It All And Is Totally Turn Key! Over 1/4 Acre Cul-De-Sac Lot. Inside: Split Master, 3 Bdrm + Den w/ Blt-Ins. Gourmet Kitchen Offers Double Ovens, Granite Counters, Raised Panel Maple Cabinets, Blt-In Micro & R/O Water. Great Kitchen Overlooks Family Room Offering Blt In Ent. System, Gas Fireplace & Surround Sound. Resort Like Yard Offers Both A Grassy Play Area And Fenced Pebble Tech Play Pool & Spa. Yard Enhanced w/Built In BBQ, Automatic Awning & Waterfall. Plus Use The Pool All Year With Gas Or Solar Heater. Don't Forget The 3 Car Garage w/ Epoxy Floor & Cabinets. Plantation Shutters, 18' Stone Like Tile, Classy Closets and Soft Water System!

Wonderful Home with HUGE MAN SIZED GARAGE just reduced in price!! Get it before it goes!

Wow, what a beautiful home on 1+ acre lot in New River with mountain views in every direction! Fantastic Great room floor plan! This home is full of upgrades from chiseled edge granite countertops, huge breakfast bar, 20' faux travertine, custom knotty alder cabinets and 8' interior doors, plantation shutters throughout, stainless appliances, ceiling fans in every room, 10' ceilings, jacuzzi tub and large walk in closet in the master plus top notch construction quality with extra insulation t/o. Including 14 & 16 seer A/C, Low E windows, roof has 90 lb rolled underlay and the entire home is over engineered. But WAIT, Looking for RV garage, Shop, Home office, or even Guest house? The owner built a fantastic 58 x 40 Super Garage. It has a 14 ft insulated door and was built with Full Sheer.

What a STEAL!!! This 2 Million Dollar home listed for WAY less!!

Beautiful private retreat located inEl Chorro Estates in the heart of Paradise Valley. Privately gated w/circular drive this home sits on 1.45 acres of land! With 5 bedrooms, 5.5 baths, bonus room & huge formal living room, this home is very spacious. You will find all the expected finishing touches: granite slab, 18'' travertine floors, coffered ceilings, custom cabinetry and built-in fridge w/wood panels. Huge family room with open kitchen, wet bar & built-in entertainment center, of course, there is surround sound & speakers throughout the home. Gourmet kitchen offers gas cooking, vegetable sink, big island and breakfast bar! Outside there is room to roam. Beautiful pebble tech pool & spa are heated for year round use. Lush tropical landscape, in the shadow of Camelback Mountain.

Just REDUCED In Price!! Great Home in Laveen!

Wow, what a beautiful home for a great price! Be patient and steal this home from the bank! This home is located in gated community w/one of the largest lots available, has 4 bedrooms and 3 baths with 4 bedroom having full bath and walk-in closet perfect for guest or in-laws, 16' tile in all main areas w/carpet in bedrooms, staggered kitchen cabinets w/crown molding, fireplace w/entertainment niche in living room, ceiling fans, covered patio out back and so much more! All lighting in dining, kitchen and hall have been upgraded. Your buyers will love this home!

Great Home In Surprise Just Reduced In Price For A Quick Sale!

Beautiful newer home at a great short sale price! This home is located on one of the largest lots in the subdivision. Upgrades galore, including: 9,150 sf lot, Huge family room, Maple Cabinets, Stainless Steel appliances, 18 inch tile floors and upgraded carpeting. Fully landscaped front and back yard. Master bedroom with double door entry, walk in closet, separate tub and shower, and dual sinks! 3 Car Garage. Seller has never occupied this home! BRING AN OFFER and for just a little patience you will get your dream home for a steal!

Bank REDUCED Price on this Wonderful Home listed by The Cameron Team!

What a great lot location in Anthem! Very private, corner lot with lots of potential. Awesome 1,638 sq.ft.floorplan with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths plus front seperate formal living/dining and family room. Very open and spacious floorplan! This home and the community offer so much for such a little purchase price! We get RESPONSES in 48-72 hour! **Buyer agrees to review & sign all bank addendums. All contracts/offers are subject to IndyMac Banks approval & any offers or counter offers by IndyMac Bank are not binding unless the entire agreement is ratified by all parties. Buyer must be approved by IndyMac lender by may use lender of choice. Any cash offers, must include proof of funds & buyer agrees to pay $75 doc fee at closing. No SPDS or CLUE

Bank Owned Home Just Reduced In Price...You have to see this one!

