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As my tracking continues to show, sales are up in Arizona as they are in the West. With a 6.4% jump in the West we are leading the country. Sales were flat in the South, down 6% in the Midwest and down 4.4% in the North East. Please enjoy the report below.
Existing-Home Sales Slip in April
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP
WASHINGTON (May 23) - Sales of existing homes fell for the eighth time in the past nine months, with the backlog of unsold single-family homes rising to the highest level in more than two decades.
Region-by-Region Data
In the West, sales were up 6.4 percent -- a region of the country where prices fell by the sharpest amount.
The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales dropped by 1 percent to 4.89 million units, matching the all-time low set in January. These records go back to 1999. The median price for an existing home dropped 8 percent, compared with a year ago, to $202,300. Analysts predicted further price declines given the huge backlog of unsold single-family homes, which rose in April to 10.7 months supply at the current sales pace, the highest inventory level since June 1985. The April sales drop was slightly smaller than had been expected. The housing industry is being battered by a prolonged slump that has seen sales and prices decline and mortgage foreclosures soar, the aftermath of a five-year housing boom. Read the rest of the article here: http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/existing-home-sales-slip-in-april/20080523100809990001
Friday, May 23, 2008
Thursday, May 22, 2008
METRO PHOENIX INVENTORY LEVELS - WHERE ARE THEY AND WHAT IS NORMAL
After doing my daily analysis of today's inventory levels and sales of single family homes, I pondered on what to expect. In today's market inventory levels have been declining, but ever so slightly. This is a good sign, but how good?
I went through and ran some more numbers. Over the past 6 years we have averaged 65,315 single family home sales per year. Now that is an average, but also the same level as 2003. I feel that is our next goal, get back to the same sales levels as in 2003. This probably won't happen this year, but is very possible for next year as our market continues to recover. Based on those sales numbers, what would be the expected inventory level? Home sales are very seasonal. So, I computed the weighted average for sales over the past 6 years. It told me what I knew, the strong months are February through July. That is when the sell, they close March through August. We see drops in the rest of the year with the holidays being the slowest months of the year. Dah!
I used the weighted average that I created and established an expected 6 month inventory level based on those numbers. We use 6 months of sales as a pivot point moving from a buyer's market to a seller's market. Less than 6 months is a seller's market and more than 6 months is a buyer's market.
Based on a year with sales of 65,000 single family homes, than this time of year the weighted 6 month level would be 37,790. We currently have 44,400 single family homes listed for sale. That would be 7.1 months supply, a buyer's market. But wait, we are not on track for 65,000 sales this year. However, trying to see where we are today with supply and demand this is encouraging. What I am trying to say here is that we are not far from getting back to the pivot point between a buyer's market and a seller's market. We are definitely not as bad is it was just a few months ago.
On the supply side, we need to see 6,000 homes come off the market. There are so many over priced homes on the market right now. If they would just get it, "they are the problem." Their value would not be dissipating so quickly if they were not listed for sale. They are not going to sell at a price greater than today's value, the banks won't allow it!
On the demand side, demand is rising nicely. Thanks to the new FHA limits and Fannie Mae bringing the 3% down back into the market. Right now we are on track to sell at a rate of 5,500 home in May. To be at a level of 65,000 sales per year, using our weighted average, we would expect sales of 6,300 this May. So, we are off by about 200 sales per week.
With today's actual demand and using the weighted average to find the 6 month supply, that supply number would be 33,000. Based on today's sales, we have 11,000 too many homes on the market.
Remember the market just started recovering. We have 7,700 home in the Pending category. Thus we expect closings to continue to increase. At what rate, time will only tell.
There you have it, read into the numbers what you see. I see a recovering market that is still a buyer's market. Thus values will continue to have downward pressure.
Thanks for your time! It can't be replaced.
Jeff Cameron
I went through and ran some more numbers. Over the past 6 years we have averaged 65,315 single family home sales per year. Now that is an average, but also the same level as 2003. I feel that is our next goal, get back to the same sales levels as in 2003. This probably won't happen this year, but is very possible for next year as our market continues to recover. Based on those sales numbers, what would be the expected inventory level? Home sales are very seasonal. So, I computed the weighted average for sales over the past 6 years. It told me what I knew, the strong months are February through July. That is when the sell, they close March through August. We see drops in the rest of the year with the holidays being the slowest months of the year. Dah!
