MY BUYER MISSED ON THE HOUSE THEY WANTED

This market it really wierd! There is so much inventory and prices have come down. Yet, still the same old difficulties...Finding the right house for a buyer. I believe this will be a year where the cream of the crop sells, and for reasonable prices. Yet, other homes don't sell at all. Some will sell at lower prices. Buyers today have a lot to choose from. They want the RIGHT house, not just a good deal. As a matter of fact, the Best home is not always selling for a DEAL.

This weekend I took a buyer out to look at a few homes. We found a resale they liked. We found a short sale they liked. And we found a SPEC home they liked. They actually liked the SPEC home best. We waited a few days and went back to the builder. To our dismay a buyer was sitting there with the OUR SPEC home file in his lap. They bought the home. We snoozed and we loosed!

My buyer later conveyed to me how that home was the home they really wanted. Yes, there are a ton of homes out there for sale. But the best homes keep on selling. If you see one you like, don't hesitat.

HOW DOES THE FED ACTION AFFECT LOANS

I received this email and thought is was a great perspective on the FED move and how it affects the market and rates. Rates have actually increased over the past week between .375% and .50%.

Historic Fed Move Cuts Both Ways for Borrowers

Hot on the heels of its surprise inter-session rate cut of 75 basis points last week, the Federal Reserve cut key interest rates again, the fifth straight cut since September 2007. In its statement last week, the Fed said it had decided to cut the federal funds rate "in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth." In other words, economic data suggests the US is on the brink of recession, and the Fed is acting accordingly.
Who benefits from this cut?If you have a loan that is directly tied to the Prime Rate, you will see an immediate benefit. Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) and variable rate charge cards are the types of loans that will have an interest rate reduction on their next statement.
What does this mean for long-term rates?Long-term mortgage rates could actually increase after yesterday's cut, based on historical performance and recent trends.
So if you're waiting for long-term rates to fall further, don't count on it. Your best chance to lock in the lowest rates since 2005 is now. Getting your application in process now will allow you to capture a great rate before it's too late.
What REALLY moves mortgage rates?Fixed-rate mortgage rates aren't directly tied to Fed interest rate moves. Instead, they tend to follow in the direction of other long-term government bond yields, such as the 10-year Treasury, which historically moves in accordance with the economic outlook and in advance of Fed actions. The performance of Mortgage Backed Securities, issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is what really determines long-term mortgage rates.
How does the economic stimulus package fit into the picture?The economic stimulus package from Congress and the White House could be a double-edged sword for borrowers. Combined with recent Fed actions, the package could create inflation and bring about higher long-term interest rates.
On the positive side, conforming loan limits are likely to be raised from the current $417,000 to upwards of $625,000. This means great potential savings for purchase and refinance candidates who live in 20 high-cost areas across the country.
What should you do next?If you're unsure how the rate-cut or the proposed legislation affects your mortgage, don't worry, you're not alone. There's no one-size-fits-all answer. Give us a call right away. We'll review your mortgage and see what, if anything, can or should be done to make the most of your individual financial goals and needs.

FED CUTS 1/2 POINT

Wow, after taking the back seat and letting this economy shift gears, good ol Ben is getting pretty aggressive. I did not expect to see the Fed lower another 1/2 point after giving up 3/4 of a point last week. The market got what the market wanted, the Fed doesn't usually do that. I am impressed. I hope that is not a sign of more difficulties ahead. This should really help in the mortgage market to free up liquidity and bring more products for buyers to purchase.

Read the Fed's Statement
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22917035

Fed Cuts Rates Half Point, to 3%, to Fight Recession
Topics:Interest Rates Inflation Ben Bernanke Employment Consumers Federal Reserve Federal Budget (U.S.) Economy (Global) Economy (U.S.)
By Reuters 30 Jan 2008 02:15 PM ET
The Federal Reserve cut a key U.S. interest rate by a half-percentage point Wednesday as part of an aggressive effort to halt a sharp slowdown in an economy hit by a housing slump and a credit crunch.
The Fed's action takes the bellwether federal funds rate target to 3 percent, the lowest since June 2005, and comes just eight days after it slashed rates by a bold three-quarters of a point. Wednesday's follow-up reduction was in line with the expectations of many financial market participants.
The cumulative 1.25 point reduction in the benchmark overnight rate in less than two weeks ranks among the most abrupt rate-cutting sprees in the modern history of the U.S. central bank.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22916491

VALLEY HOME SALES CONTINUE GROWING

For the week ended January 28th, 2008, we are up again. Sales of SFH homes valley wide came in at 863. That is a 7.7% jump from the previous week of 801 sales. It was the best week of sales since June 18, 2007. This is awesome. Things are improving. It is not the end of the buyer's market, just a return of demand to the market. I look forward to pushing through the 1,000 mark and would love to see 1,200-1,400 in sales per week. Those numbers would be more "normal" for what we expect in our market. This new week is already looking even stronger, but with FBR Open and SUPER BOWL, I don't expect that to last.