Bank has priced this home to sell. 4 bdrm, 3.5 bath & Granite counters priced under $200K. Home needs some TLC and appliances. However, Bank has just installed brand new carpet 1/16/09! All offers are subject to IndyMac Banks Senior management approval and any offers or counter offers by Indymac bank are not binding unless the entire agreement is ratified by all parties. Buyer to pay $75 Doc Fee at COE. Please allow 3 business days for acceptance. Sellers addendum available on line in the document section. Please put 'No SPDS and No Insurance letter' on Page 7 of the contract. Buyer must be approved by preferred lender, Prospect Mortgage Staci McCarville 480-778-2614

PRICE REDUCED On A Great 1+Acre Lot In North Scottsdale!!!

Beautiful level lot in the heart of Scottsdale. Only $ 190,000!! Priced to sell below what I paid for it in January. Change of plans forces this great buy. Over an Acre and in Scottsdale with Mountain views, you will love this lot. Some engineering work done. Call for details. Seller is a licensed Realtor.***************SHORT SALE************* GREAT OPPORTUNITY! Different kind of Short Sale, we are carrying a note for the shortage. Should be quicker

Bank Owned Home Reduced In Price!! WHAT A DEAL!!

$181,500!!!!

Bank has priced this home to sell. 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths and Granite slab counters priced under $200K. Opportunity waits for the smart buyer right here! Home needs some TLC and appliances. All offers are subject to IndyMac Banks Senior management approval and any offers or counter offers by Indymac bank are not binding unless the entire agreement is ratified by all parties. Buyer to pay $75 Doc Fee at COE. Please allow 3 business days for acceptance. Sellers addendum available on line in the document section. Please put 'No SPDS and No Insurance letter' on Page 7 of the contract. Buyer must be approved by preferred lender, Prospect Mortgage Staci McCarville 480-778-2614

BFH, Brown Family Homes goes out of business

This is sad to see. BFH is a long standing good builder here in the valley. I have sold dozens of their homes over the years. I have always been impressed by their quality and integrity. Another good company down due to how other companies, wall street, run their business. I don't know the whole story...
Just my opinion
Jeff Cameron

Local builder goes out of business
Construction lender cut credit for Brown Family
by J. Craig Anderson - Oct. 28, 2008 12:00 AMThe Arizona Republic
Tempe-based home builder Brown Family Communities closed its doors Friday after more than three decades in the business.
Company founder Dave Brown said he was forced to cease operation and lay off all 60 employees because the company's construction lender, which he didn't want to name, was unwilling to extend additional credit to build new homes or finish homes under construction.
Brown said that means customers currently in the process of buying a Brown Family home would not be allowed to close the deal.
OAS_AD('ArticleFlex_1')
Instead, the bank will keep those homes as collateral. Brown said that he would refund every customer's deposit.

Read the rest of the story: http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2008/10/28/20081028biz-homebuilder1028.html?&wired

Governments Actions 9/28/08

I received this summary of the Government’s Actions to help the credit crisis from Jeff Rodvien. I wanted to share it with you. I hope this helps answer questions.
Jeff Cameron.

Summary of Trouble Asset Relief Program.

The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (the “Act”) provides the Treasury Secretary with the authority to restore liquidity and stability to the U.S. financial system and to ensure the economic well-being of Americans. As part of this authority, the Treasury Secretary is authorized to establish a trouble asset relief program (“TARP”) to purchase troubled assets from financial institutions under the terms of the Act.

I. Taxpayer Protection Provisions

• Funds Released in Tranches – TARP’s initial $250 billion will be immediately available. Presidential certification to Congress will be required for the next $100 billion. The remaining $350 billion may be made available after the President transmits a written report to Congress detailing the Treasury Secretary’s plan to exercise the remaining authority. Congress must vote to approve.

• Insurance of Trouble Assets – The Secretary must establish a program to guarantee troubled assets in amount not greater than 100% of the amount of the payment of principle and interest on the trouble assets. Premiums to be paid by the financial industry. The details of the program are left to the secretary’s discretion.

• Warrants – The Secretary may not purchase troubled assets unless it receives from the financial institution:

• For listed public companies – a warrant for voting, nonvoting stock or preferred stock. The secretary must agree not to exercise by someone who purchases from Treasury. The warrant must provide the government with reasonable participation in equity appreciation and provide additional protection against loss in sale of the assets. Exercise and type of upside in set by the secretary “in the interest of the taxpayers.”

• Anti-dilution provisions must be included.

• For non-listed companies A warrant for common or preferred stock or a senior debt instrument with a “reasonable interest rate premium.”

• No warrants required for purchases of less than $100M for the duration of the program.

• The final provisions give significantly more discretion to the Treasury.