I used the weighted average that I created and established an expected 6 month inventory level based on those numbers. We use 6 months of sales as a pivot point moving from a buyer's market to a seller's market. Less than 6 months is a seller's market and more than 6 months is a buyer's market.
Based on a year with sales of 65,000 single family homes, than this time of year the weighted 6 month level would be 37,790. We currently have 44,400 single family homes listed for sale. That would be 7.1 months supply, a buyer's market. But wait, we are not on track for 65,000 sales this year. However, trying to see where we are today with supply and demand this is encouraging. What I am trying to say here is that we are not far from getting back to the pivot point between a buyer's market and a seller's market. We are definitely not as bad is it was just a few months ago.
On the supply side, we need to see 6,000 homes come off the market. There are so many over priced homes on the market right now. If they would just get it, "they are the problem." Their value would not be dissipating so quickly if they were not listed for sale. They are not going to sell at a price greater than today's value, the banks won't allow it!
On the demand side, demand is rising nicely. Thanks to the new FHA limits and Fannie Mae bringing the 3% down back into the market. Right now we are on track to sell at a rate of 5,500 home in May. To be at a level of 65,000 sales per year, using our weighted average, we would expect sales of 6,300 this May. So, we are off by about 200 sales per week.
With today's actual demand and using the weighted average to find the 6 month supply, that supply number would be 33,000. Based on today's sales, we have 11,000 too many homes on the market.
Remember the market just started recovering. We have 7,700 home in the Pending category. Thus we expect closings to continue to increase. At what rate, time will only tell.
There you have it, read into the numbers what you see. I see a recovering market that is still a buyer's market. Thus values will continue to have downward pressure.
Thanks for your time! It can't be replaced.
Jeff Cameron
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Saturday, May 17, 2008
SCOTTSDALE LAGS VALLEY AS HOME SALES CLIMB
Yes, we are at 2 year highs when looking at the weekly sales here in the valley. Yet homes in Scottsdale are not moving. Most of that is about pricing. We see homes selling, and some at what I would consider over value prices, but we don't see the type of activity we would expect in Scottsdale. Why is there so much activity in the West valley? Two reasons: Prices and mortgage availability. Prices have come down dramatically and buyers are swooping in to pick up the good values. Plus with FHA raising their limits to $357,000 purchase price, that brings plenty of liquidity to that market.
FHA does not help most of Scottsdale. Two things are hurting the Scottsdale market: Prices and mortgages. Prices have come down, but not as low as they will go. I was out previewing for a client in McCormick Ranch last week. I looked at 12 competing properties ranging from $489,000 to $675,000. I capped it at $675,000, because there were plenty of other homes at higher prices that would have fit in this group. That was the point, this group of homes were very similar. Yeah, there were some variances and they were not all the same value. But none had a $200,000 variance in values. So, what I am saying is pricing does not represent value properly. The other issue is mortgages, this price range and higher price ranges put the mortgage in a JUMBO status. Interest rates on JUMBO are still very high and this is hurting demand. Maybe as prices come down we will see rates drop. The risk will be lessened as prices drop. Let's hope the banks respond with those lower rates.
FHA does not help most of Scottsdale. Two things are hurting the Scottsdale market: Prices and mortgages. Prices have come down, but not as low as they will go. I was out previewing for a client in McCormick Ranch last week. I looked at 12 competing properties ranging from $489,000 to $675,000. I capped it at $675,000, because there were plenty of other homes at higher prices that would have fit in this group. That was the point, this group of homes were very similar. Yeah, there were some variances and they were not all the same value. But none had a $200,000 variance in values. So, what I am saying is pricing does not represent value properly. The other issue is mortgages, this price range and higher price ranges put the mortgage in a JUMBO status. Interest rates on JUMBO are still very high and this is hurting demand. Maybe as prices come down we will see rates drop. The risk will be lessened as prices drop. Let's hope the banks respond with those lower rates.