4th QUARTER GDP AT 0.6% GROWTH RATE

Preliminary number are showing the 4th quarter GDP grew at 0.6%. That is slower growth than the 1% forecast, however not negative. One thing to keep in mind is this is a preliminary number and they always revise the number as time goes on.

FED WATCH TODAY! The Fed is meeting as I write this. What will they do, time will tell!
Here is an article about the GDP news.

Economy Nearly Stalled in 4th Quarter
By JEANNINE AVERSA,
Associated Press
Posted: 2008-01-30 11:06:59
WASHINGTON (AP) - The economy nearly stalled in the fourth quarter with a growth rate of just 0.6 percent, capping its worst year since 2002. The Commerce Department's report on the gross domestic product, released Wednesday, showed an economy that had deteriorated considerably during the October-to-December quarter as worsening problems in the housing market and harder-to-get credit made individuals and businesses more cautious in their spending. Fears of a recession have grown, even as inflation remained elevated. For all of 2007, the economy grew by just 2.2 percent, the weakest performance in five years, when the country was struggling to recover from the 2001 recession. The housing collapse dealt the economy its biggest blow last year. Builders slashed spending on housing projects by 16.9 percent on an annualized basis, the most in 25 years. The report came as the Democratic-run Congress and the Bush administration continue to work on a program of tax rebates and business incentives aimed at stimulating the economy. http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/economy-nearly-stalled-in-4th-quarter/n20080130110609990021

Superbowl hits AZ

THE MARKET IS PICKING UP

Sales are up and activity is soaring! I have been out with 6 different buyers over the past 9 days. This is great, this is what January should be about. I call January "the gathering," because I am getting connected with my clients. We are getting a plan together for their purchase and beginning the process.
Our showings are picking up at our listings also. We received 2 offers over the weekend! I look forward to a wonderful 2008, that is 2 thousand and great!

REAL ESTATE AUCTIONS, WHAT A JOKE

In most situations an auction is the way the get the highest price for some thing of value. Usually, auctions are held for rare or hard to find items. It brings those niche buyers together and they bid against each other to drive the price to the highest market value. The "frenzy" effect also helps in pushing prices higher. After all, how do you sell a rare coin for the highest price? You advertise heavily that coin will be sold. You advertise a starting price way below its value. You advertise where research says those buyers will be reached. You bring those buyers together and they push the price over or to the highest possible market price. It works great...for coins and collectibles, but NOT for houses.

Most homes sold at auction are foreclosed homes. Investors come. It is their full time job. They know they must buy that home at around 65% of what they can sell it for in order to make a profit. Most of those investors are not making a lot of money. But they enjoy their job, have no boss and go with their own schedule.

I recently wrote about an upcoming auction. I was not there, but the agent reported back what she experienced. I will leave all names out, but it was as I expected. Here is my interpretation of what she reported.

First of all, let me remind you. The seller is to pay $3,000 to be in the auction. The home is listed at a price about 60-70% of the ORIGINAL list price of the home. Most of the sellers have had their homes on the market for a long time and dropped the price dramatically. So, their old price looks good. The buyer pays the bid price plus a 10% fee to the auction house. The auction house splits that 10% with the Realtors. The seller does not have to accept the highest bid.

The Realtor and her seller were very disappointed. They received NO bids for their property. Not many buyers showed up, the turn out was low. There was no excitement created and the bids were low. To get the price up to market price you need a vigorous excited group of bidders, bidding against each other. The only value the Realtor saw was, with the lack of bids, at least it might motivate sellers lower their prices.

She was unaware of any sale going through at the auction. However, the auction reported 80 out of 150 homes supposedly sold......"mostly done on their website." Remember the auction is advertised for 90 days, and if you don't sell, there is no charge to be in the next auction. So, homes just keep rolling over. It appeared as though many of these homes were just getting sold by the Realtors over time as they were still registered with the auction the auction took credit. Who really knows, but if they aren't selling at the auction, I really don't believe their website was doing it.

Again, if the homes don't sell they just stay on MLS with their current realtor. This agent said, it was not something she would recommend to most sellers but builders with lots of inventory may get lucky.

In my opinion, when times are tough people take advantage of you offering this quick fix. There are no quick fixes. There are only 2 reasons a house does not sell: it is priced wrong or it is marketed wrong! PERIOD!