• The substantial majority of the technical changes suggested by SIFMA and Davis Polk & Wardwell late this afternoon were accepted in the purposed legislation improving the effectiveness of the warrant provisions.

• Pricing and Auction Mechanisms. The Secretary is required to use market mechanisms for purchases wherever possible and to maximize the efficiency of taxpayer resource with auctions or reverse auctions. The mechanics of pricing are left to the discretion of the Secretary altogether the Treasury is required to publish program guidelines on this and other areas on an expenditure basis. The guidelines must be out within 2 business days of the first purchase or, at the latest, 45 days after enactment.

• Recoupment of Taxpayer Losses – Five years after the date of enactment, OMB will report to Congress on the TARP’s net gain loss. If the progress is running a shortfall, the President will be required to submit a legislative proposal to Congress that recoups for taxpayers the amount of the shortfall from the financial industry.

• Exchange Stabilization Fund Reimbursement – Treasury must reimburse the Exchange Stabilization Fund for any funds used for the temporary guaranty program for money market funds.

II. Limits on Executive Compensation

• Direst Purchases – For financial institutions that participate in direct purchases, the executive compensation limits include: prohibitions on senior executive officer compensation that encourages unnecessary risk-taking; claw-back of bonuses paid to senior executive officers based on statement of earnings that prove to be materially inaccurate; and a ban on golden parachutes paid while Treasury holds an equity or debt position in the financial institution.

• For direct purchases, the Secretary also retains significant discretion to impose heightened corporate governance requirements – though the standards are undefined.

• Auction Participants – The executive compensation limits are triggered by purchased assets in a aggregate amount exceeding $300 million in assets in subject to tax deduction limits for compensation limits above $500,000 paid to “covered” employees as well as disallowance for certain severance payments on which certain senior executives are subject to a non-deductible 20% excise tax. In addition the institution is also prohibited from providing, in any new employment contract, for a golden parachute in the event of involuntary termination, bankruptcy, insolvency, or receivership. Further guidance will be issued by Treasury.

III. Independent Oversight and Transparency

• Oversight Board – Composed of (1) chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. (2) Chairman of the SEC, (3) director of the Federal Home Finance Agency, (4) secretary of HUD, and (5) Treasury Secretary. The private sector appointees by Congress from prior draft have been dropped. The Board has authority to review the exercise of authority under the program; make recommendations; report any suspected fraud or malfeasance to the Inspector General; and ensure the politics implemented are consistent with protecting taxpayers and the economic interest of the U.S The possibility of the Board intervening directly to prohibit or limit the Secretary’s actions has been dropped and the oversight is more on policy level.

• Special Inspector General – New independent Inspector General to monitor the Treasury Secretary’s decisions. Inspectors Generals exist in most administrative agencies and usually perform an audit like function.

• Reports – The Secretary must make various reports to congress, including tranches reports and a regulatory modernization report.

• GAO Oversight and Audits – The legislation mandates a GAO presence at Treasury to overseas the program and conduct audits to ensure strong internal controls and prevent fraud, waste and abuse. It will also include a study to determine the extent to which leverage was a factor behind the current financial crisis.

• Transparency – The Legislative also require the online posting of a description, amount, and pricing of assets acquired under the Act within 2 business days of purchase, trade, or other disposition.

• Judicial Review – The standard for judicial review is limited to arbitrary, capricious, abuse of discretion or not in according with law. No injunctions permitted related to purchase of assets, insurance program, management and scale of foreclosure mitigation efforts. Any other injunctions must be considered on an expedited basis. No suits by any financial institution seller unless permitted in the contract with Treasury.

• Regulatory. Requires that the Treasury Secretary implement guidelines and regulations in multiple area including reports, pricing mechanisms and conflicts of interest.

IV. Home Foreclosure Mitigation

• Tax Relief for Certain Homeowners – Under current law, forgiven mortgage debt is not subject to tax through December 31, 2009, The bill extends this tax relief for three years through December 31, 2012.

• Assistance to Homeowners – Requires the FHA, Federal Reserve, and originated before March 14, 2008 and, after consultation with the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, any other financial assets that the Secretary determines is necessary for financial stability. For the broader financial assets top apply, Congress must be notified in writing.

V. Miscellaneous

• Definition of Troubled Assets – Includes all mortgage related assets originated before March 14, 2008 and, after constitution with the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, any other financial asset that the Secretary determines is for financial stability. For the broader financial assets to apply, Congress must be notified in writing.