FANNIE MAE TO REDUCE DOWNPAYMENT REQUIREMENTS
Right on, a step in the right direction. I have been shocked that Fannie Mae and other banks have made is so much harder to qualify for a loan right now. They should have made is harder in 2005 and 2006, as the bubble grew. Take away demand and you avoid the imbalance. But they didn't.
It now seems that they intentionally push property values lower by making it harder to qualify for mortgages over the past year. Now that property values have dropped, the risk is much lower for new borrowers and the banks. Yeah, property values have dropped from 20 to 60% in the metro Phoenix area since the peak. So, now that prices are lower they are reacting by reducing the down payment requirement. This is great news. We need to continue to add demand to the market and this move will add demand. It is all about the balance of supply and demand. That is what controls everything, I mean everything.
Demand has been growing here in the valley. The 4 week moving average of valley home sales hit 1,220 last week, the highest since May of 2006. However, we still have over 45,000 single family homes listed for sale. With over 2,500 foreclosures last month, we know their is and will continue to be an abundant supply of homes. Every little bit we can do to add to demand will help us move towards a supply and demand balance more quickly.
Thank You Fannie Mae! What's next! How about the JUMBO market, that is our biggest problem here in Scottsdale.
Here is the article from the AP about Fannie Mae:
Fannie Mae reduces downpayment requirements
May. 16, 2008 09:13 AMAssociated Press
WASHINGTON - Fannie Mae is doing away with higher minimum down-payment requirements for borrowers in parts of the country where home prices are dropping.
The government-sponsored mortgage finance company said Friday it will require minimum down payments of between 3 percent and 5 percent for all loans that it guarantees. That replaces a December policy that required a higher minimum if the loan was for a home in a zip code with declining real estate prices.
Washington-based Fannie says the move is part of its effort to help resuscitate the flagging mortgage market.
Fannie Mae and its smaller sibling, Freddie Mac, had been under intense pressure to relax lending policies that had been tightened in recent months as foreclosures and defaults skyrocketed.
Richard Gaylord, president of the National Association of Realtors, said in an April letter to Fannie Mae, that because the health of a housing market can differ widely - even in the same zip code - in a particular neighborhood can differ widely, neighborhoods with healthy housing markets are often stigmatized.
Gaylord applauded the decision on Friday. "These new policies will help stabilize the credit markets, which will help encourage buyers to come back into the housing market," he said in a statement.
A Freddie Mac spokesman said the McLean, Va.-based company earlier this month adjusted its policies to make 5 percent down payments available in declining markets. Rather than defining those markets by zip code, Freddie Mac allows appraisers to make that determination, he said.
The announcement comes as lawmakers near a bipartisan agreement on a housing bill that could bring stricter regulation for the two companies. Senators are considering tapping a fund drawn from Fannie and Freddie's profits to pay for a new foreclosure-prevention program.
Congress created Fannie and Freddie to pump money into the home-mortgage market by buying home loans from banks and other lenders and bundling them into securities for sale on Wall Street. Together they hold or guarantee about $5.1 trillion in home-mortgage debt.
Fannie Mae shares fell $80 cents, or 2.60 percent, to $29.45 in morning trading. Shares of Freddie Mac fell 70 cents, or 2.57 percent, to $26.57.
It now seems that they intentionally push property values lower by making it harder to qualify for mortgages over the past year. Now that property values have dropped, the risk is much lower for new borrowers and the banks. Yeah, property values have dropped from 20 to 60% in the metro Phoenix area since the peak. So, now that prices are lower they are reacting by reducing the down payment requirement. This is great news. We need to continue to add demand to the market and this move will add demand. It is all about the balance of supply and demand. That is what controls everything, I mean everything.
Demand has been growing here in the valley. The 4 week moving average of valley home sales hit 1,220 last week, the highest since May of 2006. However, we still have over 45,000 single family homes listed for sale. With over 2,500 foreclosures last month, we know their is and will continue to be an abundant supply of homes. Every little bit we can do to add to demand will help us move towards a supply and demand balance more quickly.
Thank You Fannie Mae! What's next! How about the JUMBO market, that is our biggest problem here in Scottsdale.
Here is the article from the AP about Fannie Mae:
Fannie Mae reduces downpayment requirements
May. 16, 2008 09:13 AMAssociated Press
WASHINGTON - Fannie Mae is doing away with higher minimum down-payment requirements for borrowers in parts of the country where home prices are dropping.