SCOTTSDALE, CHANDLER AND TEMPE 3 TIME WINNERS of One of the 100 Best Communities for Young People

I received this email out of the Mayor Manros' office. The city of Scottsdale, along with Chandler and Tempe, has been named on of the top 100 Communities for young people in America. What a great honor. Below is the email and more about the designation:

Scottsdale honored as One of the 100 Best Communities for Young People
The city of Scottsdale receives many awards each year, but none more far reaching or more important than being named One of the Best Communities for Young People. This is what quality of life is all about and we are honored to have captured this title three years in a row. I was very honored to travel to Washington D.C. in 2006 to receive this award from General Colin Powell.The City of Scottsdale is grateful to share this award with an outstanding school district, an excellent health care system, many dedicated nonprofit organizations which serve our youth, and certainly the remarkable young people living here. Children come from many different backgrounds, but I believe that every child has a good chance of success if they have one place, one person, one environment which reinforces the message that they are worthwhile, they have something to offer, and that they are a good person.
America's Promise Alliance, the nation’s largest alliance dedicated to children and youth, announced that Scottsdale has been named a winner of its 2008 100 Best Communities for Young People. This program recognizes 100 outstanding communities across America chosen as the best places for young people to live and grow up. More than 300 communities in all 50 states applied for this honor.

Scottsdale was selected as one of the 100 Best for the third year in a row due to its commitment to ensuring that its young people have the fundamental resources to succeed. Collaboration is the cornerstone of our Scottsdale community. This collaboration includes the city’s Human Services Department, Parks and Recreation and Libraries, and our Police Department; the Scottsdale Unified School District; Scottsdale Healthcare; local nonprofit organizations, such, as the Boys and Girls Club of Scottsdale and Scottsdale Prevention Institute; the Interfaith Network of Scottsdale; and The Arizona Republic.
Scottsdale also spearheaded the Northeast Valley Coalition Against Methamphetamine to ensure the health and well-being of its youth. This collaboration includes five cities and two Native American nations. A Youth Awareness subcommittee is working to achieve a meth-free community. Approximately 30 youth are being recruited to plan anti-meth videos, a meth-awareness day, and a youth town hall dedicated to educating youth and families about issues of this deadly drug. In addition, the council majority passed the 2007/2008 fiscal budget which greatly expanded after school programs for youth and authorized new libraries and parks to serve our youth and people of all ages.
America's Promise Alliance is the national leader in forging a strong and effective partnership comprised of corporations, nonprofit organizations, foundations, policymakers, and advocacy and faith groups committed to ensuring that children receive the fundamental resources they need to lead successful, healthy and productive lives. Building on the legacy of our founder General Colin Powell, the Alliance believes that the success of our children is grounded in experiencing these Five Promises; caring adults; a safe place; a healthy start; an effective education, and opportunities to help others. For more information on America’s Promise Alliance visit: www.americaspromise.org.Keep Scottsdale moving forward in 2008
Click here to go to the Scottsdale for Manross 2008 Website



ARIZONA
Chandler, Arizona: Chandler created The Coalition for Chandler Youth in September 2006 to addresse youth issues on a community-wide basis. The Coalition has been instrumental in disseminating the Five Promises. Comprised of youth representatives, city governments, private businesses and a variety of other organizations, the “Day of Play” casts over 20 groups, requiring that every aspect of the event fall accurately under one of the Five Promises.
Scottsdale, Arizona: Scottsdale, recognized as a premier and posh tourist destination, is again, more importantly, recognized as a 100 Best for the second year in a row. This is due to Scottsdale’s commitment to promoting the Five Promises to help each child have the fundamental resources that he or she needs to be ready for the future. Collaboration is the cornerstone of the Scottsdale community. Their network includes the City of Scottsdale Human Services, Parks and Recreation, Libraries, Police Department, the Scottsdale Unified School District, Scottsdale Healthcare, Scottsdale LINKS, the Interfaith Network of Scottsdale and The Arizona Republic newspaper.
Tempe, Arizona: Tempe, Arizona, a long time host of the Fiesta Bowl, has a long history of pioneering youth policies, programs, services, and partnerships. The Tempe Mayor’s Youth Advisory Commission is believed to be the oldest such commission in the country. Each of the city’s three multigenerational facilities was designed for nonprofits to provide childcare, youth recreation, and other youth programs.

STIMULUS PACKAGE, RAISE CONVENTIONAL AND FHA LOAN LIMITS TO $729,750

Yes, the economic stimulus package includes raising conforming loan limits from $417,000 to $729,750. That is if it passes!
This is the best news I have heard and here is why. Today, when a loan amount is over $417,000, then you need to get a JUMBO loan. I know prices of homes are down, but come on. It use to be that JUMBO rates were .25% to .375% higher than conforming rates (conforming means not JUMBO or under $417,000, loans that are covered by FNMA and FHLM). However, today, because of the mortgage meltdown, we see a spread of 1% or more. This is a huge spread. When we look at today's rates at 5.375% for conforming then a JUMBO maybe 6.375%. That is an 18% jump in the interest rate a borrower pays. It causes people to qualify for a lower mortgage and thus have less affordability. Right now we need to increase affordability to increase demand and give the real estate market momentum. They are also looking at raising FHA limits to the same price. Again, I am all for that move. This is something the government can do that can actually help. Go get em...