• Definition of Financial Institution – It currently covers any institution, including, but not limited to, any bank, savings associations, credit union, security broker or dealer, or insurance company establish and regulate under the laws of the U.S. or any state and having significant operations in the U.S. This covers branches and agencies of foreign banks. It does not on its face cover affiliates of covered institutions, the “including but not limited” will give the Secretary the power to define covered institutions in rules and guidelines.

• Suspension of Mark-to-Market Accounting – Reaffirms SEC authority to suspend the application of mark-to-market accounting rules with respect to any company.

• Public Disclosure – For any financial institution that sells troubled assets, the Treasury Secretary determines whether the public disclosure with respect to derivatives, contingent liabilities and off-balance sheet transaction is adequate to the Secretary will make additional disclosure requirements to the relevant regulators which include the SEC, the OCC and the OTS.

• Community Bank Relief – Community banks that sell Fannie and Freddie preferred stock could treat the gains and losses as ordinary income instead of capital gains. As a result, any losses could be used to offset ordinary income for tax purposes.

Prior Draft Provisions That Were Dropped:

• Bankruptcy cram-down

• Program will not divert revenues to any of the housing funds

• Program will not make foreclosure properties available at a discount to state and local governments receiving emergency assistance

• The “say on pay” requirement is dropped

AN ENERGY PLAN COULD SOLVE OUR HOUSING ISSUES

The answer, in this writers opinion to many of our problems lies in energy. We are sending $60 billion of our wealth to the OPEC nations each month. A clear plan on energy could create new investment in our economy, new investment in research and development, new research in our universities and lower oil prices today. Those lower prices are like a tax break to the American public. Think of a person who spent $400 per month on gasoline 2 years ago, that today needs $700 to $800 to pay for the same gas. Business that are paying double. Corn and everything made from corn is more expensive. It can't happen over night, but a clear plan will drive speculators out of the oil market and could lower oil $40 to $60 per barrel. That is a $300 to $1,000 bonus to most American households on a monthly basis. Way better than a one time $600 or $1,500 check. If the US government would have pledged $200 billion, or what ever the cost was from the recent stimulus plan, into an energy plan; the American public would benefit and so would our economy.
Below is an article I enjoyed by Thomas Friedman.


9/11 and 4/11

'By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

new_york_times:http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/20/opinion/20friedman.html

By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Published: July 20, 2008
I am reliably told by a Bush administration official that there is an old saying in Texas that goes like this: “If all you ever do is all you’ve ever done, then all you’ll ever get is all you ever got.”

Could anyone possibly come up with a better description of President Bush’s energy policy? America is in the midst of its worst energy crisis in years and what is the big decision our Decider has decided? Drum roll, please: Our Decider decided to lift the executive orders banning drilling for oil and natural gas off the country’s shoreline — even though he knew this was a meaningless gesture because a Congressional moratorium on drilling passed in 1981 remains in force.
The economist Paul Romer once said to me that “a crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” President Bush is well on his way to being remembered as the leader who wasted not one but two crises: 9/11 and 4/11. The average price of gasoline in the U.S. last week, according to the Energy Information Administration, was $4.11.
After 9/11, Mr. Bush had the chance to summon the country to a great nation-building project focused on breaking our addiction to oil. Instead, he told us to go shopping. After gasoline prices hit $4.11 last week, he had the chance to summon the country to a great nation-building project focused on clean energy. Instead, he told us to go drilling.
Neither shopping nor drilling is the solution to our problems.
What doesn’t the Bush crowd get? It’s this: We don’t have a “gasoline price problem.” We have an addiction problem. We are addicted to dirty fossil fuels, and this addiction is driving a whole set of toxic trends that are harming our nation and world in many different ways. It is intensifying global warming, creating runaway global demand for oil and gas, weakening our currency by shifting huge amounts of dollars abroad to pay for oil imports, widening “energy poverty” across Africa, destroying plants and animals at record rates and fostering ever-stronger petro-dictatorships in Iran, Russia and Venezuela.
When a person is addicted to crack cocaine, his problem is not that the price of crack is going up. His problem is what that crack addiction is doing to his whole body. The cure is not cheaper crack, which would only perpetuate the addiction and all the problems it is creating. The cure is to break the addiction.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/20/opinion/20friedman.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Market Review and Forecast, May 2008

I am often asked, "what is going on in the market Jeff?"

First, we know the run up in home prices in early 2005, was caused by a severe imbalance in the supply and demand of homes. Supply was practically nothing and demand was at all time highs. Many buyers/investors got sub-prime loans. They had inadequate credit or income and no method of paying the payments should the market turn or their payments increase and were hoping to continue the valuation ride up.