The government-sponsored mortgage finance company said Friday it will require minimum down payments of between 3 percent and 5 percent for all loans that it guarantees. That replaces a December policy that required a higher minimum if the loan was for a home in a zip code with declining real estate prices.
Washington-based Fannie says the move is part of its effort to help resuscitate the flagging mortgage market.
Fannie Mae and its smaller sibling, Freddie Mac, had been under intense pressure to relax lending policies that had been tightened in recent months as foreclosures and defaults skyrocketed.
Richard Gaylord, president of the National Association of Realtors, said in an April letter to Fannie Mae, that because the health of a housing market can differ widely - even in the same zip code - in a particular neighborhood can differ widely, neighborhoods with healthy housing markets are often stigmatized.
Gaylord applauded the decision on Friday. "These new policies will help stabilize the credit markets, which will help encourage buyers to come back into the housing market," he said in a statement.
A Freddie Mac spokesman said the McLean, Va.-based company earlier this month adjusted its policies to make 5 percent down payments available in declining markets. Rather than defining those markets by zip code, Freddie Mac allows appraisers to make that determination, he said.
The announcement comes as lawmakers near a bipartisan agreement on a housing bill that could bring stricter regulation for the two companies. Senators are considering tapping a fund drawn from Fannie and Freddie's profits to pay for a new foreclosure-prevention program.
Congress created Fannie and Freddie to pump money into the home-mortgage market by buying home loans from banks and other lenders and bundling them into securities for sale on Wall Street. Together they hold or guarantee about $5.1 trillion in home-mortgage debt.
Fannie Mae shares fell $80 cents, or 2.60 percent, to $29.45 in morning trading. Shares of Freddie Mac fell 70 cents, or 2.57 percent, to $26.57.
Friday, May 16, 2008
Rates
30 Year Fixed 5.75%
5 Year ARM 5.25%
FHA 6%
Rates a couple of times a day. Please call for more information.
Staci McCarville
Indymac Bank
480-538-1402
5 Year ARM 5.25%
FHA 6%
Rates a couple of times a day. Please call for more information.
Staci McCarville
Indymac Bank
480-538-1402
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Market Review and Forecast, May 2008
I am often asked, "what is going on in the market Jeff?"
First, we know the run up in home prices in early 2005, was caused by a severe imbalance in the supply and demand of homes. Supply was practically nothing and demand was at all time highs. Many buyers/investors got sub-prime loans. They had inadequate credit or income and no method of paying the payments should the market turn or their payments increase and were hoping to continue the valuation ride up.
The balance of supply and demand has been correcting since March of 2005. Supply jumped by 40% in October of 2005. I was shocked that home prices continued to increase into 2006. This market is so huge it moves like a big oil tanker being pushed by a dingy. Prices topped out in 2006 and started to slide. But inventory levels dropped from October of 2006 to Jan 1 of 2007, by 20%. We had 34,000 homes on the market at that time. Although the outlying areas took a beating, it appeared that the pricier parts of town, Scottsdale-PV-central corridor-Awatukee-Arcadia, and parts of Phoenix made it through holding their value.
The balance of supply and demand has been correcting since March of 2005. Supply jumped by 40% in October of 2005. I was shocked that home prices continued to increase into 2006. This market is so huge it moves like a big oil tanker being pushed by a dingy. Prices topped out in 2006 and started to slide. But inventory levels dropped from October of 2006 to Jan 1 of 2007, by 20%. We had 34,000 homes on the market at that time. Although the outlying areas took a beating, it appeared that the pricier parts of town, Scottsdale-PV-central corridor-Awatukee-Arcadia, and parts of Phoenix made it through holding their value.
As sales increased in February of 2007, the market was looking good but shaky. We reached a high of 1,268 home sales per week at that time. Then in March, I noticed an issue. Home sales were dropping and dropping fast, down to about 850 per week.
This was the "sub-prime" meltdown. We lost all the sub-prime mortgage products. This took a big bite out of demand. Home prices in Scottsdale started to weaken, but not bad. Then in August we had "Alt A" meltdown. Another mortgage product disappears and demand drops further. Hundreds of banks went out of business. The Fed came in and pumped 3/4 of a trillion dollars into the system to stop a full world financial disaster. It worked.