Let me put this in perspective. A borrower with a $600,000 loan would pay interest of $3,188 per month at 6.375% interest rate, given a JUMBO loan. That same borrower paying the same amount of interest would be able to buy a home worth $111,628 more or have a loan amount of $711,628 and the same payment. This increases there purchase power. Or it can lower their monthly payment. If they stuck with the $600,000 loan, then their payment would go from $3,188 to $2,688. Saving them $500 per month. That will stimulate the economy!
It also helps people refinance while rates are low today. Because a borrower may not qualify today at a payment of $3,188, but does qualify at $2,688. Again, helping stimulate the economy and giving home owner security with their mortgage.

BREAKING NEWS
Federal stimulus package raises conforming loan limit
Thursday, January 24, 2008
BY WILLIAM JASONSTAFF REPORTERNORTH BAY, Jan. 24, 2008 – An economic stimulus package announced today in Washington includes mortgage reform that could serve as a major boost to the local real estate market. The package, agreed upon today by Democratic and Republican House leaders and the Bush Administration, would increase the size limits for government-sponsored loans to as much a $729,750.The proposal includes a one-year increase in the size of loans that can be purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – government-affiliated companies and the largest buyers of mortgages on the secondary market – from $417,000 to up to $729,750. It would also let the Federal Housing Administration guarantee loans of up to $729,750, up from $362,000.
read the rest of this article at this link
http://www.busjrnl.com/article/20080124/BUSINESSJOURNAL/304340210/1218

Testimonial, Another Happy Home Seller

We are so happy we finally went with The Cameron Team on the sale of our home. We unexpectedly found ourselves moving out of state and listed our home very quickly with another agent. After being in a "quickly dropping" market for 6 months with no sale, we finally decided to go with Jeff as our realtor. In less than 3 weeks we accepted a good offer and sold our home. We have been extremely pleased with the advice, service, and professionalism that we have experienced with The Cameron Team.

Jeff & Dawn Foutz
Close of escrow 11/30/07

Another Cameron Team Property Under Contact!!

The Cameron Team Listing 1t 10755 E. Redfield Road in Sienna Canyon at McDowell Mountain Ranch is now under contract!

Federal Reserve Cuts Fed Funds Rate by 3/4%

Ask and you shall receive! What ever. I was just blogging for a full 1% and found they dropped 3/4%. WOW! I was shocked. Shocked they dropped the interest rate, but even more shocked they dropped right at the same time I was blogging for the drop! You go Big BEN! Hopefully this will calm the markets.


Federal Reserve Cuts Key Interest Rate
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER,
AP
Posted: 2008-01-22 08:28:15
WASHINGTON (Jan. 22) - The Federal Reserve, confronted with a global stock sell-off fanned by increased fears of a recession, cut a key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on Tuesday. The Fed said it was cutting the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other on overnight loans, to 3.5 percent, down by three-fourths of a percentage point from 4.25 percent. The Fed action was the most dramatic signal it can send that it is concerned about a potential recession in the United States. It marked the biggest one-day move by the central bank in recent memory.

I THINK THE "DON" IS RIGHT!

Well I heard a news report last week that Donald Trump was urging the FED to lower a full 1%. I think he is RIGHT! Also, they can't wait until next week, they need to act NOW! TODAY! We need to calm the markets right now before this gets tooooooooo far out of hand.

METRO PHOENIX HOME SALES JUMP 18%, WEEK OVER WEEK

Good news in the real estate market. Sales of Single Family Homes, SFH, jumped 18% last week when compared to the previous week. Last week 801 homes sold by my tracking of the MLS system, compared to 678 the previous week (see graph at bottom). Now the previous week was the best week in 23 weeks, this past week is best in 6 Months. The best sales since July 23, 2007, that was pre sub prime II in August. The worst is not over. But, one of the actions we needed to see is increased buyer activity and that is happening. I would love to see that number move over 1,000. Next we need even lower interest rates. Actually interest rates are pretty low now. Buyers are motivated because sellers are lowering their prices and getting their home sold.



What is so weird is the stock markets Globally are falling apart now. What were they thinking in October when they set new records with the DOW JONES? Nothing has changed between then and now, except we are further from the bomb blast and things are beginning to get better. They really had me confused at that time. I thought why is the market soaring?

