Valley Home Sales 2nd Highest in Past 23 Weeks

As you all know, I am a numbers guy. Last week was the first full week of the new year, no holiday. We registered 678 new Pending home sales. This is for Single Family Residences only, SFR. I have to continue tracking in the same pattern I started in January of 2005. Back to home sales, this past week was second to the week before Thanksgiving. That week was the highest I recorded since "sub-prime II" in August. That week I recorded 693 home sales. So we were not too far from being the best week since the August Bomb!

Although home sales are up, they are still way below what we would expect in a normal market. Right now our problem isn't necessarily supply, although there is an oversupply, it is demand. We need to get the sales back up to a more normal number. In January of 2006, we averaged 1,160 sales per week. In January of 2007, we averaged 977 sales per week and in January of 2003 we averaged 1,104 sales per week. I would like to see us break the 1,000 sales per week and then head into the 1,300 to 1,400 level through the selling season. These were the numbers in 2003. Once Demand picks up, unless there is a rush to the market, supply we begin to come down to normal levels. According to experts just under a 6 month supply of homes is more expected or "normal." Over 6 months is a buyer's market and under 6 months is a seller's market. With more normal sales of 1,257 per week, the average for the full year in 2003. Then a 6 month supply or 26 weeks times 1,257 equals 32,682 homes for sale. Today there are about 44,400 Single Family Homes for sale. Again this all based on demand increasing to the levels of 2003. I believe there is a lot of pent up demand, people renting waiting for the market to change.

I am seeing many buyers re-enter the market right now. I have a half dozen buyers that do not have a home to sell that I am working with right now. I am hearing the same message, "since seller's are getting more reasonable, we are ready to buy. But only when we see value. We don't want to over pay for a home today."