The balance of supply and demand has been correcting since March of 2005. Supply jumped by 40% in October of 2005. I was shocked that home prices continued to increase into 2006. This market is so huge it moves like a big oil tanker being pushed by a dingy. Prices topped out in 2006 and started to slide. But inventory levels dropped from October of 2006 to Jan 1 of 2007, by 20%. We had 34,000 homes on the market at that time. Although the outlying areas took a beating, it appeared that the pricier parts of town, Scottsdale-PV-central corridor-Awatukee-Arcadia, and parts of Phoenix made it through holding their value.

As sales increased in February of 2007, the market was looking good but shaky. We reached a high of 1,268 home sales per week at that time. Then in March, I noticed an issue. Home sales were dropping and dropping fast, down to about 850 per week.

This was the "sub-prime" meltdown. We lost all the sub-prime mortgage products. This took a big bite out of demand. Home prices in Scottsdale started to weaken, but not bad. Then in August we had "Alt A" meltdown. Another mortgage product disappears and demand drops further. Hundreds of banks went out of business. The Fed came in and pumped 3/4 of a trillion dollars into the system to stop a full world financial disaster. It worked.

I have a professional real estate coach and he told me, "sell your home and rent. You will be able to buy it back for a 30% discount in a year or two," he said. I didn't want to and didn't follow his direction. He was from Florida, and at the time I thought they got hit worse than us, it won't get that bad in Scottsdale.

As we went into the off season and holidays, home prices in Scottsdale were down, but not bad. Sellers were holding their own on the prices. I was surprised. Then spring hit. It was like all the sellers from last fall said, "I thought it was the time of year, but now it is spring and no sale, OK lower the price." Prices were dropping like rocks.

This is when the short sales and foreclosures started hitting our area and hitting it hard. There is a boat load of foreclosures coming and they will continue to push our market lower. In September we foreclosed on 1,200 homes. That was the same as all of 2006. In January, 2,000 homes were foreclosed on and then in March, it was 2,500.

I listed a home in Arcadia in October. A similar home just closed escrow for $675,000. My seller insisted on starting at that number. We have now "chased the market" down. We kept lowering, but too slowly to catch the market. Finally the home sold for $500,000. I think we are going to look at that as a great number in a few months.

Back to the market. Inventory levels are coming down right now, but slowly. Sales are increasing. Last week was the highest since before the sub-prime meltdown. We have nearly 45,000 single family homes on the market and are selling around 1,250 per week. That is an 8.3 month supply of homes. Most of the new homes coming on the market are short sales and REO(bank-owned foreclosure homes). They are usually in poor condition. So, they will have to compete for the buyers with their price. The market is getting better, but prices are probably going to continue their slide until next summer or the following spring. There will be different areas of strength. We expect to see a "U" shaped bottom, versus a "V" shaped bottom.

I looked in North Scottsdale and compared the sales to see what the numbers show.

Here is what they show:

Time Period march to may 07 oct to end 07 first Q 2008 since Q1 08 to now
Time Period Ave Price Ave Square Ft Ave Price per SF

Q2 2007 ---$832,349 ---2,878 ---$289.21

Q4 2007 ---$840,026 ---2,981 ---$281.79

Q1 2008 ---$712,444 ---2,768 ---$257.39

Q2 2008 ---$591,123 ---2,625--- $225.19



Based on this area alone the market is clearly down over 20%.


I want you to imagine for a moment. Imagine you want to buy a house today. You have a ton of homes to choose from. The media is telling you not to buy today, because it will be cheaper in the near future. How are you going to act??????
Will you pay more than the last sale?
Will you care if the last sale was an REO?

What buyers are saying is: I want turn key, the best price and a good deal. They are fearful of buying now and the home dropping another 20%. I am telling my buyers to expect further declines. But I feel comfortable selling a home to a buyer with a 3 to 5 year time frame.

I expect home values to drop through the year, firm up next spring and stay flat through next year. In 2010, we should see some appreciation.

The big question is: What is today's value? (My answer is similar to that of the National Association of Realtors and was molded by the different coaching calls and my experience. I have been selling homes since 1995, over 1,000 home to date.)

Answer: Based on recent, last 60 days, sales and competition on the market, we price your home. Now we monitor showings, we should see 2 to 4 per week in this market. We are in season. If we don't get that activity, we missed the price. If we do get the activity, what are they saying? What is the feedback? If no one is interested nor saying good things about the home, like we want to buy it, then the activity is saying we are close. But we need to adjust the price again. We want to get in front of the market before it moves lower.

Call Jeff for a personalized Market Assessment for your situation. 480-502-7699