CONSTRUCTION DROPPED BY 14.2% IN DECEMBER

Many people are confused by why I would say construction dropping is good news. Also, new building permits dropped for the 7th month in a row. This is good news. You see builders should have slowed down building over 2 years ago. But they were greedy, driven by sales and not reality. They continued to sell to people that could not afford them and people that lied about being investors. Both of them should have been discovered by the lending process, when all financials are disclosed by the buyer.
Back to why this is good news. We can't change were we are. I wish we didn't have too much supply, but it is what it is. What we need to see happen now is two fold, increase demand and decrease supply. I have already written about increasing demand. Supply can be decreased in two ways, increase demand and stop adding to supply. When builders slow the building process, supply will decrease. I believe ALL builders should take the following actions:

1. Fully qualify all buyers before writing a contract.
2. Buyers with existing homes must sell and close on their existing home before construction starts. This use to be common.
3. Stop selling to investors for the short term. There are plenty of better deals for investors.
4. Review all homes under construction, make sure their buyers are able to close. If there are problems, solve the problem. Incentive on new home if they lower the price of their home they can't sell...
5. Discount their inventory homes, so they ALL sell.
6. Only start a home for existing fully approved buyers. No SPEC homes.

This will continue the slowing process of construction and new home applications. Once we hit a bottom, both of those numbers will rise. But we don't want them to rise because of ill-advised sales to unrealistic buyers. We don't want to see them rise until inventory levels drop dramatically.

Here is the valley, we have over 100,000 new residents every year, or more. We need housing for them. By cutting down the supply of new homes to the market, the pool of existing homes for sale will begin to shrink. Hello, this is very logical.

If you cooked enough food on Thanksgiving for twice the amount of guest you expect. You don't continue to put more turkeys in the oven. You have enough.

Home Construction Plunged in 200701/17/08 19:09 EST
PARK101, UTAS106
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - The steep slump in housing intensified at the end of last year, pushing home construction down by the biggest amount in nearly three decades. Analysts forecast more bad news in the months ahead with the big question remaining whether the housing slump will be severe enough to push the country into a recession. The Commerce Department reported Thursday that construction was started on 1.353 million new homes and apartments last year, down 24.8 percent from 2006. It was the second biggest annual decline on record, exceeded only by a 26 percent plunge in 1980.

http://money.aol.com/marketnews/bonds/article

JOBS JOBS JOBS, WE CREATED JOBS IN DECEMBER

That's right, that's right. OK, can YOU feel the lift I got to see we created over 10,000 jobs in Arizona in December. Let's put this in perspective, there were only 18,000 jobs created across the whole USA in December. More than half were here in AZ. Yes! Yes! Yes! This is good news.

Arizona’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.7 percent in December, up from 4.1 percent in November. Nationally, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 5 percent from 4.7 percent. Arizona’s economy experienced continued but slowing job growth by adding 10,100 nonfarm jobs in December to reach a record total of 2,760,600. The service-providing
industries added 12,300 jobs while the goods-producing cluster lost 2,200 jobs.

Read the whole jobs report at the following link:

http://www.workforce.az.gov/admin/uploadedPublications/2647_PrJan08.pdf

REAL ESTATE AUCTIONS - GOOD DEAL FOR BUYER OR GOOD DEAL FOR SELLER?

One of our buyers contacted us about a home she was interested in that was being auctioned off. I thought is must be a foreclosure. To buy at the foreclosure auction you need to pay in cash and go up against the foreclosure mafia, the regular group that bid up any new comers. We found it was not a foreclosure. It was one of these real estate auctions you here advertised.

AUCTION? Does that mean a great deal for the buyer? Why would a seller auction off their home? Who is the winner and who is the loser? Should we buy at auction?

Why do people auction items off? Whether it be real estate, art, coins etc... Auctions are the best way for sellers to get the most for their product. Property is advertised at under market pricing. Buyers are all brought together to bid at once. The bidding becomes a feeding frenzy and many items sell above their actual value. Well, I guess that becomes their value. So, not really above, but at the highest price possible. This does not always work for real estate. What happens if no one comes for your home. If that happens, either you have a unique home that needs a unique buyer, it was not advertised properly or do the real home buyers come to auctions. Not advertised properly would mean not reaching the right people and not expressing the discounted price as being a steal.

We did a little home work. Honestly, I don't know who is the winner in the auction process. Let me walk you through how it works.

An auction company advertises homes for sale at great discounts. In this case the seller pays an upfront fee of $3,000 to the auction company. The home is advertised at 70% of it's "original list price." For example, this home was originally priced at $600,000 and is being advertised at a "70% discount starting bid at $420,000." However, the home is only listed for $499,000 in the MLS today.

What was more interesting is that the seller does not have to accept the "starting bid" or any bid below his/her minimum. The seller gives the auction company a "minimum price" to accept. For example, this seller may say I will accept nothing less than $450,000. Not much higher than the minimum bid. However, the seller pays no commissions. The buyer pays a 10% fee on top of their winning bid. That 10% fee is split between the two Realtors and the auction company. So, if a buyer bid $450,000, the buyer would actually pay $495,000 for the property. Many times buyers don't understand there closing costs until their earnest money is non-refundable. I am not sure how the auction companies handle the explanation process.