I have a professional real estate coach and he told me, "sell your home and rent. You will be able to buy it back for a 30% discount in a year or two," he said. I didn't want to and didn't follow his direction. He was from Florida, and at the time I thought they got hit worse than us, it won't get that bad in Scottsdale.
As we went into the off season and holidays, home prices in Scottsdale were down, but not bad. Sellers were holding their own on the prices. I was surprised. Then spring hit. It was like all the sellers from last fall said, "I thought it was the time of year, but now it is spring and no sale, OK lower the price." Prices were dropping like rocks.
This is when the short sales and foreclosures started hitting our area and hitting it hard. There is a boat load of foreclosures coming and they will continue to push our market lower. In September we foreclosed on 1,200 homes. That was the same as all of 2006. In January, 2,000 homes were foreclosed on and then in March, it was 2,500.
I listed a home in Arcadia in October. A similar home just closed escrow for $675,000. My seller insisted on starting at that number. We have now "chased the market" down. We kept lowering, but too slowly to catch the market. Finally the home sold for $500,000. I think we are going to look at that as a great number in a few months.
Back to the market. Inventory levels are coming down right now, but slowly. Sales are increasing. Last week was the highest since before the sub-prime meltdown. We have nearly 45,000 single family homes on the market and are selling around 1,250 per week. That is an 8.3 month supply of homes. Most of the new homes coming on the market are short sales and REO(bank-owned foreclosure homes). They are usually in poor condition. So, they will have to compete for the buyers with their price. The market is getting better, but prices are probably going to continue their slide until next summer or the following spring. There will be different areas of strength. We expect to see a "U" shaped bottom, versus a "V" shaped bottom.
I looked in North Scottsdale and compared the sales to see what the numbers show.
Here is what they show:
Time Period march to may 07 oct to end 07 first Q 2008 since Q1 08 to now
Time Period Ave Price Ave Square Ft Ave Price per SF
Q2 2007 ---$832,349 ---2,878 ---$289.21
Q4 2007 ---$840,026 ---2,981 ---$281.79
Q1 2008 ---$712,444 ---2,768 ---$257.39
Q2 2008 ---$591,123 ---2,625--- $225.19
Based on this area alone the market is clearly down over 20%.
I want you to imagine for a moment. Imagine you want to buy a house today. You have a ton of homes to choose from. The media is telling you not to buy today, because it will be cheaper in the near future. How are you going to act??????
Will you pay more than the last sale?
Will you care if the last sale was an REO?
What buyers are saying is: I want turn key, the best price and a good deal. They are fearful of buying now and the home dropping another 20%. I am telling my buyers to expect further declines. But I feel comfortable selling a home to a buyer with a 3 to 5 year time frame.
I expect home values to drop through the year, firm up next spring and stay flat through next year. In 2010, we should see some appreciation.
Based on this area alone the market is clearly down over 20%.
I want you to imagine for a moment. Imagine you want to buy a house today. You have a ton of homes to choose from. The media is telling you not to buy today, because it will be cheaper in the near future. How are you going to act??????
Will you pay more than the last sale?
Will you care if the last sale was an REO?
What buyers are saying is: I want turn key, the best price and a good deal. They are fearful of buying now and the home dropping another 20%. I am telling my buyers to expect further declines. But I feel comfortable selling a home to a buyer with a 3 to 5 year time frame.
I expect home values to drop through the year, firm up next spring and stay flat through next year. In 2010, we should see some appreciation.
The big question is: What is today's value? (My answer is similar to that of the National Association of Realtors and was molded by the different coaching calls and my experience. I have been selling homes since 1995, over 1,000 home to date.)
Answer: Based on recent, last 60 days, sales and competition on the market, we price your home. Now we monitor showings, we should see 2 to 4 per week in this market. We are in season. If we don't get that activity, we missed the price. If we do get the activity, what are they saying? What is the feedback? If no one is interested nor saying good things about the home, like we want to buy it, then the activity is saying we are close. But we need to adjust the price again. We want to get in front of the market before it moves lower.
Call Jeff for a personalized Market Assessment for your situation. 480-502-7699
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