In this case, I would say the buyer is the loser and the seller wins. The home is for sale for $499,000 today in the multiple listing service, MLS. The buyer should be able to purchase the home for $450,000 to $480,000. Even better, if the home has been on the market for a while. If no one is looking at now. It might be over priced. It may be that it should be listed at $430,000 and sell for $400,000 to $415,000. Either way the buyer is over paying in the auction process. The seller would be the winner, in this case.

But what if the seller does not get a bid at or above the minimum acceptable bid? Now the table turns. Because the seller paid $3,000 fee to be in the auction. If the home does not sell, the seller is the loser. Even though there may be buyers bidding on the home, if it does not sell the seller loses $3,000.

This is why the auction process does not work, in my opinion. Most "real home buyers" don't attend the auctions. Their costs are too high, so even if they think it is a good price the closing costs ruin it. Sellers are paying up front fees. Auctions are great for collectibles and fund raisers, but I don't believe they are the answer in this market.

People are "thinking outside the box," trying to get homes sold in a buyer's market. Our experience shows exactly what we are taught is true. Price the home right. Make it available to the buyers and easy to show. Present it in the proper condition. The home will sell. Every time all three are done the home sells. The difficulty today is accepting what is the "right price."

Valley Home Sales 2nd Highest in Past 23 Weeks

As you all know, I am a numbers guy. Last week was the first full week of the new year, no holiday. We registered 678 new Pending home sales. This is for Single Family Residences only, SFR. I have to continue tracking in the same pattern I started in January of 2005. Back to home sales, this past week was second to the week before Thanksgiving. That week was the highest I recorded since "sub-prime II" in August. That week I recorded 693 home sales. So we were not too far from being the best week since the August Bomb!

Although home sales are up, they are still way below what we would expect in a normal market. Right now our problem isn't necessarily supply, although there is an oversupply, it is demand. We need to get the sales back up to a more normal number. In January of 2006, we averaged 1,160 sales per week. In January of 2007, we averaged 977 sales per week and in January of 2003 we averaged 1,104 sales per week. I would like to see us break the 1,000 sales per week and then head into the 1,300 to 1,400 level through the selling season. These were the numbers in 2003. Once Demand picks up, unless there is a rush to the market, supply we begin to come down to normal levels. According to experts just under a 6 month supply of homes is more expected or "normal." Over 6 months is a buyer's market and under 6 months is a seller's market. With more normal sales of 1,257 per week, the average for the full year in 2003. Then a 6 month supply or 26 weeks times 1,257 equals 32,682 homes for sale. Today there are about 44,400 Single Family Homes for sale. Again this all based on demand increasing to the levels of 2003. I believe there is a lot of pent up demand, people renting waiting for the market to change.

I am seeing many buyers re-enter the market right now. I have a half dozen buyers that do not have a home to sell that I am working with right now. I am hearing the same message, "since seller's are getting more reasonable, we are ready to buy. But only when we see value. We don't want to over pay for a home today."

Homebuyer's Bill of Rights

Governor Napolitano, in her state of the state address, offered a 3 step plan to protect home buyers and help prevent any future credit crisis. Her plan includes a Homebuyer's Bill of Rights, Arizona Home Equity Theft Protection Act and lastly to license loan officers.
I think the 3rd item will be most helpful, license loan officers. Most of the loan officers that poorly advised their clients and sold mortgages to those loosing their home are out of business now. It was a temporary job for them. They came in made a big mess and moved on to another job. The barriers to entry were none. Therefore, anyone could sell a mortgage. With the HUGE commissions many were attracted. I don't believe they were evil or intentionally took advantage of their friends and family. I believe they were misguided by sales managers looking for big profits and did not know better. However, a home is usually the largest investment of ones life. Many choose those they know over a professional. Unfortunately, now they are loosing their homes. Most don't even know there was another, safer way. License those mortgage professionals TODAY! Better yet, make new Realtors go through an internship program. This is another step to help homeowners, because the Realtors have their share of responsibility for this mess too!
Homebuyers' Bill of Rights:
http://www.azre.gov/PUBLIC_INFO/Bill_Of_Rights/BILL_OF_RIGHTS.html
Governor's State of the State address:
http://www.azgovernor.gov/dms/upload/GS_2008%20SOS%20Address.pdf

The Cameron Team January Email contest

Happy New Year!
Happy Two Thousand and Great!

I am so looking forward to an Awesome New Year. We have the Phoenix Open, oops FBR Open, we have The Super Bowl, with a beautiful spring to follow (I plan on spending a lot of time outside with the kids in the cul-de-sac watching them play) and then a great summer. This will be an Awesome Year.

Thanks for responding to our monthly email contest! These actions really help our site with positioning with Google. So I thank you and my sellers thank you. The amount of leads for our listings from the Internet has grown dramatically over the past 2 years.

The Question:
What is the second home listed on The Cameron Team Website in McDowell Mountain Ranch? go to this link to find out http://www.thecameronteam.com/Phoenix_Scottsdale_Arizona_MMR_Dc_Ranch_listings/index.shtml

Be sure to email me the address, just 123 Elm street is fine, to be entered into the drawing for this month's prize.

The prize this month is 2 adult and 2 children passes to the NFL Experience at University of Phoenix Stadium. We have gone to a few NFL Experience events and had a lot of fun. Below is information about the event and a link for more information:

The NFL Experience built by The Home Depot

The National Football League will produce the 17th annual NFL EXPERIENCE BUILT BY THE HOME DEPOT adjacent to UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM. The NFL Experience is the most exciting continuous event surrounding Super Bowl XLII -- pro football's interactive theme park offering participatory games, displays, entertainment attractions, kids' clinics, free autograph sessions and the largest football card show ever. http://www.nfl.com/superbowl/nflexperience

FOR 2007, THE CAMERON TEAM WAS #2 FOR LISTINGS SOLD IN MCDOWELL MOUNTAIN RANCH

Yes, we have been working hard breaking into the McDowell Mountain Ranch area. We have lived there the past 7 years, but I never farmed my own neighborhood until the past couple of years. Last year we had the 2nd most listings sold and have our eyes on #1. Helene holds that spot, we are closing the gap. We have 2 listing currently and another in process. I find it much easier to sell homes in McDowell Mountain Ranch because I love living there!
If you know anyone thinking of buying or selling a home, please send them our way!

THE CAMERON TEAM IS #1 FOR LISTINGS SOLD IN THE FOOTHILLS NEIGHBORHOOD FOR THE 12 YEAR IN A ROW

Yes we are. For the 12th year in a row we are the #1 Listing agents in our "farm" at Tatum and Bell Road, called the Foothills neighborhood. These homes were built form 1990 to 1995 by Hancock Homes, Courtland Homes and Maracay Homes. We have consistently sold more than any other agent. Last year, 2007, we sold or rented every home listed. We had a 100% Success rate! It was a tough year but a successful year.

The Cameron Team had an 80% Success Rate in 2007

I am very proud to report that we had an 80% success rate for homes listed for sale and lease in 2007. This only counts the homes leaving the market. Also, for clarification, some of homes that leased they were using a leasing agent. We use to refer all rentals out, but last year we worked the rental market too. Some of our sellers still use my aunt, Pam Desmond, as their property manager and so she would handle their rental needs. Also, I say exited the market because, for example, a home we listed in December that has not left the market yet cannot be counted against us. For comparison, of the homes listed in the MLS for sale only 32% left the market because they sold.

RESALE HOME COMPARISON 2002 TO 2007

I went back and tracked the homes sales over the past 6 years. You see our supply issue is dependent on our demand issue. So many people have said, " you can't expect the same sales of the crazy years" and I agree with them I expect our demand to be similar to the average of 2002 and 2003. That would be about 75,000 sales per year. Well below the "heyday" of about 105,000 sales, but above the 54,409 of last year. You see if 20,000 more homes were purchased than our inventory would not be so high. So what we really need is to increase demand. That will occur as prices drop, due to affordability and perceived value; interest rates drop, again affordability and getting the good rate while available; lenders quit changing guidelines, they are making loans more difficult NOW that should have been done at the top of the market not the bottom; confidence returns to the market, many people are renting while waiting for a bottom; and finally, as the liquidity scare diminishes, this will be the outcome of demand returning to the market.

So, for a buyer today. Look for the right home priced right for today's value and re-enter the market. You will become part of the solution and not part of the problem. Try not to time the market. Once it hits bottom, past history shows we can expect a 10% jump the next year. You don't want to settle for the "it will due" home because you are jumping back in the market, when dream homes are available now.

Weak Retail Sales for December

I expect the consumer will start to cut back on spending as the economy continues to slow.

Retailers Had Weak Sales in December
By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO,
Associated Press
Posted: 2008-01-10 11:20:07
NEW YORK (AP) - The economic outlook became more uncertain Thursday after many of the nation's big retailers reported weaker than expected holiday sales, the result of consumers cutting their spending due to higher energy prices and the ongoing housing slump. Many merchants failed to meet their already lowered sales projections during December, and their performance during this critical sales period led some stores to reduce earnings outlooks for the fourth quarter.
http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/retailers-had-weak-sales-in-december/n20080110112009990022

2007 END OF YEAR SUPPLY STATS, 42,912 SINGLE FAMILY HOMES FOR SALE AS OF 1/1/08

Sorry, this is a little late being posted, but better late than never!

Every year through the holidays inventory levels drop, that was no different in 2007. It started a little later and was not as furious as in the past. I believe more sellers are understanding our market is drifting lower and the sooner you sale the more money you get.

Over inventory levels here in Maricopa county peaked, well they peaked first in June at 45,000 single family homes. These numbers are all collected from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, ARMLS. However, as our market was on the road to recover it received a punch in the nose. "Sub-prime II" hit in August and demand dropped by 25% from its already low level. That hurt. Demand had caught up to supply and it took 12 weeks to add 1,000 homes to inventory, where it had taken 2-3 weeks earlier in the year. Anyway, "sub-prime II" made inventory levels grow again. This time they peaked at about 47,800 homes in October. From there we dropped to 42,912 SFH, single family homes, by the first of the year. This was a good sign. Levels dropped by 10%.

Last year, 2006, our inventory levels dropped by 16% from their peak to the first of the year. They peaked in September at 39,950 single family homes according to ARMLS. Then by the first of the year the level dropped to 33,593. In 2007, the inventory leveled off earlier in the year. The Phoenix resale market was moving into recover and then boom. In August, it was like a bomb going off. However, the dust has settled and its time to get back on the road to recovery.

This Friday at Dodge Theatre, The Music of Led Zeppelin

Lisa and I went to this concert last year. We had a blast. I thought it was just the Phoenix Symphony performing the music of Led Zeppelin, it wasn't. This band called Zebra and their lead singer, Randy Jackson, are performing The Music of Led Zeppelin and backed up by the Phoenix Symphony. It was an AWESOME event. We are going again on Friday. I highly suggest any Led Zeppelin fan to attend! I believe tickets are still available.

Concert Tickets for: The Music of Led Zeppelin

The Music of Led Zeppelin featuring The Phoenix Symphony

Friday, January 11, 2008
Dodge Theatre
Doors: 7:00 pm Show: 8:00 pm

400 West Washington
Phoenix, AZ 85003

Sold in DC Ranch by The Cameron Team!

Whoops - forgot to mention this one in December! The Cameron Team sold a beautiful 3700 sq.ft. model home built by Engle to one of our buyers. This awesome home is located right across the street from a beautiful park in DC Ranch!

8904 N. 15th Lane - Pending in Central Cooridor

Our first sale for the new year and we found our own buyer!! The Cameron Team put this home under contract after diligently pursuing both buyer and seller to create a deal. We look forward to a smooth closing!

Another Cameron Team Listing Sold! 1401 N. Bel Air Drive

After being on the market with another agent for over a year, one of Jeff's clients referred this seller to The Cameron Team. In less than a month, The Cameron Team sold this home and successfully closed escrow on Jan. 4th, 2008!!

RECESSION ON THE HORIZON

I don’t know how anyone can argue against the fact that a recession is coming. The only question is how severe. Friday’s employment report showed a jump in unemployment of .3%, from 4.7% to 5%. I heard, on CNBC, every time since WWII that unemployment jumped this much a recession followed. The low unemployment has been keeping the consumer flush with cash and they do nothing but spend that money. The problems all stem from the housing and liquidity crisis.
The state of Arizona is in shock over the looming $1 Billion dollar budget deficit. How did they not see this coming? New home sales are down dramatically. Let’s look at how this affects tax collections. Every new home is taxed at about 5%, this tax is paid to the state as sales tax. So, in 2006 we built approximately 50,000 new homes with an average cost of about $325,000; then how much tax was collected? Well 50,000 x 325,000 x .05 = $812,500,000. And if in 2007, we sold 30,000 homes with an average cost of say $300,000; how much tax would that create? Well that would be 30,000 x 300,000 x 0.05 = $450,000,000. Therefore, the difference between $812,500,000 and $450,000,000 is $362,500,000. There is 1/3 of the budget shortfall.
Next look at the 40,000 Realtors and see how they can affect the budget. So, if on average they paid in $500 each that would be 40,000 x 250 = $10,000,000. Now with potentially 40% of the agents out of business you can add another $4,000,000 to the shortage. Not huge, but it keeps adding up. Now there are the loan officers, appraisers, title agents and all their assistants. Easily ½ but probably all of the $1 Billion state tax shortage can be traced back to housing.
I guess I went off on a tangent again!

December Jobs Report + 18,000 Jobs

The housing issues and liquidity crisis are starting to make their way into the rest of the market. A mere 18,000 jobs were created in December and unemployment jumped from 4.7% to 5%. I read before that it takes about 180,000 new jobs per month to keep up with the new job seekers, basically to keep unemployment steady. It seems high to me, but that is what the talking heads on CNBC reported. I hope the job frontier in Arizona bodes better. One thing the jobs report does not show is all the now unemployed Realtors and Loan officers that don't receive a regular pay check because they are on commission.

Here is the article about the jobs report.

Unemployment Up, Stoking Recession Fears
By JEANNINE AVERSA,
AP
Posted: 2008-01-04 17:15:45
WASHINGTON (AP) - Wary employers clamped down on hiring and pushed the unemployment rate to a two-year high of 5 percent in December, an ominous sign that the economy may slide into recession. President Bush explored a rescue package, including a tax cut, with his economic advisers.

http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/unemployment-up-stoking-recession-fears/n20080104171509990023